Oddsworth

Western Province v Boland: Western Province 73% to win

Western Province 73%. Boland 27%.

Pro20 Cup 2026/27, match 37Wednesday 14 October 2026, 6:00pm SASTNewlands, Cape Town

Western Province

ParBatting−5.1Bowling−0.9Overall−6.0

Boland

ParBatting−18.9Bowling−7.7Overall−26.6

Western Province bat first

First innings160
Boland short by38 runs
72%Western Province win
28%Boland win

Boland bat first

First innings145
Western Province chase in17.2 overs
73%Western Province win
27%Boland win

First innings

160Western Province bat first
145Boland bat first
164Par
167Recent average here

Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 18 innings since Sept 2023.

Chasing here

56%

10 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 55% (42 of 77). SA20, CSA T20 Challenge, T20Is, Mzansi Super League and IPL.

Rain risk

5%

of games in dry weather at South African grounds were shortened (27 of 496).

The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.

Strengths and weaknesses

Josh van HeerdenBatting standout, Western Province: 355 runs, SR 152 (last 10)
George LindeBowling standout, Western Province: 12 wkts, econ 7.91 (last 10)
BolandBatting weakness: −18.9 runs a game. Kaplan SR 116 in the last 10.

Western Province favoured by about 21 runs on paper

Western Province are favoured, with a 73% win chance and a paper edge of about 21 runs. That gap is mostly batting: their batters are rated 13.7 runs better than Boland's, with a further 6.9-run bowling edge. Both sides rate below average overall, but Boland's batting is the weaker unit at 18.9 runs worse than average.

Western Province project 160 batting first, Boland 145, against a par score of 164. Chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games here, and the recent first-innings average at Newlands is 167 from 18 innings. The sharpest angle is Boland's batting: Gavin Kaplan, their leading recent scorer, has 195 runs at a strike rate of 116 in his last 10 T20 matches.

The case for the Western Province

  • Batting edge of 13.7 runs over Boland, led by Josh van Heerden's 355 runs at a strike rate of 151.7 in his last 10 T20 matches.
  • Bowling edge of 6.9 runs, with George Linde rated 1.7 runs better than an average bowler and Nandre Burger 1 run better.
  • Projected 160 batting first, 15 runs more than Boland's 145, against a par score of 164.

Batting standout

Josh van Heerden

355 runs, SR 152, 13 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.6 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 2.6 runs better than an average batter. His last 10 T20 matches brought 355 runs at a strike rate of 151.7, with 13 sixes, and he also took 6 wickets at an economy of 6.98.

Bowling standouts

George Linde

12 wkts, econ 7.91 in the last 10. Rated +1.7 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 1.7 runs better than an average bowler and 1.1 better with the bat. His last 10 T20 matches produced 12 wickets at an economy of 7.91 and 202 runs at a strike rate of 146.4.

Nandre Burger

10 wkts, econ 10.18 in the last 10. Rated +1.0 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 1 run better than an average bowler. His last 10 T20 matches brought 10 wickets, though at an economy of 10.18, and he has taken 84 wickets in 82 career T20 matches.

The case for the Boland

  • Lizaad Williams has 17 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches, the best recent haul in either squad.
  • Imraan Manack has a career T20 economy of 6.56 from 29 matches, the tightest in the Boland attack.
  • Chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games here, which may suit Boland if they bowl first.

Batting weaknesses

Gavin Kaplan

195 runs, SR 116, 3 sixes in the last 10. Rated −3.2 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 3.2 runs worse than an average opener. His last 10 T20 matches brought 195 runs at a strike rate of 116.1, and that form is 23 months old.

Neil Brand

92 runs, SR 103, 2 sixes in the last 10. Rated −3.9 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 3.9 runs worse than an average opener on limited data. His last 10 T20 matches brought 92 runs at a strike rate of 103.4, and that form is 23 months old.

Bowling weakness

Lizaad Williams

17 wkts, econ 9.47 in the last 10. Rated −1.1 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 1.1 runs worse than an average bowler. His last 10 T20 matches brought 17 wickets but at an economy of 9.47, and his career T20 economy is 8.91.

Newlands

Cape Town, South Africa · 22 CSA T20 matches here

First men's T20
2007
Men's T20s
84

The ground's full record

Every first innings here

27 of 80

reached par (164). Median 156.

Under par Par or more

Recent CSA T20 first innings average 160; games here have scored in line with their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 148, 2018–2022 173, 2023 onward 158.

What total is safe?

First inningsDefended
Under 15019%6 of 32
150–16958%11 of 19
170–18959%10 of 17
190–20986%6 of 7
210+100%2 of 2

Weather: warm, like 3 Nov 2018

3 November 2018 at Newlands: 19 °C, humidity 54%, wind 4 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 14 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 14 October in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.

These conditions are dry: 0 mm of rain during the hours of play, with a low rain risk. At South African grounds, 5% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out (27 of 496). Any rain would overlap the evening innings, but none is expected. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at South African grounds.

During play: 19.0 °C on average, humidity 54%, wind 4 km/h gusting to 28. Humidity climbs from 38% to 66%; at South African grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.

Western Province XI

Batting positionPlayer and last 10BatBowl
1Daniel Smithkeeper234 runs, SR 125−2.0–
2Valentine Kitime116 runs, SR 98 (form 23 months old)−3.0–
3Josh van Heerden2 overs355 runs, SR 152; 6 wkts, econ 6.98+2.6−0.6
4Eddie Moore293 runs, SR 119 (form 23 months old)−0.2–
5David Bedinghamunsigned198 runs, SR 130+0.1–
6Kyle Verreynneunsigned184 runs, SR 107+0.3–
7Mihlali Mpongwana4 overs171 runs, SR 106; 12 wkts, econ 8.34 (form 23 months old)−2.0−1.8
8George Linde4 overs12 wkts, econ 7.91–+1.7
9Oliver Whitehead2 overs1 wkts, econ 10.50 (form 23 months old)–−1.2
10Kyle Simmonds4 overs8 wkts, econ 6.22 (form 19 months old)–+0.1
11Nandre Burger4 overs10 wkts, econ 10.18–+1.0

Team record and squad

Boland XI

Batting positionPlayer and last 10BatBowl
1Gavin Kaplan195 runs, SR 116 (form 23 months old)−3.2–
2Neil Brand92 runs, SR 103 (form 23 months old)−3.9–
3Lehan Botha101 runs, SR 138 (form 23 months old)−2.8–
4Ferisco Adams4 overs54 runs, SR 146; 10 wkts, econ 8.80 (form 23 months old)−1.7−1.8
5Ruan Terblanche6 matches, 0 runs off 3 balls (form 151 months old)−2.6–
6Glenton Stuurman4 overs15 wkts, econ 8.07 (form 23 months old)−2.0−2.0
7Imraan Manack4 overs55 runs, SR 138; 7 wkts, econ 7.34 (form 23 months old)−0.9−1.1
8Lizaad Williams4 overs17 wkts, econ 9.47–−1.1
9Siyabonga Mahima4 overs6 wkts, econ 6.61 (form 23 months old)–−1.7
10Akhona Mnyaka10 matches, 13 runs off 14 balls (form 23 months old)––
11Achille Cloete5 matches, 0 runs off 0 balls (form 23 months old)––

Team record and squad

Share