Josh Brown
311 runs, SR 150, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.8 runs better than an average opener. He has 311 runs at a strike rate of 150.2 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 20 sixes.
Renegades
ParBatting+3.3Bowling−3.8Overall−0.5
Scorchers
ParBatting+6.9Bowling+1.4Overall+8.3
Renegades bat first
First innings161
Scorchers chase in16.4 overs
68%Scorchers win
32%Renegades win
Scorchers bat first
First innings176
Renegades short by42 runs
63%Scorchers win
37%Renegades win
First innings
161Renegades bat first
176Scorchers bat first
170Par
178Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 28 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
64%
18 of 28 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 47% (48 of 103). IPL and T20Is; no BBL match has been played here.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
2%of games in dry weather at major Indian grounds were shortened (15 of 901).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a scenario. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
21%of games in wet weather at major Indian grounds were shortened or washed out (18 of 87).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a scenario. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
2%of games in dry weather at major Indian grounds were shortened (15 of 901).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a scenario. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Mitch MarshBatting standout, Scorchers: 501 runs, SR 172 (last 10)
Calvin HarrisonBowling standout, Scorchers: 15 wkts, econ 6.55 (last 10)
RenegadesBowling weakness: −3.8 runs a game. Sutherland econ 9.15 in the last 10.
Perth Scorchers favoured by about 9 runs on paper
Perth Scorchers are favoured, with a 65% win chance and a team strength about 9 runs above Melbourne Renegades. The edge comes from both batting and bowling: Perth are 3.6 runs better with the bat and 5.1 runs better with the ball. Melbourne Renegades' batting is 3.3 runs above average, but their bowling is 3.8 runs below average, leaving them half a run below average overall.
Perth project 176 batting first, Melbourne 161, against a par score of 170. Chasers have won 18 of the last 28 games here, and the recent first-innings average here is 178 from 28 innings since September 2023. The sharpest angle is Perth's batting: Mitch Marsh has 501 runs at a strike rate of 172 in his last 10 T20 matches, and Cooper Connolly has 314 runs at 157.8 in his last 10.
The case for the Renegades
- Batting is rated 3.3 runs above average, led by Josh Brown's 2.8 runs better than an average opener.
- Josh Brown has 311 runs at a strike rate of 150.2 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Jason Behrendorff is rated 0.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
Batting standout
Bowling weakness
Will Sutherland
7 wkts, econ 9.15 in the last 10. Rated −2.3 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.3 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 7 wickets at an economy of 9.15 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Scorchers
- Rated 8.3 runs above average overall, with batting 6.9 runs above average and bowling 1.4 runs above average.
- Mitch Marsh has 501 runs at a strike rate of 172 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Calvin Harrison has 15 wickets at an economy of 6.55 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Mitch Marsh
501 runs, SR 172, 31 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.0 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5 runs better than an average opener. He has 501 runs at a strike rate of 172 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 31 sixes.
Bowling standout
Calvin Harrison
15 wkts, econ 6.55 in the last 10. Rated +2.5 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler over three overs. He has 15 wickets at an economy of 6.55 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting weaknesses
Sam Fanning
133 runs, SR 142, 6 sixes in the last 5. Rated −1.4 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.4 runs worse than an average opener on limited data. He has 133 runs at a strike rate of 141.5 in his last five T20 matches.
Joel Curtis
1 runs, SR 50 in the last 1. Rated −1.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.7 runs worse than an average batter on limited data. He has 1 run in his last T20 match.
MA Chidambaram Stadium
Chennai, India · 0 BBL matches here
Chepauk has staged cricket since 1916 and held its first Test in February 1934.
- Opened
- 1916
- Capacity
- 38,200 seats
- Ends
- V Pattabhiraman Gate End · Anna Pavilion End
- Home to
- Chennai Super Kings (IPL)
Every first innings here
47 of 105reached par (170). Median 165.
