Faf du Plessis
363 runs, SR 144, 14 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.3 runs better than an average opener. He has 363 runs at a strike rate of 143.5 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 14 sixes.
Super Kings
ParBatting+10.3Bowling+4.2Overall+14.5
Sunrisers
ParBatting+9.4Bowling+6.5Overall+16.0
Super Kings bat first
First innings176
Sunrisers chase in18.2 overs
60%Sunrisers win
40%Super Kings win
Sunrisers bat first
First innings178
Super Kings short by31 runs
61%Sunrisers win
39%Super Kings win
First innings
176Super Kings bat first
178Sunrisers bat first
175Par
173Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 27 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
50%
11 of 22 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 49% (47 of 95). CSA T20 Challenge, SA20, T20Is, Mzansi Super League and IPL.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at SA20 grounds were shortened or washed out (34 of 91).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Faf du PlessisBatting standout, Super Kings: 363 runs, SR 144 (last 10)
Anrich NortjeBowling standout, Sunrisers: 17 wkts, econ 7.62 (last 10)
Super KingsBowling weakness: +4.2 runs a game. Mulder econ 10.03 in the last 10.
Sunrisers Eastern Cape favoured by about 2 runs on bowling
Sunrisers Eastern Cape are favoured, with a 60% win chance, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 2 runs. The edge is all in the bowling: Sunrisers are 2.4 runs better than average with the ball, while Joburg Super Kings are 0.9 runs better with the bat. That leaves Sunrisers about 2 runs clear overall.
The runs picture is tight. Joburg are projected to make 176 batting first, Sunrisers 178, against a par score of 175. At this ground, defending teams have won 52% of games when making 150–169 and 53% when making 170–189, so the first-innings total will not decide it. Chasing has been a coin flip here recently: 11 wins each in the last 22 games. The sharpest angle is Sunrisers' bowling against Joburg's weaker attack.
The case for the Super Kings
- Batting edge of 0.9 runs over Sunrisers Eastern Cape, with Faf du Plessis and James Vince both rated above average.
- Projected to score 176 batting first, one run more than Sunrisers Eastern Cape's projection.
Batting standouts
James Vince
448 runs, SR 153, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.3 runs better than an average batter. He has 448 runs at a strike rate of 152.9 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 20 sixes.
Bowling weakness
Wiaan Mulder
6 wkts, econ 10.03 in the last 10. Rated −2.6 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.6 runs worse than an average bowler. He has 6 wickets at an economy of 10.03 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Sunrisers
- Bowling edge of 2.4 runs over Joburg Super Kings, led by Anrich Nortje and Richard Gleeson.
- Stronger on paper by about 2 runs overall, with a 60% win chance.
Batting standout
Quinton de Kock
319 runs, SR 163, 22 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.7 runs better than an average opener. He has 319 runs at a strike rate of 162.8 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 22 sixes.
Bowling standouts
Anrich Nortje
17 wkts, econ 7.62 in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.2 runs better than an average bowler. He has 17 wickets at an economy of 7.62 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Marco Jansen
9 wkts, econ 11.25 in the last 10. Rated +1.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.4 runs better than an average bowler and 1 run better with the bat. He has 9 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
The Wanderers Stadium
Johannesburg, South Africa · 25 SA20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2005
- Men's T20s
- 109
Every first innings here
40 of 104reached par (175). Median 168.
Under par Par or more
Recent SA20 first innings average 165; games here have scored about 4% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 163, 2018–2022 185, 2023 onward 168.
100150175200250
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15017%5 of 30
150–16952%12 of 23
170–18953%8 of 15
190–20980%12 of 15
210+92%11 of 12
Weather: dry, like 3 Jan 2022
3 January 2022 at The Wanderers Stadium: 22 °C, humidity 52%, wind 9 km/h and 0.1 mm of rain during the hours of play. 84 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 23 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Wanderers Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with only 0.1 mm of rain expected during play. Similar weather at SA20 grounds has shortened or washed out 4% of games, so rain is unlikely to interfere. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds. Expect a full match with no weather interruptions.
During play: 21.9 °C on average, humidity 52%, wind 9 km/h gusting to 28. Humidity climbs from 42% to 65%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.1mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 5 Jan 2023
5 January 2023 at The Wanderers Stadium: 18 °C, humidity 87%, wind 6 km/h and 2.8 mm of rain during the hours of play. 84 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 23 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Wanderers Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are wet, with 2.8 mm of rain during the hours of play and a medium rain risk. At SA20 grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. The wettest spell is 19:00 to 20:00, overlapping the second innings. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds.
During play: 17.9 °C on average, humidity 87%, wind 6 km/h gusting to 22. Humidity climbs from 77% to 97%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 19:00–20:00, mostly over the second innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 17:30–21:05
132.5mm
145.1mm
151.9mm
160.5mm
170.1mm
180.0mm
192.4mm
200.3mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: hot, like 7 Feb 2026
7 February 2026 at The Wanderers Stadium: 26 °C, humidity 28%, wind 9 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 84 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 23 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at The Wanderers Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are hot and dry, with no rain expected during the match. Similar weather at SA20 grounds has seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The humidity rises from 21% to 37% through the evening, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at SA20 grounds. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring.
During play: 25.9 °C on average, humidity 28%, wind 9 km/h gusting to 28. Humidity climbs from 21% to 37%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Joburg Super Kings XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Faf du Plessis363 runs, SR 144 | +4.3 | – |
| 2 | Michael-Kyle Pepperkeeper220 runs, SR 135 | +2.3 | – |
| 3 | James Vince448 runs, SR 153 | +2.3 | – |
| 4 | M De Villiers151 runs, SR 116 | −1.8 | – |
| 5 | Wiaan Mulder3 overs199 runs, SR 156; 6 wkts, econ 10.03 | +0.2 | −2.6 |
| 6 | Dian Forrester1 over185 runs, SR 137; 9 wkts, econ 7.64 | +0.9 | −0.1 |
| 7 | Donavon Ferreira2 overs220 runs, SR 156; 4 wkts, econ 6.63 | +3.4 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Akeal Hosein3 overs5 wkts, econ 7.53 | – | +2.3 |
| 9 | Prenelan Subrayen3 overs12 wkts, econ 8.08 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Nandre Burger4 overs10 wkts, econ 10.18 | – | +1.0 |
| 11 | Richard Gleeson4 overs11 wkts, econ 10.79 | – | +2.4 |
Sunrisers Eastern Cape XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinton de Kockkeeper319 runs, SR 163 | +2.7 | – |
| 2 | Jonny Bairstow250 runs, SR 139 | +2.3 | – |
| 3 | Matthew Breetzke194 runs, SR 128 | +0.8 | – |
| 4 | Jordan Hermann234 runs, SR 139 | +0.4 | – |
| 5 | Tristan Stubbs219 runs, SR 127 | +1.9 | – |
| 6 | James Coles3 overs220 runs, SR 147; 7 wkts, econ 8.58 | +1.4 | −0.9 |
| 7 | Marco Jansen4 overs58 runs, SR 106; 9 wkts, econ 11.25 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| 8 | Lewis Gregory3 overs5 wkts, econ 9.96 | – | −0.3 |
| 9 | Senuran Muthusamy3 overs11 wkts, econ 7.31 | – | +1.1 |
| 10 | Adam Milne3 overs10 wkts, econ 7.95 | – | +2.0 |
| 11 | Anrich Nortje4 overs17 wkts, econ 7.62 | – | +3.2 |