Thunder 44%. Strikers 56%.
KFC BBL|16, match 3Wednesday 16 December 2026, 7:15pm AEDTManuka Oval, Canberra
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 6 innings since Sept 2023.
3 of 6 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 63% (17 of 27). BBL and T20Is.
of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Adelaide Strikers are favoured, with a 56% win chance and a paper strength about 6 runs clear of Sydney Thunder. The edge is mostly from bowling: Adelaide are rated 4.3 runs better with the ball and 1.9 runs better with the bat. Thunder's batting is solid at 5.2 runs above average, but their bowling is 1.2 runs worse than average, leaving them with a total of 4 runs against Adelaide's 10.2.
Both sides project to score in the low 170s, with Adelaide slightly ahead at 172 to Thunder's 170. The par score here is 174, and the recent league first-innings average is 170 from 60 innings. At this ground, the recent average is 163 from six innings since September 2023, and the all-time median is also 163 from 31 innings. Chasing has been the sharper angle: 17 of 27 all-time games here have been won by the side batting second, and the last six have split 3-3.
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.0 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4 runs better than an average batter. He has 515 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 15 sixes, and is Thunder's leading batting threat.
6 wkts, econ 7.72 in the last 10. Rated +2.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.2 runs better than an average bowler and 1.7 runs better with the bat. In his last 10 T20 matches he has 6 wickets at an economy of 7.72 and 142 runs at a strike rate of 149.5.
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 15 wickets but an economy of 10.63 in his last 10 T20 matches, and his selection is among the least certain.
2 wkts, econ 12.79 in the last 4. Rated −3.6 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.6 runs worse than an average bowler over three overs, on limited data. He has 2 wickets at an economy of 12.79 in his last four T20 matches, a small sample.
452 runs, SR 145, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.2 runs better than an average opener. He has 452 runs at a strike rate of 144.9 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 19 sixes, and also offers 14 wickets at an economy of 7.6 in that window.
24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches, a strong recent return.
Canberra, Australia · 29 BBL matches here
Manuka Oval was enclosed as a sports ground in 1929 and has staged the Prime Minister's XI match since 1951.
reached par (174). Median 163.
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored in line with their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 147, 2018–2022 166, 2023 onward 151.
3 December 2020 at Manuka Oval: 19 °C, humidity 52%, wind 12 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 38 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 16 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Manuka Oval during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during play. Similar dry evenings at Australian BBL grounds have seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The match starts at 7:15pm AEDT, and any rain would overlap the first innings, but none is forecast. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 19.3 °C on average, humidity 52%, wind 12 km/h gusting to 37. Humidity climbs from 39% to 64%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
29 December 2016 at Manuka Oval: 22 °C, humidity 88%, wind 7 km/h and 4.4 mm of rain during the hours of play. 38 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 16 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Manuka Oval during these hours.
This weather is wet, like 29 December 2016, with 4.4 mm of rain during the hours of play. The wettest spell runs from 21:00 to 22:00 and overlaps the second innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring.
During play: 22.0 °C on average, humidity 88%, wind 7 km/h gusting to 33. Humidity climbs from 80% to 93%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 21:00–22:00, mostly over the second innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
18 December 2017 at Manuka Oval: 25 °C, humidity 65%, wind 7 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 38 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 16 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Manuka Oval during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during play. At Australian BBL grounds, 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds. The start is Wednesday 16 December 2026, 7:15pm AEDT.
During play: 25.2 °C on average, humidity 65%, wind 7 km/h gusting to 19. Humidity climbs from 51% to 74%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Gilkes232 runs, SR 156 | −0.3 | – |
| 2 | Sam Konstas160 runs, SR 106 | −2.4 | – |
| 3 | David Warner515 runs, SR 149 | +4.0 | – |
| 4 | Cameron Bancroft180 runs, SR 111 | −1.3 | – |
| 5 | Sam Billingskeeper273 runs, SR 155 | +1.9 | – |
| 6 | Daniel Sams4 overs50 runs, SR 106; 15 wkts, econ 7.38 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Chris Green3 overs142 runs, SR 150; 6 wkts, econ 7.72 | +1.7 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Nathan McAndrewunsigned, 4 overs15 wkts, econ 10.63 | – | −1.8 |
| 9 | Tanveer Sangha4 overs5 wkts, econ 8.61 | – | +2.0 |
| 10 | Ryan Hadley3 overs2 wkts, econ 12.79 | – | −3.6 |
| 11 | Aidan O'Connor2 overs1 wkts, econ 8.50 | – | −1.1 |
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Short2 overs452 runs, SR 145; 14 wkts, econ 7.60 | +4.2 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Alex Careykeeper219 runs, SR 153 | +0.9 | – |
| 3 | Liam Scott232 runs, SR 123 | +1.6 | – |
| 4 | Jason Sangha187 runs, SR 121 | −0.9 | – |
| 5 | Mark Chapman289 runs, SR 149 | +3.0 | – |
| 6 | Ben Stokes2 overs156 runs, SR 108; 5 wkts, econ 7.96 (form 41 months old) | −0.1 | −0.9 |
| 7 | Jerrssis Wadia52 runs, SR 137 | −0.8 | – |
| 8 | Henry Thornton4 overs12 wkts, econ 8.68 | – | −0.3 |
| 9 | Hassan Aliunsigned, 4 overs24 wkts, econ 8.03 | – | +3.2 |
| 10 | Lloyd Pope4 overs14 wkts, econ 7.89 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Cameron Boyceunsigned, 4 overs8 wkts, econ 8.85 | – | +1.8 |
