Steve Smith
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.5 runs better than an average batter. He has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 17 sixes.
Sixers
ParBatting+11.8Bowling+2.2Overall+14.0
Renegades
ParBatting+3.3Bowling−3.8Overall−0.5
Sixers bat first
First innings185
Renegades short by39 runs
75%Sixers win
25%Renegades win
Renegades bat first
First innings172
Sixers chase in17.4 overs
79%Sixers win
21%Renegades win
First innings
185Sixers bat first
172Renegades bat first
179Par
169Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 14 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
50%
7 of 14 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 54% (39 of 72). BBL and T20Is.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Steve SmithBatting standout, Sixers: 285 runs, SR 161 (last 10)
Ben DwarshuisBowling standout, Sixers: 17 wkts, econ 8.85 (last 10)
RenegadesBowling weakness: −3.8 runs a game. Sutherland econ 9.15 in the last 10.
Sydney Sixers favoured by about 14 runs at the SCG
Sydney Sixers are favoured, with a win chance of 77% and a paper edge of about 14 runs. That gap comes from both batting and bowling: they are 8.5 runs better with the bat and 5.9 runs better with the ball. Their team strength is 14 runs above average, while Melbourne Renegades are 0.5 runs below average. The Sixers have the stronger top order and the better attack, and the Renegades' bowling rates 3.8 runs worse than average.
The SCG has been a good ground for chasing, with 7 wins each for batting first and chasing in the last 14 games here. The projected first-innings scores are 185 for the Sixers and 172 for the Renegades, against a par score of 179. The sharpest angle is the Renegades' bowling: Will Sutherland is rated 2.3 runs worse than an average bowler, and Tom Rogers is 1 run worse. The Sixers' Ben Dwarshuis is rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler and has 17 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Sixers
- Batting edge of 8.5 runs, with Steve Smith rated 4.5 runs better than an average batter and Tim Seifert 3.1 runs better.
- Bowling edge of 5.9 runs, with Ben Dwarshuis rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler and Sean Abbott 1.1 runs better.
- Team strength of 14 runs above average, compared to Melbourne Renegades' 0.5 runs below average.
Batting standouts
Tim Seifert
301 runs, SR 135, 12 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.1 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.1 runs better than an average opener. He has 301 runs at a strike rate of 135 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Ben Dwarshuis
17 wkts, econ 8.85 in the last 10. Rated +1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler. He has 17 wickets at an economy of 8.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Renegades
- Josh Brown is rated 2.8 runs better than an average opener and has 311 runs at a strike rate of 150.2 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Jake Fraser-McGurk is rated 2.1 runs better than an average opener.
- Jason Behrendorff is rated 0.9 runs better than an average bowler.
Batting standout
Josh Brown
311 runs, SR 150, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.8 runs better than an average opener. He has 311 runs at a strike rate of 150.2 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 20 sixes.
Bowling weaknesses
Will Sutherland
7 wkts, econ 9.15 in the last 10. Rated −2.3 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.3 runs worse than an average bowler. He has 7 wickets at an economy of 9.15 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Tom Rogers
9 wkts, econ 10.32 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler. He has 9 wickets at an economy of 10.32 in his last 10 T20 matches.
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Sydney Cricket Ground
Sydney, Australia · 70 BBL matches here
Laid out as the Garrison Ground in 1854 and named the Sydney Cricket Ground in 1894, it held its first Test in February 1882.
- Opened
- 1854
- Capacity
- 48,000 seats
- Ends
- Paddington End · Randwick End
- Home to
- Sydney Sixers (BBL)
Every first innings here
23 of 81reached par (179). Median 164.
Under par Par or more
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored about 3% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 158, 2018–2022 164, 2023 onward 157.
100150179200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15014%3 of 21
150–16943%10 of 23
170–18964%9 of 14
190–20973%8 of 11
210+100%3 of 3
Weather: dry, like 1 Jan 2023
1 January 2023 at Sydney Cricket Ground: 22 °C, humidity 78%, wind 15 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 36 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Sydney Cricket Ground during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. At Australian BBL grounds, only 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 21.7 °C on average, humidity 78%, wind 15 km/h gusting to 38. Humidity climbs from 71% to 82%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 26 Dec 2020
26 December 2020 at Sydney Cricket Ground: 20 °C, humidity 80%, wind 21 km/h and 1.8 mm of rain during the hours of play. 36 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Sydney Cricket Ground during these hours.
These conditions are wet, with 1.8 mm of rain during the hours of play and a wettest spell from 20:00 to 22:00 that overlaps both innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Rain risk is medium. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds. Runs lines assume 20 overs.
During play: 20.3 °C on average, humidity 80%, wind 21 km/h gusting to 48. Humidity climbs from 72% to 86%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 20:00–22:00, mostly over both innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.1mm
200.7mm
210.8mm
220.2mm
230.2mm
Weather: hot, like 1 Jan 2025
1 January 2025 at Sydney Cricket Ground: 25 °C, humidity 69%, wind 17 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 36 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Sydney Cricket Ground during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during play. At Australian BBL grounds, only 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 24.6 °C on average, humidity 69%, wind 17 km/h gusting to 48. Humidity climbs from 63% to 77%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Sydney Sixers XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Seifert301 runs, SR 135 | +3.1 | – |
| 2 | Steve Smith285 runs, SR 161 | +4.5 | – |
| 3 | Josh Philippekeeper267 runs, SR 153 | +1.4 | – |
| 4 | Ollie Davies1 over174 runs, SR 112; 0 wkts, econ 12.00 | +0.4 | −0.5 |
| 5 | Jordan Silk193 runs, SR 118 | +0.7 | – |
| 6 | Jack Edwards4 overs41 runs, SR 95; 10 wkts, econ 9.49 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Lachlan Shaw188 runs, SR 146 | +0.6 | – |
| 8 | Joel Davies3 overs12 wkts, econ 6.77 | – | +1.2 |
| 9 | Ben Dwarshuis4 overs17 wkts, econ 8.85 | – | +1.8 |
| 10 | Fergus O'Neill4 overs7 wkts, econ 7.84 | – | −2.1 |
| 11 | Sean Abbott4 overs6 wkts, econ 8.95 | – | +1.1 |
Melbourne Renegades XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Brown311 runs, SR 150 | +2.8 | – |
| 2 | Jake Fraser-McGurk163 runs, SR 138 | +2.1 | – |
| 3 | Caleb Jewell155 runs, SR 129 | −0.5 | – |
| 4 | Muhammad Rizwankeeper, unsigned204 runs, SR 117 | +0.3 | – |
| 5 | Ollie Peake188 runs, SR 134 | +0.5 | – |
| 6 | Will Sutherland4 overs120 runs, SR 120; 7 wkts, econ 9.15 | +1.5 | −2.3 |
| 7 | Sam Elliott3 overs23 runs, SR 72; 5 wkts, econ 7.96 | −1.7 | −0.6 |
| 8 | Tom Rogers4 overs9 wkts, econ 10.32 | – | −1.0 |
| 9 | Michael Archer2 overs0 wkts, econ 7.50 | – | −1.0 |
| 10 | Callum Stow3 overs6 wkts, econ 7.36 | – | +0.2 |
| 11 | Jason Behrendorff4 overs6 wkts, econ 9.19 | – | +0.9 |