Tim David
265 runs, SR 160, 21 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5.8 runs better than an average middle-order batter. He has 265 runs at a strike rate of 159.6 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 21 sixes.
Hurricanes
ParBatting+16.6Bowling+9.6Overall+26.2
Heat
ParBatting+9.5Bowling−1.1Overall+8.4
Hurricanes bat first
First innings179
Heat short by37 runs
54%Hurricanes win
46%Heat win
Heat bat first
First innings167
Hurricanes chase in17.2 overs
59%Hurricanes win
41%Heat win
First innings
179Hurricanes bat first
167Heat bat first
174Par
172Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 18 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
67%
12 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 48% (39 of 81). BBL and T20Is.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Tim DavidBatting standout, Hurricanes: 265 runs, SR 160 (last 10)
Nathan EllisBowling standout, Hurricanes: 13 wkts, econ 7.24 (last 10)
HeatBowling weakness: −1.1 runs a game. Neser econ 9.85 in the last 10.
Hobart Hurricanes favoured by about 18 runs on paper
Hobart Hurricanes are favoured, with a win chance of 56% to Brisbane Heat's 44%. They are also the stronger side on paper, worth about 18 runs more than Heat across the XI. That edge comes from both batting and bowling: Hurricanes are 7.2 runs better with the bat and 10.7 runs better with the ball. Their team strength is 26.2 runs above average, against Heat's 8.4.
The runs picture points to a par score of 174, with Hurricanes projected to make 179 batting first and Heat 167. Chasing has been the way here: chasers have won 12 of the last 18 games at Bellerive Oval, and 64% of games in the 170–189 bracket were defended. The sharpest angle is Heat's bowling, rated 1.1 runs worse than average, against a Hurricanes batting line-up with three proven positive contributors.
The case for the Hurricanes
- Rated 26.2 runs better than an average team, with a batting edge of 7.2 runs and a bowling edge of 10.7 runs.
- Projected to score 179 batting first, above the par score of 174.
- Three proven batters rated positively: Tim David (5.8), Mitch Owen (5.7) and Beau Webster (2.3).
Batting standouts
Mitch Owen
206 runs, SR 178, 18 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5.7 runs better than an average opener. He has 206 runs at a strike rate of 177.6 and 12 wickets at an economy of 9.77 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standouts
Nathan Ellis
13 wkts, econ 7.24 in the last 10. Rated +4.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 7.24 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Adam Zampa
11 wkts, econ 7.38 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 11 wickets at an economy of 7.38 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Heat
- Chasing record at Bellerive Oval: chasers have won 12 of the last 18 games here.
- Matthew Renshaw is rated 3.3 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
- Xavier Bartlett is rated 0.7 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
Batting standout
Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.3 runs better than an average batter in his slot. He has 270 runs at a strike rate of 126.2 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
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Bellerive Oval
Hobart, Australia · 71 BBL matches here
The ground on the Derwent dates from 1914 and was rebuilt in the mid-1980s to take first-class and international cricket, hosting its first Test in December 1989.
- Opened
- 1914
- Capacity
- 19,500 seats
- Ends
- Church Street End · River End
- Home to
- Hobart Hurricanes (BBL)
Every first innings here
24 of 81reached par (174). Median 167.
Under par Par or more
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored in line with their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 166, 2018–2022 167, 2023 onward 170.
150174200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%3 of 16
150–16948%13 of 27
170–18964%18 of 28
190–20967%4 of 6
210+100%4 of 4
Weather: dry, like 2 Dec 2023
2 December 2023 at Bellerive Oval: 15 °C, humidity 81%, wind 9 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 40 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 17 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Bellerive Oval during these hours.
These conditions are dry, like 2 December 2023 at Bellerive Oval, with 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. Rain risk is low. Across 636 games at Australian BBL grounds in similar weather, 4% were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 15.2 °C on average, humidity 81%, wind 9 km/h gusting to 34.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 30 Dec 2025
30 December 2025 at Bellerive Oval: 14 °C, humidity 84%, wind 7 km/h and 2.4 mm of rain during the hours of play. 40 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 17 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Bellerive Oval during these hours.
This weather is wet, like 30 December 2025 at Bellerive Oval, with 2.4 mm of rain during the hours of play. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. The wettest spell is 19:00 to 20:00, overlapping the first innings. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring.
During play: 13.5 °C on average, humidity 84%, wind 7 km/h gusting to 28.
Heaviest rain 19:00–20:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.3mm
171.1mm
181.0mm
191.4mm
200.2mm
210.2mm
220.6mm
230.0mm
Weather: warm, like 26 Nov 2017
26 November 2017 at Bellerive Oval: 19 °C, humidity 86%, wind 6 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 40 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 17 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Bellerive Oval during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during play. Similar weather at Australian BBL grounds has seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor, and it will not overlap either innings. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 19.3 °C on average, humidity 86%, wind 6 km/h gusting to 30. Humidity climbs from 80% to 92%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 19:15–22:50
151.1mm
162.0mm
173.0mm
180.1mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Hobart Hurricanes XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mitch Owen206 runs, SR 178 | +5.7 | – |
| 2 | Beau Webster531 runs, SR 152 | +2.3 | – |
| 3 | Ben McDermottkeeper226 runs, SR 139 | +2.1 | – |
| 4 | Nikhil Chaudhary138 runs, SR 115 | +2.3 | – |
| 5 | Tim David265 runs, SR 160 | +5.8 | – |
| 6 | Chris Jordanunsigned, 1 over82 runs, SR 121; 9 wkts, econ 7.90 | +0.7 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Nathan Ellis4 overs13 wkts, econ 7.24 | +0.2 | +4.4 |
| 8 | Adam Zampa4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.38 | – | +3.8 |
| 9 | Rishad Hossainunsigned, 4 overs10 wkts, econ 9.64 | – | +0.2 |
| 10 | Riley Meredith4 overs17 wkts, econ 8.77 | – | +1.9 |
| 11 | Billy Stanlake3 overs10 wkts, econ 8.30 | – | −1.2 |
Brisbane Heat XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Wildermuth3 overs222 runs, SR 159; 10 wkts, econ 9.92 | +0.5 | −2.0 |
| 2 | Nathan McSweeney210 runs, SR 146 | +0.1 | – |
| 3 | Tim Robinson178 runs, SR 131 | +0.7 | – |
| 4 | Matthew Renshaw2 overs270 runs, SR 126; 3 wkts, econ 7.00 | +3.3 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Max Bryant222 runs, SR 152 | +2.2 | – |
| 6 | Tom Curran3 overs12 wkts, econ 7.71 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Hugh Weibgen151 runs, SR 107 | −0.3 | – |
| 8 | Jimmy Peirsonkeeper, unsigned145 runs, SR 131 | +0.4 | – |
| 9 | Xavier Bartlett4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.82 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Michael Neser4 overs13 wkts, econ 9.85 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Matt Kuhnemann4 overs9 wkts, econ 7.29 | – | +0.8 |