Mujeeb Ur Rahman
15 wkts, econ 8.68 in the last 10. Rated +3.5 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.5 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 15 wickets at an economy of 8.68 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Royals
ParBatting+6.1Bowling+9.1Overall+15.2
Super Kings
ParBatting+10.3Bowling+4.2Overall+14.5
Royals bat first
First innings167
Super Kings short by31 runs
53%Royals win
47%Super Kings win
Super Kings bat first
First innings161
Royals chase in17.3 overs
52%Royals win
48%Super Kings win
First innings
167Royals bat first
161Super Kings bat first
167Par
164Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 18 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
44%
8 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 51% (25 of 49). SA20, CSA T20 Challenge, Mzansi Super League and T20Is.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at SA20 grounds were shortened or washed out (34 of 91).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Faf du PlessisBatting standout, Super Kings: 363 runs, SR 144 (last 10)
Mujeeb Ur RahmanBowling standout, Royals: 15 wkts, econ 8.68 (last 10)
Super KingsBowling weakness: +4.2 runs a game. Mulder econ 10.03 in the last 10.
Too close to call as Paarl's bowling meets Joburg's batting
This is too close to call. Paarl Royals are stronger on paper by about 1 run, but the win chances are 53% to 47% and the edges split cleanly: Joburg Super Kings are 4.2 runs better with the bat, Paarl 5 runs better with the ball. Paarl's total of 15.2 runs versus average is built on a bowling group rated 9.1 runs better than average, while Joburg's 14.5 leans on batting worth 10.3.
The runs picture points to a par score of 167, with Paarl projected to make 167 batting first and Joburg 161. The recent league first-innings average is 165 from 60 innings, and the recent average here is 164 from 18 games. Teams batting first have won 10 of the last 18 here, and 150–169 has been defended 55% of the time, so the sharpest angle is whether Joburg's batting edge can outweigh Paarl's bowling.
The case for the Royals
- Bowling group is rated 9.1 runs better than average, the stronger unit on either side.
- Mujeeb Ur Rahman is rated 3.5 runs better than an average bowler and has 15 wickets at an economy of 8.68 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Bjorn Fortuin is rated 2 runs better than an average bowler and has 16 wickets at an economy of 6.58 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standouts
Bjorn Fortuin
16 wkts, econ 6.58 in the last 10. Rated +2.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 16 wickets at an economy of 6.58 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
N Mokoena
11 wkts, econ 9.36 in the last 10. Rated −2.1 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.1 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 11 wickets at an economy of 9.36 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Super Kings
- Batting group is rated 10.3 runs better than average, the stronger unit on either side.
- Faf du Plessis is rated 4.3 runs better than an average opener and has 363 runs at a strike rate of 143.5 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- James Vince is rated 2.3 runs better than an average top-order batter and has 448 runs at a strike rate of 152.9 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standouts
Faf du Plessis
363 runs, SR 144, 14 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.3 runs better than an average opener. He has 363 runs at a strike rate of 143.5 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 14 sixes.
James Vince
448 runs, SR 153, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +2.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 2.3 runs better than an average top-order batter. He has 448 runs at a strike rate of 152.9 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 20 sixes.
Bowling weakness
Wiaan Mulder
6 wkts, econ 10.03 in the last 10. Rated −2.6 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.6 runs worse than an average bowler over his expected overs. He has 6 wickets at an economy of 10.03 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Boland Park
Paarl, South Africa · 20 SA20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2012
- Men's T20s
- 49
Every first innings here
18 of 49reached par (167). Median 158.
Under par Par or more
Recent SA20 first innings average 165; games here have scored about 1% below their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 151, 2018–2022 161, 2023 onward 160.
100150167200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15030%6 of 20
150–16955%6 of 11
170–18958%7 of 12
190–20980%4 of 5
210+100%1 of 1
Weather: dry, like 16 Jan 2025
16 January 2025 at Boland Park: 25 °C, humidity 39%, wind 17 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 8 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Boland Park during these hours.
These conditions are dry, like 16 January 2025 at Boland Park: 25 °C, humidity 39%, wind 17 km/h and no rain during the hours of play. Rain risk is low. At SA20 grounds, 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds.
During play: 25.5 °C on average, humidity 39%, wind 17 km/h gusting to 43. Humidity climbs from 25% to 45%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 30 Dec 2023
30 December 2023 at Boland Park: 25 °C, humidity 65%, wind 10 km/h and 3 mm of rain during the hours of play. 8 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Boland Park during these hours.
These conditions carry a medium rain risk, with 3 mm during the hours of play and the wettest spell from 18:00 to 19:00, overlapping the first innings. At SA20 grounds, 37% of games in similar wet weather were shortened or washed out (34 of 91). Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility.
During play: 25.1 °C on average, humidity 65%, wind 10 km/h gusting to 35. Humidity climbs from 56% to 69%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 18:00–19:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.8mm
160.0mm
170.3mm
182.6mm
190.1mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: hot, like 26 Jan 2019
26 January 2019 at Boland Park: 31 °C, humidity 31%, wind 14 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 8 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 18 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Boland Park during these hours.
These conditions are hot and dry, with no rain expected during play. Only 4% of games at SA20 grounds in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds. The par score of 167 and the projections of 167 and 161 stand on that basis.
During play: 30.8 °C on average, humidity 31%, wind 14 km/h gusting to 43. Humidity climbs from 15% to 47%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Paarl Royals XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LG Pretoriuskeeper378 runs, SR 176 | +3.0 | – |
| 2 | Asa Tribe187 runs, SR 126 | +0.5 | – |
| 3 | Rubin Hermann178 runs, SR 138 | −0.5 | – |
| 4 | Daniel Lawrence231 runs, SR 151 | +2.4 | – |
| 5 | David Miller175 runs, SR 148 | +2.8 | – |
| 6 | Sikandar Raza4 overs141 runs, SR 103; 4 wkts, econ 8.38 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Delano Potgieter43 runs, SR 96 | −1.2 | – |
| 8 | Bjorn Fortuin4 overs16 wkts, econ 6.58 | – | +2.0 |
| 9 | N Mokoena4 overs11 wkts, econ 9.36 | – | −2.1 |
| 10 | Mujeeb Ur Rahman4 overs15 wkts, econ 8.68 | – | +3.5 |
| 11 | Ottniel Baartman4 overs20 wkts, econ 7.57 | – | +3.5 |
Joburg Super Kings XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Faf du Plessis363 runs, SR 144 | +4.3 | – |
| 2 | Michael-Kyle Pepperkeeper220 runs, SR 135 | +2.3 | – |
| 3 | James Vince448 runs, SR 153 | +2.3 | – |
| 4 | M De Villiers151 runs, SR 116 | −1.8 | – |
| 5 | Wiaan Mulder3 overs199 runs, SR 156; 6 wkts, econ 10.03 | +0.2 | −2.6 |
| 6 | Dian Forrester1 over185 runs, SR 137; 9 wkts, econ 7.64 | +0.9 | −0.1 |
| 7 | Donavon Ferreira2 overs220 runs, SR 156; 4 wkts, econ 6.63 | +3.4 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Akeal Hosein3 overs5 wkts, econ 7.53 | – | +2.3 |
| 9 | Prenelan Subrayen3 overs12 wkts, econ 8.08 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Nandre Burger4 overs10 wkts, econ 10.18 | – | +1.0 |
| 11 | Richard Gleeson4 overs11 wkts, econ 10.79 | – | +2.4 |