Heat 48%. Sixers 52%.
KFC BBL|16, match 2Tuesday 15 December 2026, 6:15pm AEST (7:15pm AEDT)The Gabba, Brisbane
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 14 innings since Sept 2023.
9 of 13 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 51% (36 of 70). BBL and T20Is.
of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
This is too close to call. Sydney Sixers are the stronger side on paper, about 6 runs better than Brisbane Heat across the XI, with edges in both batting (2.4 runs) and bowling (3.3 runs). But the win chances sit at 52% to 48%, so there is no favourite worth naming. The Sixers' paper advantage comes from a batting group led by Steve Smith and Tim Seifert, and a bowling attack with Ben Dwarshuis and Sean Abbott both rated positively.
Both sides project to score around 178 batting first, which is also the par score here. Chasing has been the sharper angle at The Gabba: chasers have won 9 of the last 13 games here, and 36 of 70 all time. The recent first-innings average here is 180 from 14 innings since September 2023, so this is a ground where the side batting second has had the better of it lately.
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.3 runs better than an average batter. He has 270 runs at a strike rate of 126.2 in his last 10 T20 matches, and adds 0.1 runs with the ball over his expected two overs.
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches, and is the weakest link in the Heat's bowling unit.
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.5 runs better than an average batter. He has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 17 sixes, and is the top batter for the Sixers.
17 wkts, econ 8.85 in the last 10. Rated +1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 17 wickets at an economy of 8.85 in his last 10 T20 matches, and is the top bowler for the Sixers.
7 wkts, econ 7.84 in the last 10. Rated −2.1 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.1 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, on limited data. He has 7 wickets at an economy of 7.84 in his last 10 T20 matches, but the rating is cautious.
Brisbane, Australia · 67 BBL matches here
The Gabba opened in 1895 and held its first Test in November 1931.
reached par (178). Median 172.
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 2% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 174, 2018–2022 163, 2023 onward 177.
23 December 2016 at The Gabba: 23 °C, humidity 68%, wind 10 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 44 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 15 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Gabba during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. Only 4% of games in similar weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The humidity sits between 62% and 73% during the evening, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at Australian BBL grounds, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring there.
During play: 23.3 °C on average, humidity 68%, wind 10 km/h gusting to 34. Humidity climbs from 62% to 73%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
1 December 2021 at The Gabba: 21 °C, humidity 98%, wind 7 km/h and 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play. 44 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 15 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Gabba during these hours.
These conditions are wet, with 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play and the heaviest spell from 18:00 to 19:00, overlapping the first innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring. Rain could interrupt the first innings in particular.
During play: 21.4 °C on average, humidity 98%, wind 7 km/h gusting to 19.
Heaviest rain 18:00–19:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
12 December 2019 at The Gabba: 25 °C, humidity 79%, wind 16 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 44 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 15 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Gabba during these hours.
These conditions are hot and dry, with no rain expected during play. Similar weather at Australian BBL grounds has seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The humidity sits between 73% and 83% during the match, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at Australian BBL grounds, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring there.
During play: 25.4 °C on average, humidity 79%, wind 16 km/h gusting to 40. Humidity climbs from 73% to 83%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Wildermuth3 overs222 runs, SR 159; 10 wkts, econ 9.92 | +0.5 | −2.0 |
| 2 | Nathan McSweeney210 runs, SR 146 | +0.1 | – |
| 3 | Tim Robinson178 runs, SR 131 | +0.7 | – |
| 4 | Matthew Renshaw2 overs270 runs, SR 126; 3 wkts, econ 7.00 | +3.3 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Max Bryant222 runs, SR 152 | +2.2 | – |
| 6 | Tom Curran3 overs12 wkts, econ 7.71 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Hugh Weibgen151 runs, SR 107 | −0.3 | – |
| 8 | Jimmy Peirsonkeeper, unsigned145 runs, SR 131 | +0.4 | – |
| 9 | Xavier Bartlett4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.82 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Michael Neser4 overs13 wkts, econ 9.85 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Matt Kuhnemann4 overs9 wkts, econ 7.29 | – | +0.8 |
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Seifert301 runs, SR 135 | +3.1 | – |
| 2 | Steve Smith285 runs, SR 161 | +4.5 | – |
| 3 | Josh Philippekeeper267 runs, SR 153 | +1.4 | – |
| 4 | Ollie Davies1 over174 runs, SR 112; 0 wkts, econ 12.00 | +0.4 | −0.5 |
| 5 | Jordan Silk193 runs, SR 118 | +0.7 | – |
| 6 | Jack Edwards4 overs41 runs, SR 95; 10 wkts, econ 9.49 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Lachlan Shaw188 runs, SR 146 | +0.6 | – |
| 8 | Joel Davies3 overs12 wkts, econ 6.77 | – | +1.2 |
| 9 | Ben Dwarshuis4 overs17 wkts, econ 8.85 | – | +1.8 |
| 10 | Fergus O'Neill4 overs7 wkts, econ 7.84 | – | −2.1 |
| 11 | Sean Abbott4 overs6 wkts, econ 8.95 | – | +1.1 |
