Stars 56%. Strikers 44%.
KFC BBL|16, match 5Friday 18 December 2026, 7:15pm AEDTMelbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 12 innings since Sept 2023.
9 of 12 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 63% (56 of 89). BBL and T20Is.
of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Melbourne Stars are favoured for this match, with a win chance of 56% against Adelaide Strikers' 44%. The edge is almost entirely with the bat: the Stars are rated 8.4 runs better than the Strikers with the bat and 1.5 runs better with the ball, giving them a total strength advantage of about 10 runs. The Stars project 175 batting first, the Strikers 164, against a par score of 172.
The chasing record here is the sharpest angle. Chasers have won 9 of the last 12 games at this ground, and the all-time split is 56 chase wins to 33. The recent first-innings average here is 151 from 12 innings since September 2023, well below the par score of 172. Defending totals of 170 or more has been rewarded: 14 of 21 games in the 170–189 band were defended, and all six games above 190 were defended.
171 runs, SR 154, 11 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.7 runs better than an average batter. He has 171 runs at a strike rate of 154 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 11 sixes, and his career T20 strike rate is 180.9.
204 runs, SR 138, 11 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.8 runs better than an average batter and 0.5 runs better with the ball. He has 204 runs at a strike rate of 137.8 and 16 wickets at an economy of 7.6 in his last 10 T20 matches.
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 16 wickets at an economy of 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches, and his BBL economy is 7.56.
452 runs, SR 145, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.2 runs better than an average opener and 0.3 runs better with the ball. He has 452 runs at a strike rate of 144.9 and 14 wickets at an economy of 7.6 in his last 10 T20 matches.
24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches, though his selection is among the least certain.
14 wkts, econ 7.89 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 14 wickets at an economy of 7.89 in his last 10 T20 matches, but his career T20 economy is 8.53.
Melbourne, Australia · 75 BBL matches here
The first Test match was played here in March 1877 and the first one-day international in January 1971.
reached par (172). Median 153.
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 1% below their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 149, 2018–2022 154, 2023 onward 156.
31 December 2020 at Melbourne Cricket Ground: 18 °C, humidity 87%, wind 15 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 39 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Melbourne Cricket Ground during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. At Australian BBL grounds, only 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The match starts at 7:15pm AEDT, and humidity rises from 77% to 94% through the evening, but heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 18.3 °C on average, humidity 87%, wind 15 km/h gusting to 44. Humidity climbs from 77% to 94%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
6 December 2021 at Melbourne Cricket Ground: 19 °C, humidity 80%, wind 13 km/h and 2.7 mm of rain during the hours of play. 39 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Melbourne Cricket Ground during these hours.
This weather is wet, like 6 December 2021, with 2.7 mm of rain during the hours of play. Similar conditions at Australian BBL grounds have shortened or washed out 37% of games. The wettest spell is from 19:00 to 20:00, overlapping the first innings. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring at Australian BBL grounds. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility.
During play: 18.6 °C on average, humidity 80%, wind 13 km/h gusting to 35.
Heaviest rain 19:00–20:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
18 December 2017 at Melbourne Cricket Ground: 26 °C, humidity 51%, wind 9 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 39 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Melbourne Cricket Ground during these hours.
These conditions are dry and hot, with no rain expected during the match. Similar weather at Australian BBL grounds has seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds. Any rain would overlap the evening innings, but the risk is low.
During play: 26.4 °C on average, humidity 51%, wind 9 km/h gusting to 21. Humidity climbs from 45% to 61%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Rogers186 runs, SR 122 | −1.5 | – |
| 2 | Sam Harperkeeper385 runs, SR 160 | +2.4 | – |
| 3 | Finn Allen171 runs, SR 154 | +6.7 | – |
| 4 | Campbell Kellaway1 over172 runs, SR 123; 0 wkts, econ 9.00 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| 5 | Marcus Stoinis4 overs204 runs, SR 138; 16 wkts, econ 7.60 | +2.8 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Glenn Maxwell2 overs152 runs, SR 162; 3 wkts, econ 10.10 | +3.3 | −0.1 |
| 7 | Hilton Cartwright192 runs, SR 170 | +2.5 | – |
| 8 | Jamie Overton3 overs14 wkts, econ 8.89 | – | +0.4 |
| 9 | Mitch Swepson4 overs8 wkts, econ 7.07 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Todd Murphy2 overs8 wkts, econ 8.82 | – | +0.3 |
| 11 | Peter Siddle4 overs16 wkts, econ 8.59 | – | +3.4 |
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Short2 overs452 runs, SR 145; 14 wkts, econ 7.60 | +4.2 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Alex Careykeeper219 runs, SR 153 | +0.9 | – |
| 3 | Liam Scott232 runs, SR 123 | +1.6 | – |
| 4 | Jason Sangha187 runs, SR 121 | −0.9 | – |
| 5 | Mark Chapman289 runs, SR 149 | +3.0 | – |
| 6 | Ben Stokes2 overs156 runs, SR 108; 5 wkts, econ 7.96 (form 41 months old) | −0.1 | −0.9 |
| 7 | Jerrssis Wadia52 runs, SR 137 | −0.8 | – |
| 8 | Henry Thornton4 overs12 wkts, econ 8.68 | – | −0.3 |
| 9 | Hassan Aliunsigned, 4 overs24 wkts, econ 8.03 | – | +3.2 |
| 10 | Lloyd Pope4 overs14 wkts, econ 7.89 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Cameron Boyceunsigned, 4 overs8 wkts, econ 8.85 | – | +1.8 |
