Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.3 runs better than an average batter. He has 270 runs at a strike rate of 126.2 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 9 sixes.
Heat
ParBatting+9.5Bowling−1.1Overall+8.4
Sixers
ParBatting+11.8Bowling+2.2Overall+14.0
Heat bat first
First innings178
Sixers chase in18.2 overs
54%Sixers win
46%Heat win
Sixers bat first
First innings177
Heat chase in18 overs
51%Heat win
49%Sixers win
First innings
178Heat bat first
177Sixers bat first
178Par
180Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 14 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
69%
9 of 13 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 51% (36 of 70). BBL and T20Is.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Steve SmithBatting standout, Sixers: 285 runs, SR 161 (last 10)
Ben DwarshuisBowling standout, Sixers: 17 wkts, econ 8.85 (last 10)
HeatBowling weakness: −1.1 runs a game. Neser econ 9.85 in the last 10.
Too close to call; Sixers stronger on paper by about 6 runs
This is too close to call, with Sydney Sixers at 52% and Brisbane Heat at 48%. The Sixers are the stronger side on paper by about 6 runs, built on a batting edge of roughly 2 runs and a bowling edge of roughly 3. Their team strength is 14 runs better than average against Brisbane's 8.4, but the win chances are tight enough that no favourite can be named.
Both sides project to score around 178, which is also the par score at the Gabba. The recent first-innings average in the league is 170 from 60 innings, while the recent average here is 180 from 14 innings. Chasers have won 9 of the last 13 games here, and the sharpest angle is that the Sixers' paper edge is not enough to separate the teams.
The case for the Heat
- Batting strength of 9.5 runs better than average, led by Renshaw at 3.3 and Bryant at 2.2.
- Recent average here of 180 from 14 innings, and chasers have won 9 of the last 13 games at this ground.
Batting standout
Bowling weakness
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Sixers
- Stronger on paper by about 6 runs, with a batting edge of roughly 2 runs and a bowling edge of roughly 3.
- Steve Smith is rated 4.5 runs better than an average batter and has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Ben Dwarshuis is rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler and has 17 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Steve Smith
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.5 runs better than an average batter. He has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 17 sixes.
Bowling standout
Ben Dwarshuis
17 wkts, econ 8.85 in the last 10. Rated +1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 17 wickets at an economy of 8.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Fergus O'Neill
7 wkts, econ 7.84 in the last 10. Rated −2.1 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.1 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs on limited data. He has 7 wickets at an economy of 7.84 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The Gabba
Brisbane, Australia · 67 BBL matches here
The Gabba opened in 1895 and held its first Test in November 1931.
- Opened
- 1895
- Capacity
- 37,000 seats
- Ends
- Stanley Street End · Vulture Street End
- Home to
- Brisbane Heat (BBL)
Every first innings here
24 of 73reached par (178). Median 172.
Under par Par or more
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 2% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 174, 2018–2022 163, 2023 onward 177.
150178200250
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 1506%1 of 16
150–16960%9 of 15
170–18950%11 of 22
190–20979%11 of 14
210+67%2 of 3
Weather: dry, like 23 Dec 2016
23 December 2016 at The Gabba: 23 °C, humidity 68%, wind 10 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 44 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 15 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Gabba during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. Only 4% of games in similar weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The humidity sits between 62% and 73% during the evening, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at Australian BBL grounds, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring there.
During play: 23.3 °C on average, humidity 68%, wind 10 km/h gusting to 34. Humidity climbs from 62% to 73%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 18:15–21:50
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 1 Dec 2021
1 December 2021 at The Gabba: 21 °C, humidity 98%, wind 7 km/h and 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play. 44 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 15 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Gabba during these hours.
These conditions are wet, with 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play and the heaviest spell from 18:00 to 19:00, overlapping the first innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring. Rain could interrupt the first innings in particular.
During play: 21.4 °C on average, humidity 98%, wind 7 km/h gusting to 19.
Heaviest rain 18:00–19:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 18:15–21:50
146.6mm
157.5mm
168.4mm
174.4mm
181.9mm
190.4mm
200.2mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.3mm
Weather: hot, like 12 Dec 2019
12 December 2019 at The Gabba: 25 °C, humidity 79%, wind 16 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 44 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 15 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Gabba during these hours.
These conditions are hot and dry, with no rain expected during play. Similar weather at Australian BBL grounds has seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The humidity sits between 73% and 83% during the match, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at Australian BBL grounds, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring there.
During play: 25.4 °C on average, humidity 79%, wind 16 km/h gusting to 40. Humidity climbs from 73% to 83%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 18:15–21:50
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Brisbane Heat XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Wildermuth3 overs222 runs, SR 159; 10 wkts, econ 9.92 | +0.5 | −2.0 |
| 2 | Nathan McSweeney210 runs, SR 146 | +0.1 | – |
| 3 | Tim Robinson178 runs, SR 131 | +0.7 | – |
| 4 | Matthew Renshaw2 overs270 runs, SR 126; 3 wkts, econ 7.00 | +3.3 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Max Bryant222 runs, SR 152 | +2.2 | – |
| 6 | Tom Curran3 overs12 wkts, econ 7.71 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Hugh Weibgen151 runs, SR 107 | −0.3 | – |
| 8 | Jimmy Peirsonkeeper, unsigned145 runs, SR 131 | +0.4 | – |
| 9 | Xavier Bartlett4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.82 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Michael Neser4 overs13 wkts, econ 9.85 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Matt Kuhnemann4 overs9 wkts, econ 7.29 | – | +0.8 |
Sydney Sixers XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Seifert301 runs, SR 135 | +3.1 | – |
| 2 | Steve Smith285 runs, SR 161 | +4.5 | – |
| 3 | Josh Philippekeeper267 runs, SR 153 | +1.4 | – |
| 4 | Ollie Davies1 over174 runs, SR 112; 0 wkts, econ 12.00 | +0.4 | −0.5 |
| 5 | Jordan Silk193 runs, SR 118 | +0.7 | – |
| 6 | Jack Edwards4 overs41 runs, SR 95; 10 wkts, econ 9.49 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Lachlan Shaw188 runs, SR 146 | +0.6 | – |
| 8 | Joel Davies3 overs12 wkts, econ 6.77 | – | +1.2 |
| 9 | Ben Dwarshuis4 overs17 wkts, econ 8.85 | – | +1.8 |
| 10 | Fergus O'Neill4 overs7 wkts, econ 7.84 | – | −2.1 |
| 11 | Sean Abbott4 overs6 wkts, econ 8.95 | – | +1.1 |