Oddsworth

South Africa v Australia, 1st ODI: South Africa 72%

South Africa 72%. Australia 28%.

South Africa v Australia ODI series 2026, 1st ODIThursday 24 September 2026, 10:00am SASTKingsmead, DurbanSouth Africa won by 67 runs: South Africa 297/8 (50), Australia 230 (41.2)

The sides

MeasureSouth AfricaAustralia
Rating17323rd of 1917214th of 19
XI caps467ODIs between the XI608ODIs between the XI
Top-seven average44.1ODI batting37.6ODI batting
Last 105–5ODIs since Sept 20255–5ODIs since Oct 2025

South Africa, last 10

WWWLWLLWLL

  • 13 Sept 2026 South Africa won by 9 wickets v Namibia
  • 11 Sept 2026 South Africa won by 157 runs v Namibia
  • 9 Sept 2026 South Africa won by 99 runs (DLS) v Namibia
  • 6 Dec 2025 India won by 9 wickets v India
  • 3 Dec 2025 South Africa won by 4 wickets v India

Australia, last 10

WWLLLWLLWW

  • 15 Sept 2026 Australia won by 59 runs v Zimbabwe
  • 14 Jun 2026 Australia won by 1 wicket v Bangladesh
  • 11 Jun 2026 Bangladesh won by 5 wickets (DLS) v Bangladesh
  • 9 Jun 2026 Bangladesh won by 86 runs (DLS) v Bangladesh
  • 4 Jun 2026 Pakistan won by 4 wickets v Pakistan

First innings

290South Africa bat first
262Australia bat first
284Par
203Average here since 2019, 1 innings
371Highest here, Australia 2016

Batting first here

53%

10 of 19 won batting first. Since 2019, 0% (0 of 1).

Rain risk

6%Highest chance in any hour
0.0mm forecast in play
24°Average temperature
19km/h, strongest wind

Head to head

33South Africa wins since 2006
23Australia wins since 2006
  • 24 Aug 2025 Australia won by 276 runs at Great Barrier Reef Arena
  • 22 Aug 2025 South Africa won by 84 runs at Great Barrier Reef Arena
  • 19 Aug 2025 South Africa won by 98 runs at Cazaly's Stadium
  • 16 Nov 2023 Australia won by 3 wickets at Eden Gardens

South Africa's grip on this fixture makes them favourites at Kingsmead

South Africa have won the last five ODI series between these sides. At home they won 5–0 in 2016, 3–0 in 2020 and 3–2 in 2023, when they lost the first two games in Bloemfontein and won the last three by 111, 164 and 122 runs. They have won 18 of the 26 ODIs against Australia in South Africa since 2006, and we make them 72% to win the opener.

That figure leans on the side Australia have been fielding. Travis Head missed six of their last ten ODIs, Josh Hazlewood seven and Pat Cummins all ten; Cummins has not played an ODI since November 2024. The predicted XI follows those games, so it has Oliver Peake and Matt Renshaw in the top seven rather than Head. With Head opening in place of Peake, and Hazlewood and Cummins in for Bartlett and Ellis, we would make Australia 32%. Head has 543 ODI runs against South Africa at a strike rate of 121.7, above his career 105.2, and Hazlewood has 29 wickets against them at 29.3.

Kingsmead has not staged an ODI since February 2020, and par is 284. The highest first innings here is Australia's 371 for 6 in 2016, and South Africa chased it down.

Kingsmead

Durban

ODIs here
28, since 2003
South Africa here
Won 12, lost 6
Lowest completed
174, Kenya 2003
Median first innings
263 all-time

Last 5 here

  • Feb 2020 South Africa 71/2 (11.2). No result
  • Mar 2019 South Africa 331/5 (50) v Sri Lanka 121/5 (24). South Africa won by 71 runs (DLS)
  • Jan 2019 Pakistan 203 (45.5) v South Africa 207/5 (42). South Africa won by 5 wickets
  • Feb 2018 South Africa 269/8 (50) v India 270/4 (45.3). India won by 6 wickets
  • Feb 2017 South Africa 307/6 (50) v Sri Lanka 186 (37.5). South Africa won by 121 runs

The case for South Africa

  • Quinton de Kock has 499 runs in his last ten ODIs at an average of 55.4, above his career 46.5, and 1,021 runs against Australia.
  • Keshav Maharaj has 18 wickets against Australia at an average of 25.8, against his career 31.4, and concedes 4.18 an over to them.

The case for Australia

  • Mitchell Marsh made 100 and Cameron Green 118 not out off 55 balls in Mackay in August 2025, when Australia made 431 for 2 and beat South Africa by 276 runs. Marsh has 452 runs in his last ten ODIs at an average of 50.2, against his career 37.8.
  • Mitchell Starc has 239 ODI wickets at an average of 23.7, the best of any bowler in either squad with 50 wickets. Xavier Bartlett has 20 in his nine ODIs at 17.0 each.

Weather, hour by hour

Play0924°1024°1125°1225°1325°1424°1524°1624°1723°1822°

10% chance of rain

South Africa predicted XI

OrderPlayerODIsAvgSRWktsEcon
1Quinton de Kock †Last 10: 499 runs15946.597––
2Ryan RickeltonLast 10: 163 runs1623.483––
3Temba Bavuma (c)Last 10: 346 runs5143.189––
4Tony de ZorziLast 10: 374 runs2045.799––
5Matthew BreetzkeLast 10: 332 runs1459.297––
6Aiden MarkramLast 10: 368 runs8036.398185.88
7Marco JansenLast 10: 145 runs, 14 wkts3126.3113486.36
8Corbin BoschLast 10: 237 runs, 11 wkts1451.5114136.71
9Gerald CoetzeeLast 10: 54 runs, 20 wkts138.163276.69
10Keshav MaharajLast 10: 86 runs, 17 wkts5414.180704.78
11Bjorn FortuinLast 10: 59 runs, 13 wkts157.664195.15

Australia predicted XI

OrderPlayerODIsAvgSRWktsEcon
1Travis HeadLast 10: 307 runs, 4 wkts7842.8105285.76
2Mitchell Marsh (c)Last 10: 452 runs, 1 wkts9837.895575.50
3Cooper ConnollyLast 10: 322 runs, 7 wkts1341.59075.33
4Josh InglisLast 10: 299 runs3830.4100––
5Alex Carey †Last 10: 216 runs9033.589––
6Cameron GreenLast 10: 362 runs, 3 wkts3741.183215.77
7Matt RenshawLast 10: 326 runs, 7 wkts1036.29775.05
8Xavier BartlettLast 9: 69 runs, 20 wkts911.585204.71
9Nathan EllisLast 10: 52 runs, 18 wkts2211.681325.16
10Adam ZampaLast 10: 28 runs, 11 wkts11910.0651935.50
11Josh HazlewoodLast 10: 10 runs, 7 wkts9415.0811384.75

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