Senuran Muthusamy
11 wkts, econ 7.31 in the last 10. Rated +1.5 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.5 runs better than an average bowler. He has 11 wickets at an economy of 7.31 in his last 10 T20 matches, and 48 career T20 wickets at 7.07.
Warriors
ParBatting−7.5Bowling−6.8Overall−14.4
Lions
ParBatting−8.8Bowling−3.5Overall−12.2
Warriors bat first
First innings152
Lions chase in17.4 overs
63%Lions win
37%Warriors win
Lions bat first
First innings161
Warriors short by33 runs
63%Lions win
37%Warriors win
First innings
152Warriors bat first
161Lions bat first
159Par
157Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 20 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
42%
8 of 19 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 49% (44 of 89). CSA T20 Challenge, SA20, Mzansi Super League, IPL and T20Is.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
5%of games in dry weather at South African grounds were shortened (27 of 496).
Strengths and weaknesses
Quinton de KockBatting standout, Lions: 319 runs, SR 163 (last 10)
Bjorn FortuinBowling standout, Lions: 16 wkts, econ 6.58 (last 10)
LionsBatting weakness: −8.8 runs a game. Hamza SR 107, van Buuren SR 93 in the last 10.
Lions favoured at St George's Park, bowling edge the difference
Lions are favoured, with a win chance of 63%, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 2 runs. That edge comes entirely from bowling: Lions are rated 3.4 runs better than Warriors with the ball, while Warriors are 1.2 runs better with the bat. The two bowling attacks separate them, and Lions' batting is the weaker unit on both sides.
The par score here is 159, and the projected first-innings totals are 152 for Warriors and 161 for Lions. Teams batting first have won 11 of the last 19 here, and 68% of first-innings totals between 150 and 169 have been defended. The sharpest angle is that Lions' batting is rated 8.8 runs worse than average, so their bowlers may need to defend a total rather than set one.
The case for the Warriors
- Batting is rated 1.2 runs better than Lions, with Breetzke and Hermann both positive.
- Muthusamy is the most economical frontline bowler on either side, rated 1.5 runs better than average.
Bowling standout
The case for the Lions
- Bowling is rated 3.4 runs better than Warriors, with Fortuin and Coetzee both positive.
- de Kock and Reeza Hendricks are in strong recent form, with 319 and 302 runs in their last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standouts
Quinton de Kock
319 runs, SR 163, 22 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.8 runs better than an average batter. He has 319 runs at a strike rate of 163 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 22 sixes, and has scored 607 runs at this ground.
Reeza Hendricks
302 runs, SR 136, 12 sixes in the last 10. Rated +1.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.2 runs better than an average opener. He has 302 runs at a strike rate of 136 in his last 10 T20 matches, and 564 runs at this ground.
Bowling standout
Bjorn Fortuin
16 wkts, econ 6.58 in the last 10. Rated +2.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2 runs better than an average bowler. He has 16 wickets at an economy of 6.58 in his last 10 T20 matches, and 138 career T20 wickets at 6.91.
Batting weakness
Zubayr Hamza
247 runs, SR 107, 2 sixes in the last 10. Rated −4.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.8 runs worse than an average opener. He has 247 runs at a strike rate of 107 in his last 10 T20 matches, and his last match was in October 2024.
Bowling weakness
Nqaba Peter
5 wkts, econ 8.97 in the last 10. Rated −3.3 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.3 runs worse than an average bowler, on limited data. He has 5 wickets at an economy of 8.97 in his last 10 T20 matches.
St George's Park
Gqeberha, South Africa · 53 CSA T20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2007
- Men's T20s
- 95
Every first innings here
37 of 92reached par (159). Median 155.
Under par Par or more
Recent CSA T20 first innings average 160; games here have scored about 3% below their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 152, 2018–2022 157, 2023 onward 159.
100150159200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15021%8 of 38
150–16968%23 of 34
170–18975%9 of 12
190–209100%2 of 2
210+100%3 of 3
Weather: forecast
St George's Park, Sunday 4 October: no rain expected during the hours of play, the chance never above 5%.
The forecast is dry, with no rain expected during the hours of play and the chance never above 5%. At South African grounds, only 5% of games in similar dry weather have been shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat, wind and humidity have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring.
During play: 17.9 °C on average, humidity 85%, wind 22 km/h gusting to 49.
Play 18:00–21:35
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148%
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157%
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167%
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176%
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Warriors XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Hermann234 runs, SR 139 | +0.4 | – |
| 2 | JP King1 over68 runs, SR 119; 1 wkts, econ 11.67 (form 19 months old) | −2.2 | −0.7 |
| 3 | Matthew de Villiers151 runs, SR 116 | −2.1 | – |
| 4 | Matthew Breetzkeunsigned194 runs, SR 128 | +0.9 | – |
| 5 | Jean du Plessis131 runs, SR 127 (form 23 months old) | −0.8 | – |
| 6 | Patrick Kruger4 overs92 runs, SR 115; 11 wkts, econ 10.03 (form 20 months old) | −0.4 | −3.0 |
| 7 | Andile Mokgakane37 runs, SR 106 (form 23 months old) | −1.3 | – |
| 8 | Senuran Muthusamyunsigned, 4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.31 | – | +1.5 |
| 9 | Beuran Hendricks4 overs8 wkts, econ 8.39 (form 23 months old) | – | −1.5 |
| 10 | Tladi Bokako3 overs7 wkts, econ 7.97 (form 46 months old) | – | −2.2 |
| 11 | CJ King4 overs7 wkts, econ 6.42 (form 19 months old) | – | −1.0 |
Lions XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zubayr Hamza247 runs, SR 107 (form 22 months old) | −4.8 | – |
| 2 | Reeza Hendricks1 over302 runs, SR 136 | +1.2 | −0.4 |
| 3 | Wandile Makwetu113 runs, SR 119 (form 23 months old) | −2.1 | – |
| 4 | Quinton de Kockkeeper319 runs, SR 163 | +2.8 | – |
| 5 | Mitchell van Buuren148 runs, SR 93 (form 19 months old) | −1.9 | – |
| 6 | Connor Esterhuizen305 runs, SR 167 | −0.5 | – |
| 7 | Delano Potgieter3 overs43 runs, SR 96; 3 wkts, econ 8.68 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| 8 | Gerald Coetzee4 overs13 wkts, econ 7.98 | – | +0.3 |
| 9 | Bjorn Fortuin4 overs16 wkts, econ 6.58 | – | +2.0 |
| 10 | Lutho Sipamla4 overs10 wkts, econ 10.86 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Nqaba Peter4 overs5 wkts, econ 8.97 | – | −3.3 |