Nicolas Pooran
475 runs, SR 200, 44 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.1 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.1 runs better than an average batter. He made 475 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 199.6, with 44 sixes.
MI Cape Town
ParBatting+12.8Bowling+14.8Overall+27.6
Super Kings
ParBatting+10.3Bowling+4.2Overall+14.5
MI Cape Town bat first
First innings176
Super Kings short by35 runs
67%MI Cape Town win
33%Super Kings win
Super Kings bat first
First innings164
MI Cape Town chase in17.3 overs
66%MI Cape Town win
34%Super Kings win
First innings
176MI Cape Town bat first
164Super Kings bat first
169Par
167Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 18 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
56%
10 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 55% (42 of 77). SA20, CSA T20 Challenge, T20Is, Mzansi Super League and IPL.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at SA20 grounds were shortened or washed out (34 of 91).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Faf du PlessisBatting standout, Super Kings: 363 runs, SR 144 (last 10)
Rashid KhanBowling standout, MI Cape Town: 13 wkts, econ 9.78 (last 10)
Super KingsBowling weakness: +4.2 runs a game. Mulder econ 10.03 in the last 10.
MI Cape Town favoured at home by about 13 runs
MI Cape Town are favoured, with a 66% win chance and a paper edge of about 13 runs over Joburg Super Kings. Almost all of that gap comes from bowling: MI Cape Town are about 11 runs better with the ball and 2.5 runs better with the bat. Their projected 176 batting first against Joburg's 164 sits above the par score of 169.
Chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games here, and the recent first-innings average at Newlands is 167 from 18 innings. The sharpest angle is the bowling mismatch: MI Cape Town's attack is rated 14.8 runs better than average, while Joburg's is only 4.2 better. Joburg need their batting to cover a bowling unit that gives back runs.
The case for the MI Cape Town
- Bowling unit is rated 14.8 runs better than average, led by Rashid Khan at 6.1 and Corbin Bosch at 3.1 runs better than average.
- Batting is rated 12.8 runs better than average, with Nicolas Pooran 4.1 and Ryan Rickelton 4 runs better than average.
- Projected first-innings score of 176 is above the par score of 169.
Batting standout
Bowling standouts
Rashid Khan
13 wkts, econ 9.78 in the last 10. Rated +6.1 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 6.1 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. His last 10 T20 matches brought 13 wickets, and he has 14 innings at this ground.
Corbin Bosch
17 wkts, econ 7.35 in the last 10. Rated +3.1 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.1 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He took 17 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.35.
The case for the Super Kings
- Faf du Plessis is rated 4.3 runs better than an average opener and made 363 runs in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Donavon Ferreira is rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter and scored 220 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 156.
- Akeal Hosein is rated 2.3 runs better than an average bowler and took 5 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.53.
Batting standout
Faf du Plessis
363 runs, SR 144, 14 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.3 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.3 runs better than an average opener. He scored 363 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 143.5.
Batting weakness
M De Villiers
151 runs, SR 116, 2 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average batter. He made 151 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 116.2.
Bowling weakness
Wiaan Mulder
6 wkts, econ 10.03 in the last 10. Rated −2.6 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.6 runs worse than an average bowler over three overs. His last 10 T20 matches brought 6 wickets at an economy of 10.03.
Newlands
Cape Town, South Africa · 23 SA20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2007
- Men's T20s
- 84
Every first innings here
27 of 80reached par (169). Median 156.
Under par Par or more
Recent SA20 first innings average 165; games here have scored in line with their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 148, 2018–2022 173, 2023 onward 158.
100150169200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%6 of 32
150–16958%11 of 19
170–18959%10 of 17
190–20986%6 of 7
210+100%2 of 2
Weather: dry, like 5 Jan 2021
5 January 2021 at Newlands: 21 °C, humidity 70%, wind 21 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 9 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 20 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during play. At SA20 grounds, 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds. The match starts at Wednesday 20 January 2027, 5:30pm SAST.
During play: 20.5 °C on average, humidity 70%, wind 21 km/h gusting to 83. Humidity climbs from 56% to 89%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 2 Feb 2022
2 February 2022 at Newlands: 17 °C, humidity 100%, wind 15 km/h and 2.4 mm of rain during the hours of play. 9 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 20 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
This weather is wet, like 2 February 2022, with 2.4 mm of rain expected during play and the heaviest spell from 17:00 to 19:00, overlapping the first innings. Across SA20 grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Heat, wind and humidity have made no measurable difference to scoring at SA20 grounds.
During play: 17.1 °C on average, humidity 100%, wind 15 km/h gusting to 65.
Heaviest rain 17:00–19:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.2mm
150.1mm
160.3mm
171.1mm
181.1mm
190.2mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: warm, like 20 Jan 2018
20 January 2018 at Newlands: 24 °C, humidity 72%, wind 31 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 9 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 20 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are warm and dry, with no rain expected during play. Similar weather at SA20 grounds has shortened or washed out 4% of games, 19 of 447. Rain should not be a factor, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds. The humidity rises from 57% to 84% through the evening, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at SA20 grounds.
During play: 23.6 °C on average, humidity 72%, wind 31 km/h gusting to 106. Humidity climbs from 57% to 84%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
MI Cape Town XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rassie van der Dussen251 runs, SR 130 | +1.3 | – |
| 2 | Ryan Rickelton357 runs, SR 193 | +4.0 | – |
| 3 | Reeza Hendricks1 over302 runs, SR 136 | +1.2 | −0.4 |
| 4 | Nicolas Pooran475 runs, SR 200 | +4.1 | – |
| 5 | Tom Mooreskeeper215 runs, SR 135 | +0.7 | – |
| 6 | George Linde3 overs202 runs, SR 146; 12 wkts, econ 7.91 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Jason Smith102 runs, SR 126 | −0.2 | – |
| 8 | Corbin Bosch4 overs17 wkts, econ 7.35 | – | +3.1 |
| 9 | Rashid Khan4 overs13 wkts, econ 9.78 | – | +6.1 |
| 10 | Kagiso Rabada4 overs19 wkts, econ 9.48 | – | +2.6 |
| 11 | Trent Boult4 overs15 wkts, econ 7.97 | – | +2.2 |
Joburg Super Kings XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Faf du Plessis363 runs, SR 144 | +4.3 | – |
| 2 | Michael-Kyle Pepperkeeper220 runs, SR 135 | +2.3 | – |
| 3 | James Vince448 runs, SR 153 | +2.3 | – |
| 4 | M De Villiers151 runs, SR 116 | −1.8 | – |
| 5 | Wiaan Mulder3 overs199 runs, SR 156; 6 wkts, econ 10.03 | +0.2 | −2.6 |
| 6 | Dian Forrester1 over185 runs, SR 137; 9 wkts, econ 7.64 | +0.9 | −0.1 |
| 7 | Donavon Ferreira2 overs220 runs, SR 156; 4 wkts, econ 6.63 | +3.4 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Akeal Hosein3 overs5 wkts, econ 7.53 | – | +2.3 |
| 9 | Prenelan Subrayen3 overs12 wkts, econ 8.08 | – | +0.7 |
| 10 | Nandre Burger4 overs10 wkts, econ 10.18 | – | +1.0 |
| 11 | Richard Gleeson4 overs11 wkts, econ 10.79 | – | +2.4 |