Finn Allen
171 runs, SR 154, 11 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.7 runs better than an average batter. He has 171 runs at a strike rate of 154 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 11 sixes.
Stars
ParBatting+15.4Bowling+4.6Overall+20.0
Strikers
ParBatting+7.0Bowling+3.1Overall+10.2
Stars bat first
First innings175
Strikers short by37 runs
53%Stars win
47%Strikers win
Strikers bat first
First innings164
Stars chase in17.1 overs
59%Stars win
41%Strikers win
First innings
175Stars bat first
164Strikers bat first
172Par
151Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 12 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
75%
9 of 12 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 63% (56 of 89). BBL and T20Is.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Finn AllenBatting standout, Stars: 171 runs, SR 154 (last 10)
Peter SiddleBowling standout, Stars: 16 wkts, econ 8.59 (last 10)
Melbourne Stars favoured by about 10 runs on batting strength
Melbourne Stars are favoured, with a win chance of 56% against Adelaide Strikers' 44%. They are also the stronger side on paper, about 10 runs clear, and almost all of that comes from batting: an edge of 8.4 runs with the bat and 1.5 with the ball. Their projected first-innings score is 175, against 164 for Adelaide Strikers, on a ground where the par score is 172.
Chasers have won 9 of the last 12 games here, and the recent first-innings average at this ground is 151 from 12 innings. The sharpest angle is the contrast between the ground's overall record and its recent scoring: the all-time median here is 153 from 92 innings, but the par score of 172 says a first-innings total around that mark is defended about half the time.
The case for the Stars
- Batting strength of 15.4 runs above average, led by Finn Allen (6.7 runs better than an average batter) and Glenn Maxwell (3.3 runs better).
- Bowling strength of 4.6 runs above average, with Peter Siddle rated 3.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
- Projected first-innings score of 175, three runs above the par score of 172.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 16 wickets at an economy of 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting weakness
Tom Rogers
186 runs, SR 122, 5 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.5 runs worse than an average opener. He has 186 runs at a strike rate of 122.4 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Strikers
- Matt Short is rated 4.2 runs better than an average opener and has 452 runs at a strike rate of 144.9 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Hassan Ali is rated 3.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and has 24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Mark Chapman is rated 3 runs better than an average batter and has 289 runs at a strike rate of 149 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Matt Short
452 runs, SR 145, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.2 runs better than an average opener and 0.3 runs better with the ball. He has 452 runs at a strike rate of 144.9 and 14 wickets at 7.6 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Hassan Ali
24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Lloyd Pope
14 wkts, econ 7.89 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 14 wickets at an economy of 7.89 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Melbourne, Australia · 75 BBL matches here
The first Test match was played here in March 1877 and the first one-day international in January 1971.
- Opened
- 1853
- Capacity
- 100,024 seats
- Ends
- Members End · Shane Warne Stand End
- Home to
- Melbourne Stars and Melbourne Renegades (BBL)
Every first innings here
19 of 92reached par (172). Median 153.
Under par Par or more
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 1% below their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 149, 2018–2022 154, 2023 onward 156.
100150172200250
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%8 of 42
150–16925%5 of 20
170–18967%14 of 21
190–209100%3 of 3
210+100%3 of 3
Weather: dry, like 31 Dec 2020
31 December 2020 at Melbourne Cricket Ground: 18 °C, humidity 87%, wind 15 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 39 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Melbourne Cricket Ground during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. At Australian BBL grounds, only 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The match starts at 7:15pm AEDT, and humidity rises from 77% to 94% through the evening, but heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 18.3 °C on average, humidity 87%, wind 15 km/h gusting to 44. Humidity climbs from 77% to 94%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 6 Dec 2021
6 December 2021 at Melbourne Cricket Ground: 19 °C, humidity 80%, wind 13 km/h and 2.7 mm of rain during the hours of play. 39 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Melbourne Cricket Ground during these hours.
This weather is wet, like 6 December 2021, with 2.7 mm of rain during the hours of play. Similar conditions at Australian BBL grounds have shortened or washed out 37% of games. The wettest spell is from 19:00 to 20:00, overlapping the first innings. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring at Australian BBL grounds. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility.
During play: 18.6 °C on average, humidity 80%, wind 13 km/h gusting to 35.
Heaviest rain 19:00–20:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.1mm
180.8mm
192.6mm
200.1mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: hot, like 18 Dec 2017
18 December 2017 at Melbourne Cricket Ground: 26 °C, humidity 51%, wind 9 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 39 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Melbourne Cricket Ground during these hours.
These conditions are dry and hot, with no rain expected during the match. Similar weather at Australian BBL grounds has seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. The heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds. Any rain would overlap the evening innings, but the risk is low.
During play: 26.4 °C on average, humidity 51%, wind 9 km/h gusting to 21. Humidity climbs from 45% to 61%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Melbourne Stars XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Rogers186 runs, SR 122 | −1.5 | – |
| 2 | Sam Harperkeeper385 runs, SR 160 | +2.4 | – |
| 3 | Finn Allen171 runs, SR 154 | +6.7 | – |
| 4 | Campbell Kellaway1 over172 runs, SR 123; 0 wkts, econ 9.00 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| 5 | Marcus Stoinis4 overs204 runs, SR 138; 16 wkts, econ 7.60 | +2.8 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Glenn Maxwell2 overs152 runs, SR 162; 3 wkts, econ 10.10 | +3.3 | −0.1 |
| 7 | Hilton Cartwright192 runs, SR 170 | +2.5 | – |
| 8 | Jamie Overton3 overs14 wkts, econ 8.89 | – | +0.4 |
| 9 | Mitch Swepson4 overs8 wkts, econ 7.07 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Todd Murphy2 overs8 wkts, econ 8.82 | – | +0.3 |
| 11 | Peter Siddle4 overs16 wkts, econ 8.59 | – | +3.4 |
Adelaide Strikers XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Short2 overs452 runs, SR 145; 14 wkts, econ 7.60 | +4.2 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Alex Careykeeper219 runs, SR 153 | +0.9 | – |
| 3 | Liam Scott232 runs, SR 123 | +1.6 | – |
| 4 | Jason Sangha187 runs, SR 121 | −0.9 | – |
| 5 | Mark Chapman289 runs, SR 149 | +3.0 | – |
| 6 | Ben Stokes2 overs156 runs, SR 108; 5 wkts, econ 7.96 (form 41 months old) | −0.1 | −0.9 |
| 7 | Jerrssis Wadia52 runs, SR 137 | −0.8 | – |
| 8 | Henry Thornton4 overs12 wkts, econ 8.68 | – | −0.3 |
| 9 | Hassan Aliunsigned, 4 overs24 wkts, econ 8.03 | – | +3.2 |
| 10 | Lloyd Pope4 overs14 wkts, econ 7.89 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Cameron Boyceunsigned, 4 overs8 wkts, econ 8.85 | – | +1.8 |