Quinton de Kock
319 runs, SR 163, 22 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.8 runs a game with the bat.
319 runs at a strike rate of 162.8 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 22 sixes. Rated 2.8 runs better than an average batter.
Lions
ParBatting−8.8Bowling−3.5Overall−12.2
North West
ParBatting−10.0Bowling−10.7Overall−20.6
Lions bat first
First innings173
North West short by37 runs
76%Lions win
24%North West win
North West bat first
First innings161
Lions chase in18 overs
76%Lions win
24%North West win
First innings
173Lions bat first
161North West bat first
170Par
173Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 27 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
50%
11 of 22 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 49% (47 of 95). CSA T20 Challenge, SA20, T20Is, Mzansi Super League and IPL.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
5%of games in dry weather at South African grounds were shortened (27 of 496).
Strengths and weaknesses
Quinton de KockBatting standout, Lions: 319 runs, SR 163 (last 10)
Bjorn FortuinBowling standout, Lions: 16 wkts, econ 6.58 (last 10)
North WestBowling weakness: −10.7 runs a game. Dupavillon econ 10.12 in the last 10.
Lions favoured by about 8 runs, driven by bowling
Lions are favoured for this Pro20 Cup match at The Wanderers, with a win chance of 76% and an edge of about 8 runs on paper. That edge comes almost entirely from bowling: Lions are 7.2 runs better with the ball, while their batting advantage is just 1.2 runs. Both sides rate below average overall, but North West's bowling is the weaker unit, rated 10.7 runs worse than average.
The runs picture points to a par score of 170, with Lions projected to make 173 batting first and North West 161. Recent games here have averaged 173, and the league average is 160. Chasing has been a coin flip here lately: 11 wins each in the last 22. The sharpest angle is North West's bowling, which could struggle to contain a Lions batting line-up that includes Quinton de Kock in strong form.
The case for the Lions
- Bowling unit is 7.2 runs better than North West's, with Fortuin and Coetzee both rated above average.
- Quinton de Kock is in strong form: 319 runs at a strike rate of 162.8 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Projected first-innings score of 173 is above the par score of 170.
Batting standouts
Reeza Hendricks
302 runs, SR 136, 12 sixes in the last 10. Rated +1.2 runs a game with the bat.
302 runs at a strike rate of 136 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 1.2 runs better than an average opener.
Bowling standout
Bjorn Fortuin
16 wkts, econ 6.58 in the last 10. Rated +2.0 runs a game with the ball.
16 wickets at an economy of 6.58 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
The case for the North West
- Dian Forrester provides batting and bowling: 185 runs at a strike rate of 137 and 9 wickets at an economy of 7.64 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Rubin Hermann has recent form: 178 runs at a strike rate of 138 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Dian Forrester
185 runs, SR 137, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +1.0 runs a game with the bat.
185 runs at a strike rate of 137 and 9 wickets at an economy of 7.64 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 1 run better than an average batter.
Bowling weakness
Daryn Dupavillon
11 wkts, econ 10.12 in the last 10. Rated −2.5 runs a game with the ball.
11 wickets but an economy of 10.12 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 2.5 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.
The Wanderers Stadium
Johannesburg, South Africa · 33 CSA T20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2005
- Men's T20s
- 109
Every first innings here
48 of 104reached par (170). Median 168.
Under par Par or more
Recent CSA T20 first innings average 160; games here have scored about 4% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 163, 2018–2022 185, 2023 onward 168.
100150170200250
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15017%5 of 30
150–16952%12 of 23
170–18953%8 of 15
190–20980%12 of 15
210+92%11 of 12
Weather: forecast
The Wanderers Stadium, Friday 2 October: no rain expected during the hours of play, the chance never above 1%.
The forecast for Friday evening is dry, with no rain expected during play and the chance never above 1%. Only 5% of games in similar dry weather at South African grounds have been shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Conditions are cool, around 13°C, with moderate humidity, but heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at South African grounds.
During play: 13.4 °C on average, humidity 71%, wind 5 km/h gusting to 18. Humidity climbs from 63% to 76%; at South African grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 18:00–21:35
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Lions XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zubayr Hamza247 runs, SR 107 (form 22 months old) | −4.8 | – |
| 2 | Reeza Hendricks1 over302 runs, SR 136 | +1.2 | −0.4 |
| 3 | Wandile Makwetu113 runs, SR 119 (form 23 months old) | −2.1 | – |
| 4 | Quinton de Kockkeeper319 runs, SR 163 | +2.8 | – |
| 5 | Mitchell van Buuren148 runs, SR 93 (form 19 months old) | −1.9 | – |
| 6 | Connor Esterhuizen305 runs, SR 167 | −0.5 | – |
| 7 | Delano Potgieter3 overs43 runs, SR 96; 3 wkts, econ 8.68 | −1.1 | −1.0 |
| 8 | Gerald Coetzee4 overs13 wkts, econ 7.98 | – | +0.3 |
| 9 | Bjorn Fortuin4 overs16 wkts, econ 6.58 | – | +2.0 |
| 10 | Lutho Sipamla4 overs10 wkts, econ 10.86 | – | −1.0 |
| 11 | Nqaba Peter4 overs5 wkts, econ 8.97 | – | −3.3 |
North West XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meeka-eel Princekeeper158 runs, SR 133 (form 23 months old) | −2.8 | – |
| 2 | Wihan Lubbe2 overs140 runs, SR 112; 2 wkts, econ 10.78 | +0.3 | −1.5 |
| 3 | Raynard van Tonder1 over220 runs, SR 112; 0 wkts, econ 8.00 (form 23 months old) | −2.3 | −0.6 |
| 4 | Rubin Hermann178 runs, SR 138 | −0.5 | – |
| 5 | Lesiba Ngoepe1 over205 runs, SR 128; 3 wkts, econ 9.75 (form 23 months old) | −1.5 | −0.7 |
| 6 | Dian Forrester3 overs185 runs, SR 137; 9 wkts, econ 7.64 | +1.0 | −0.2 |
| 7 | Ruan de Swardt2 overs68 runs, SR 90; 4 wkts, econ 10.00 | −1.9 | −1.5 |
| 8 | Caleb Seleka4 overs9 wkts, econ 6.39 (form 23 months old) | – | −1.0 |
| 9 | Juan James1 match, 3 runs off 3 balls (form 23 months old) | – | – |
| 10 | Daryn Dupavillon4 overs11 wkts, econ 10.12 (form 20 months old) | – | −2.5 |
| 11 | Mthiwekhaya Nabe3 overs8 wkts, econ 10.42 (form 23 months old) | – | −2.6 |