Mitch Marsh
501 runs, SR 172, 31 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.0 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5 runs better than an average opener. He has 501 runs at a strike rate of 172.2 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 31 sixes.
Scorchers
ParBatting+6.9Bowling+1.4Overall+8.3
Hurricanes
ParBatting+16.6Bowling+9.6Overall+26.2
Scorchers bat first
First innings166
Hurricanes chase in17 overs
62%Hurricanes win
38%Scorchers win
Hurricanes bat first
First innings177
Scorchers short by41 runs
57%Hurricanes win
43%Scorchers win
First innings
166Scorchers bat first
177Hurricanes bat first
171Par
162Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 18 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
56%
10 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 54% (29 of 54). BBL and T20Is.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Tim DavidBatting standout, Hurricanes: 265 runs, SR 160 (last 10)
Nathan EllisBowling standout, Hurricanes: 13 wkts, econ 7.24 (last 10)
Hobart Hurricanes favoured by about 18 runs on paper
Hobart Hurricanes are favoured, with a 59% win chance, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 18 runs. That edge comes from both batting and bowling: they are 9.7 runs better with the bat and 8.2 runs better with the ball. Perth Scorchers are not far behind, but the Hurricanes' combined strength of 26.2 runs against average outweighs Perth's 8.3.
The runs picture points to a par score of 171, with the Hurricanes projected to make 177 batting first and the Scorchers 166. Chasing has been productive here: chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games. The sharpest angle is that the Hurricanes' batting and bowling edges are both meaningful, while Perth's batting edge is modest and their bowling only slightly better than average.
The case for the Scorchers
- Mitch Marsh is in strong form, rated 5 runs better than an average opener, with 501 runs in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Chasing has been successful here, with chasers winning 10 of the last 18 games.
Batting standout
Batting weaknesses
Sam Fanning
133 runs, SR 142, 6 sixes in the last 5. Rated −1.4 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.4 runs worse than an average opener, with limited data. He has 133 runs at a strike rate of 141.5 in his last 5 T20 matches, the most recent eight months ago.
Joel Curtis
1 runs, SR 50 in the last 1. Rated −1.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.7 runs worse than an average middle-order batter, with limited data. He has 1 run from 1 T20 match, the most recent eight months ago.
The case for the Hurricanes
- Stronger on paper by about 18 runs, with a batting edge of 9.7 runs and a bowling edge of 8.2 runs.
- Tim David and Nathan Ellis are in strong form, rated 5.8 and 4.4 runs better than average respectively.
Batting standout
Tim David
265 runs, SR 160, 21 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5.8 runs better than an average middle-order batter. He has 265 runs at a strike rate of 159.6 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 21 sixes.
Bowling standouts
Nathan Ellis
13 wkts, econ 7.24 in the last 10. Rated +4.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 7.24 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Adam Zampa
11 wkts, econ 7.38 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 11 wickets at an economy of 7.38 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Perth Stadium
Perth, Australia · 48 BBL matches here
Perth Stadium opened in 2018 and took over from the WACA Ground as the city's main cricket venue, with the Scorchers moving across the river that year.
- Opened
- 2018
- Capacity
- 61,266 seats
- Home to
- Perth Scorchers (BBL)
Every first innings here
15 of 54reached par (171). Median 158.
Under par Par or more
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 1% below their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 –, 2018–2022 162, 2023 onward 157.
100150171200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15011%2 of 18
150–16964%9 of 14
170–18950%7 of 14
190–20967%2 of 3
210+100%5 of 5
Weather: dry, like 3 Jan 2018
3 January 2018 at Perth Stadium: 27 °C, humidity 52%, wind 22 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 2 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 20 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Perth Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. Only 4% of games in similar weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The humidity rises from 45% to 62% during the evening, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at Australian BBL grounds. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring. Expect a full game with no interruptions.
During play: 26.7 °C on average, humidity 52%, wind 22 km/h gusting to 48. Humidity climbs from 45% to 62%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 16:15–19:50
120.0mm
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
Weather: wet, like 11 Dec 2016
11 December 2016 at Perth Stadium: 24 °C, humidity 54%, wind 23 km/h and 1.2 mm of rain during the hours of play. 2 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 20 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Perth Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are wet, with 1.2 mm of rain during the hours of play. The wettest spell is 18:00 to 19:00, overlapping the second innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 23.7 °C on average, humidity 54%, wind 23 km/h gusting to 56. Humidity climbs from 43% to 67%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 18:00–19:00, mostly over the second innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 16:15–19:50
120.0mm
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.1mm
160.0mm
170.3mm
180.5mm
190.4mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
Weather: hot, like 24 Dec 2020
24 December 2020 at Perth Stadium: 34 °C, humidity 17%, wind 14 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 2 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 20 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Perth Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are hot and dry, with no rain expected during the match. Only 4% of games in similar weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at these grounds. Expect a full game with no interruptions.
During play: 34.3 °C on average, humidity 17%, wind 14 km/h gusting to 47.
Play 16:15–19:50
120.0mm
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
Perth Scorchers XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitch Marsh501 runs, SR 172 | +5.0 | – |
| 2 | Sam Fanningunsigned133 runs, SR 142 | −1.4 | – |
| 3 | Aaron Hardie1 over93 runs, SR 133; 3 wkts, econ 9.02 | +2.1 | −0.1 |
| 4 | Cooper Connolly314 runs, SR 158 | +2.0 | – |
| 5 | Ashton Turner277 runs, SR 180 | +3.2 | – |
| 6 | Joel Curtiskeeper, unsigned1 match, 1 run off 2 balls | −1.7 | – |
| 7 | Ashton Agar4 overs38 runs, SR 106; 7 wkts, econ 8.50 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| 8 | Calvin Harrison3 overs15 wkts, econ 6.55 | – | +2.5 |
| 9 | Jhye Richardson4 overs16 wkts, econ 9.24 | – | +0.4 |
| 10 | Mahli Beardman4 overs14 wkts, econ 7.97 | – | −0.4 |
| 11 | Lance Morris4 overs15 wkts, econ 8.49 (form 20 months old) | – | −0.9 |
Hobart Hurricanes XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitch Owen206 runs, SR 178 | +5.7 | – |
| 2 | Beau Webster531 runs, SR 152 | +2.3 | – |
| 3 | Ben McDermottkeeper226 runs, SR 139 | +2.1 | – |
| 4 | Nikhil Chaudhary138 runs, SR 115 | +2.3 | – |
| 5 | Tim David265 runs, SR 160 | +5.8 | – |
| 6 | Chris Jordanunsigned, 1 over82 runs, SR 121; 9 wkts, econ 7.90 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Nathan Ellis4 overs13 wkts, econ 7.24 | +0.2 | +4.4 |
| 8 | Adam Zampa4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.38 | – | +3.8 |
| 9 | Rishad Hossainunsigned, 4 overs10 wkts, econ 9.64 | – | +0.2 |
| 10 | Riley Meredith4 overs17 wkts, econ 8.77 | – | +1.9 |
| 11 | Billy Stanlake3 overs10 wkts, econ 8.30 | – | −1.2 |