Under par Par or more
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 2% below their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 163, 2018–2022 157, 2023 onward 175.
100150170200250
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15022%6 of 27
150–16959%17 of 29
170–18965%13 of 20
190–20963%12 of 19
210+88%7 of 8
Weather: dry, clear into the evening
Warm and dry afternoon start, humidity rising after sunset (~17:45 IST) with a light onshore breeze.
These conditions are dry and clear into the evening, with a low rain risk of 6% and no rain expected during the match. At major Indian grounds, only 2% of games in similar dry weather were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at major Indian grounds.
During play: 28.8 °C on average, humidity 68%, wind 15 km/h gusting to 28. Humidity climbs from 60% to 77%; at major Indian grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 14:40–18:15
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Weather: rain-threatened
Humid and overcast with showers most likely between 16:00 and 19:00 IST, overlapping the second half of the match.
Rain-threatened, with showers most likely between 16:00 and 19:00 IST, overlapping the second innings. At major Indian grounds, 21% of games in similar wet weather were shortened or washed out. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility.
During play: 25.9 °C on average, humidity 91%, wind 26 km/h gusting to 45.
Heaviest rain 16:00–19:00, mostly over the second innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 14:40–18:15
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Weather: hot and windy
Unusually hot, dry westerly wind through the afternoon, easing in the evening.
These conditions are hot and windy with a low rain risk. Only 2% of games in similar weather at major Indian grounds were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring. The match starts at 2:40pm IST, with temperatures around 33C and a westerly wind.
During play: 32.7 °C on average, humidity 51%, wind 32 km/h gusting to 52. Humidity climbs from 45% to 58%; at major Indian grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 14:40–18:15
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Melbourne Renegades XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Brown311 runs, SR 150 | +2.8 | – |
| 2 | Jake Fraser-McGurk163 runs, SR 138 | +2.1 | – |
| 3 | Caleb Jewell155 runs, SR 129 | −0.5 | – |
| 4 | Muhammad Rizwankeeper, unsigned204 runs, SR 117 | +0.3 | – |
| 5 | Ollie Peake188 runs, SR 134 | +0.5 | – |
| 6 | Will Sutherland4 overs120 runs, SR 120; 7 wkts, econ 9.15 | +1.5 | −2.3 |
| 7 | Sam Elliott3 overs23 runs, SR 72; 5 wkts, econ 7.96 | −1.7 | −0.6 |
| 8 | Tom Rogers4 overs9 wkts, econ 10.32 | – | −1.0 |
| 9 | Michael Archer2 overs0 wkts, econ 7.50 | – | −1.0 |
| 10 | Callum Stow3 overs6 wkts, econ 7.36 | – | +0.2 |
| 11 | Jason Behrendorff4 overs6 wkts, econ 9.19 | – | +0.9 |
Perth Scorchers XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitch Marsh501 runs, SR 172 | +5.0 | – |
| 2 | Sam Fanningunsigned133 runs, SR 142 | −1.4 | – |
| 3 | Aaron Hardie1 over93 runs, SR 133; 3 wkts, econ 9.02 | +2.1 | −0.1 |
| 4 | Cooper Connolly314 runs, SR 158 | +2.0 | – |
| 5 | Ashton Turner277 runs, SR 180 | +3.2 | – |
| 6 | Joel Curtiskeeper, unsigned1 match, 1 run off 2 balls | −1.7 | – |
| 7 | Ashton Agar4 overs38 runs, SR 106; 7 wkts, econ 8.50 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| 8 | Calvin Harrison3 overs15 wkts, econ 6.55 | – | +2.5 |
| 9 | Jhye Richardson4 overs16 wkts, econ 9.24 | – | +0.4 |
| 10 | Mahli Beardman4 overs14 wkts, econ 7.97 | – | −0.4 |
| 11 | Lance Morris4 overs15 wkts, econ 8.49 (form 20 months old) | – | −0.9 |