Finn Allen
171 runs, SR 154, 11 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.7 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.7 runs better than an average batter. He has 171 runs at a strike rate of 154 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 11 sixes.
Stars
ParBatting+15.4Bowling+4.6Overall+20.0
Heat
ParBatting+9.5Bowling−1.1Overall+8.4
Stars bat first
First innings183
Heat short by34 runs
51%Stars win
49%Heat win
Heat bat first
First innings174
Stars chase in18 overs
57%Stars win
43%Heat win
First innings
183Stars bat first
174Heat bat first
178Par
–Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. No completed first innings here since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
0%
0 of 2 won chasing all-time. No completed game here in the last three years. BBL only.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Finn AllenBatting standout, Stars: 171 runs, SR 154 (last 10)
Peter SiddleBowling standout, Stars: 16 wkts, econ 8.59 (last 10)
HeatBowling weakness: −1.1 runs a game. Neser econ 9.85 in the last 10.
Melbourne Stars favoured by about 12 runs on paper
Melbourne Stars are favoured, with a win chance of 54% to Brisbane Heat's 46%. The edge is about 12 runs on paper, built from both batting and bowling: Stars are 6 runs better with the bat and 5.7 runs better with the ball. Their team strength is 20 runs against an average side, while Heat are 8.4 runs better than average.
Stars project 183 batting first, Heat 174, against a par score of 178. The recent league first-innings average is 170 from 60 innings. At this ground, the all-time median is 205 from 2 games, and both totals were defended. Chasing here has not worked: teams batting first have won 2 of 2. The sharpest angle is the bowling gap, with Stars 5.7 runs ahead.
The case for the Stars
- Projected 183 batting first, 9 runs above par.
- Batting is 15.4 runs better than average and bowling 4.6 runs better than average.
- Finn Allen, Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis all rate above average with the bat.
Batting standouts
Marcus Stoinis
204 runs, SR 138, 11 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.8 runs better than an average batter and 0.5 runs better than an average bowler. He has 204 runs at a strike rate of 137.8 and 16 wickets at an economy of 7.6 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Glenn Maxwell
152 runs, SR 162, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.3 runs better than an average batter. He has 152 runs at a strike rate of 161.7 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.4 runs better than an average bowler. He has 16 wickets at an economy of 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Heat
- Projected 174 batting first, 4 runs below par.
- Matthew Renshaw and Max Bryant rate above average with the bat.
- Xavier Bartlett and Matt Kuhnemann rate above average with the ball.
Batting standout
Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.3 runs better than an average batter. He has 270 runs at a strike rate of 126.2 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Junction Oval
Melbourne, Australia · 2 BBL matches here
St Kilda's ground dates from 1856 and reopened in 2018 after a $40 million rebuild as Cricket Victoria's headquarters and Sheffield Shield home.
- Opened
- 1856
- Capacity
- 7,000 seats
- Home to
- Cricket Victoria; Melbourne Stars (BBL)
Every first innings here
2 of 2reached par (178). Median 205.
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 3% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 –, 2018–2022 205, 2023 onward –.
Too few completed first innings here to chart. Par comes from recent BBL scoring and the ground's record.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 150No games
150–169No games
170–189100%1 of 1
190–209No games
210+100%1 of 1
Weather: dry, like 5 Jan 2026
5 January 2026 at Junction Oval: 18 °C, humidity 61%, wind 15 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 36 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 21 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Junction Oval during these hours.
These conditions are dry, like 5 January 2026 at Junction Oval: 18°C, 61% humidity, 15 km/h wind and no rain during play. Rain risk is low. At Australian BBL grounds, 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, 26 of 636. Rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 18.4 °C on average, humidity 61%, wind 16 km/h gusting to 45.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 2 Dec 2023
2 December 2023 at Junction Oval: 15 °C, humidity 92%, wind 18 km/h and 2.6 mm of rain during the hours of play. 36 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 21 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Junction Oval during these hours.
These conditions are wet, like 2 December 2023 at Junction Oval, with 2.6 mm of rain during the hours of play. The wettest spell runs from 19:00 to 21:00 and overlaps the first innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 14.9 °C on average, humidity 92%, wind 18 km/h gusting to 40.
Heaviest rain 19:00–21:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 19:15–22:50
152.2mm
163.4mm
172.4mm
181.7mm
191.5mm
201.0mm
210.1mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: hot, like 30 Nov 2017
30 November 2017 at Junction Oval: 27 °C, humidity 57%, wind 13 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 36 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 21 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Junction Oval during these hours.
This weather is hot and dry, with no rain expected during the match. At Australian BBL grounds, only 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring. The first innings is the only one that could overlap with any rain, but none is forecast.
During play: 26.8 °C on average, humidity 57%, wind 13 km/h gusting to 26.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Melbourne Stars XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Rogers186 runs, SR 122 | −1.5 | – |
| 2 | Sam Harperkeeper385 runs, SR 160 | +2.4 | – |
| 3 | Finn Allen171 runs, SR 154 | +6.7 | – |
| 4 | Campbell Kellaway1 over172 runs, SR 123; 0 wkts, econ 9.00 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| 5 | Marcus Stoinis4 overs204 runs, SR 138; 16 wkts, econ 7.60 | +2.8 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Glenn Maxwell2 overs152 runs, SR 162; 3 wkts, econ 10.10 | +3.3 | −0.1 |
| 7 | Hilton Cartwright192 runs, SR 170 | +2.5 | – |
| 8 | Jamie Overton3 overs14 wkts, econ 8.89 | – | +0.4 |
| 9 | Mitch Swepson4 overs8 wkts, econ 7.07 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Todd Murphy2 overs8 wkts, econ 8.82 | – | +0.3 |
| 11 | Peter Siddle4 overs16 wkts, econ 8.59 | – | +3.4 |
Brisbane Heat XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Wildermuth3 overs222 runs, SR 159; 10 wkts, econ 9.92 | +0.5 | −2.0 |
| 2 | Nathan McSweeney210 runs, SR 146 | +0.1 | – |
| 3 | Tim Robinson178 runs, SR 131 | +0.7 | – |
| 4 | Matthew Renshaw2 overs270 runs, SR 126; 3 wkts, econ 7.00 | +3.3 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Max Bryant222 runs, SR 152 | +2.2 | – |
| 6 | Tom Curran3 overs12 wkts, econ 7.71 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Hugh Weibgen151 runs, SR 107 | −0.3 | – |
| 8 | Jimmy Peirsonkeeper, unsigned145 runs, SR 131 | +0.4 | – |
| 9 | Xavier Bartlett4 overs11 wkts, econ 7.82 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Michael Neser4 overs13 wkts, econ 9.85 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Matt Kuhnemann4 overs9 wkts, econ 7.29 | – | +0.8 |