Bryce Parsons
236 runs, SR 124, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.6 runs worse than an average batter. His last 10 T20 matches brought 236 runs at a strike rate of 124.2.
Dolphins
ParBatting−10.6Bowling−6.4Overall−16.9
Lions
ParBatting−8.8Bowling−3.5Overall−12.2
Dolphins bat first
First innings155
Lions chase in17.5 overs
65%Lions win
35%Dolphins win
Lions bat first
First innings168
Dolphins short by34 runs
65%Lions win
35%Dolphins win
First innings
155Dolphins bat first
168Lions bat first
166Par
172Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 20 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
28%
5 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 43% (39 of 91). CSA T20 Challenge, SA20, IPL, T20Is and Mzansi Super League.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
38%of games in wet weather at South African grounds were shortened or washed out (42 of 112).
Strengths and weaknesses
Quinton de KockBatting standout, Lions: 319 runs, SR 163 (last 10)
Bjorn FortuinBowling standout, Lions: 16 wkts, econ 6.58 (last 10)
DolphinsBatting weakness: −10.6 runs a game. Parsons SR 124, Simelane SR 88 in the last 10.
Lions favoured by about 5 runs; bowling gives them the edge
Lions are favoured, with a win chance of 65% against Dolphins' 35%. They are also the stronger side on paper, about 5 runs better overall. That edge comes mostly from bowling, where they are 2.9 runs ahead, with a smaller 1.8-run batting advantage. Both sides rate below average overall, but Lions are less so.
Lions are projected to score 168 batting first, Dolphins 155, against a par score of 166. At this ground, teams batting first have won 13 of the last 18, and 170–189 has been defended 76% of the time. The sharpest angle is the toss: batting first has been a clear advantage here recently.
The case for the Dolphins
- Prenelan Subrayen is rated 0.9 runs better than an average bowler and has 12 wickets at 8.08 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Marques Ackerman is rated 0.7 runs better than an average batter and made 234 runs at a strike rate of 141.8 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting weakness
Bowling weakness
Andile Simelane
6 wkts, econ 10.61 in the last 10. Rated −2.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. His last 10 T20 matches brought 6 wickets at an economy of 10.61.
The case for the Lions
- Rated about 5 runs stronger overall, with a bowling edge of 2.9 runs and a batting edge of 1.8 runs.
- Quinton de Kock and Reeza Hendricks both in strong recent form, and Bjorn Fortuin leads the attack with 16 wickets at 6.58 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standouts
Quinton de Kock
319 runs, SR 163, 22 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.8 runs a game with the bat.
319 runs at a strike rate of 162.8 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 22 sixes. Rated 2.8 runs better than an average batter.
Reeza Hendricks
302 runs, SR 136, 12 sixes in the last 10. Rated +1.2 runs a game with the bat.
302 runs at a strike rate of 136 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 1.2 runs better than an average opener.
Bowling standout
Bjorn Fortuin
16 wkts, econ 6.58 in the last 10. Rated +2.0 runs a game with the ball.
16 wickets at an economy of 6.58 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
Bowling weakness
Nqaba Peter
5 wkts, econ 8.97 in the last 10. Rated −3.3 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.3 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, on limited data. His last 10 T20 matches brought 5 wickets at an economy of 8.97.
Kingsmead
Durban, South Africa · 49 CSA T20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2007
- Men's T20s
- 110
Every first innings here
35 of 100reached par (166). Median 159.
Under par Par or more
Recent CSA T20 first innings average 160; games here have scored about 2% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 158, 2018–2022 151, 2023 onward 170.
100150166200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15032%10 of 31
150–16954%15 of 28
170–18976%13 of 17
190–20990%9 of 10
210+100%5 of 5
Weather: forecast
Kingsmead, Sunday 27 September: no rain expected during the hours of play, though the chance reaches 37% at 16:00.
The forecast for Kingsmead on Sunday 27 September is for no rain during the hours of play, though the chance reaches 37% at 16:00. At South African grounds, 38% of games in similar wet weather were shortened or washed out. Any rain would most likely overlap the second innings. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring.
During play: 22.5 °C on average, humidity 66%, wind 27 km/h gusting to 59.
Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 13:00–16:35
0.1mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0.0mm
0912%
0.1mm
1011%
0.0mm
1112%
0.0mm
1213%
0.0mm
1315%
0.0mm
1420%
0.0mm
1528%
0.0mm
1637%
0.0mm
1747%
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1858%
0.0mm
Dolphins XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Roelofsenkeeper313 runs, SR 133 (form 23 months old) | −1.1 | – |
| 2 | Josh Richards95 runs, SR 95 (form 23 months old) | −3.8 | – |
| 3 | Bryce Parsons1 over236 runs, SR 124; 7 wkts, econ 9.62 | −1.6 | −0.3 |
| 4 | Marques Ackerman234 runs, SR 142 | +0.7 | – |
| 5 | Jason Smith3 overs102 runs, SR 126 | −0.2 | −0.9 |
| 6 | Khaya Zondo213 runs, SR 116 (form 23 months old) | −0.9 | – |
| 7 | Hanu Viljoen2 matches, 15 runs off 10 balls (form 23 months old) | −0.8 | – |
| 8 | Andile Simelane4 overs6 wkts, econ 10.61 | – | −2.8 |
| 9 | Prenelan Subrayen4 overs12 wkts, econ 8.08 | – | +0.9 |
| 10 | Keith Dudgeon4 overs9 wkts, econ 8.30 | – | −1.5 |
| 11 | Okuhle Cele4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.59 (form 23 months old) | – | −1.9 |
Lions XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zubayr Hamza247 runs, SR 107 (form 22 months old) | −4.8 | – |
| 2 | Reeza Hendricks1 over302 runs, SR 136 | +1.2 | −0.4 |
| 3 | Wandile Makwetu113 runs, SR 119 (form 23 months old) | −2.1 | – |
| 4 | Quinton de Kockkeeper319 runs, SR 163 | +2.8 | – |
| 5 | Mitchell van Buuren148 runs, SR 93 (form 19 months old) | −1.9 | – |
| 6 | Connor Esterhuizen305 runs, SR 167 | −0.5 | – |
| 7 | Delano Potgieter3 overs43 runs, SR 96; 3 wkts, econ 8.68 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| 8 | Gerald Coetzee4 overs13 wkts, econ 7.98 | – | +0.3 |
| 9 | Bjorn Fortuin4 overs16 wkts, econ 6.58 | – | +2.0 |
| 10 | Lutho Sipamla4 overs10 wkts, econ 10.86 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Nqaba Peter4 overs5 wkts, econ 8.97 | – | −3.3 |