Castle Rockers 151-3; our call 55%. Wolves 150-5; our call 45%.
ETPL|1, final: Castle Rockers won by 7 wicketsSunday 20 September 2026, 2:15pm ISTThe Village, Malahide, DublinNeutral ground: the Castle Rockers are the designated home side
Wolves 150-5 (20 overs). Castle Rockers 151-3 (18.4 overs).
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 12 innings since Sept 2023.
7 of 11 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 57% (17 of 30). European T20 Premier League, T20Is and other internationals.
Edinburgh Castle Rockers are favoured, with a win chance of 55 per cent and a team strength about 6 runs better than Belfast Wolves. The edge comes mostly from bowling: Edinburgh's attack is rated 3 runs better than average, while Belfast's is 0.6 runs worse. Edinburgh also hold a small batting advantage of about 2 runs.
The runs picture points to a par score of 169, with the first innings projected at 165. Chasing has been the better option here: 7 of the last 11 games at this ground were won by the side batting second. The sharpest angle is Edinburgh's bowling against a Belfast middle order that has shown form, but the overall strength gap and chase-friendly conditions give Edinburgh the edge.
11 wkts, econ 7.15 in the last 10. Rated +3.7 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.7 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. His last 10 T20 matches brought 11 wickets at an economy of 7.15, and he also offers batting depth with 150 runs at a strike rate of 145.6 in that window.
16 wkts, econ 7.51 in the last 10. Rated +1.6 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.6 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He took 16 wickets at an economy of 7.51 in his last 10 T20 matches, a strong recent record.
283 runs, SR 163, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.4 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.4 runs better than an average batter. He has 283 runs at a strike rate of 162.6 in his last 10 T20 matches, all in the European T20 Premier League, with 17 sixes.
261 runs, SR 156, 16 sixes in the last 10. Rated +1.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.7 runs better than an average batter. He scored 261 runs at a strike rate of 156.3 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 16 sixes.
12 wkts, econ 8.11 in the last 10. Rated −1.1 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.1 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. His last 10 T20 matches brought 12 wickets but at an economy of 8.11, and Belfast's bowling unit is rated 0.6 runs worse than average overall.
Dublin, Ireland · 13 ETPL matches here
reached par (169). Median 160.
Recent ETPL first innings average 163; games here have scored about 2% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 129, 2018–2022 201, 2023 onward 168.
Sunday 20 September, 14:15–17:50: 16.9 °C on average, humidity 54%, wind 11 km/h gusting to 30, no rain.
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon-Jon Smuts1 over215 runs, SR 128; 4 wkts, econ 5.71 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
| 2 | Ross Adair154 runs, SR 186 | +2.0 | – |
| 3 | Andries Gouskeeper231 runs, SR 119 | +1.6 | – |
| 4 | Brandon McMullen346 runs, SR 154 | +1.1 | – |
| 5 | Laurie Evans155 runs, SR 107 | +0.2 | – |
| 6 | Gareth Delany220 runs, SR 149 | +0.7 | – |
| 7 | Mitchell Santner4 overs150 runs, SR 146; 11 wkts, econ 7.15 | +0.5 | +3.7 |
| 8 | Tom Curran4 overs17 wkts, econ 7.38 | – | 0.0 |
| 9 | Mark Watt4 overs5 wkts, econ 7.57 | – | −1.0 |
| 10 | Jack Jarvis3 overs11 wkts, econ 8.83 | – | −1.3 |
| 11 | Trent Boult4 overs16 wkts, econ 7.51 | – | +1.6 |
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harry Manenti1 over241 runs, SR 114; 3 wkts, econ 8.23 | −3.5 | −0.1 |
| 2 | Paul Stirling180 runs, SR 154 | −0.6 | – |
| 3 | Lorcan Tuckerkeeper192 runs, SR 122 | +1.1 | – |
| 4 | Mark Chapman283 runs, SR 163 | +2.4 | – |
| 5 | David Miller261 runs, SR 156 | +1.7 | – |
| 6 | Glenn Maxwell1 over221 runs, SR 167; 4 wkts, econ 7.57 | +2.1 | −0.1 |
| 7 | Chris Jordan3 overs46 runs, SR 112; 9 wkts, econ 9.35 | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Mark Adair4 overs12 wkts, econ 7.79 | – | −0.1 |
| 9 | Fred Klaassen3 overs10 wkts, econ 7.09 | – | +0.4 |
| 10 | Matthew Humphreys4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.66 | – | −0.2 |
| 11 | Saurabh Netravalkar4 overs12 wkts, econ 8.11 | – | −1.1 |