Nicolas Pooran
475 runs, SR 200, 44 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.1 runs a game with the bat.
475 runs at a strike rate of 199.6 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 44 sixes. Rated 4.1 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
MI Cape Town
ParBatting+12.8Bowling+14.8Overall+27.6
Royals
ParBatting+6.1Bowling+9.1Overall+15.2
MI Cape Town bat first
First innings168
Royals short by32 runs
65%MI Cape Town win
35%Royals win
Royals bat first
First innings163
MI Cape Town chase in17.3 overs
65%MI Cape Town win
35%Royals win
First innings
168MI Cape Town bat first
163Royals bat first
169Par
167Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 18 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
56%
10 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 55% (42 of 77). SA20, CSA T20 Challenge, T20Is, Mzansi Super League and IPL.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at SA20 grounds were shortened or washed out (34 of 91).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Nicolas PooranBatting standout, MI Cape Town: 475 runs, SR 200 (last 10)
Rashid KhanBowling standout, MI Cape Town: 13 wkts, econ 9.78 (last 10)
RoyalsBatting weakness: +6.1 runs a game. Fortuin SR 122, Potgieter SR 96 in the last 10.
MI Cape Town favoured by about 12 runs at Newlands
MI Cape Town are favoured, with a win chance of 65% against Paarl Royals' 35%. They are also the stronger side on paper, about 12 runs clear, and the edge comes from both batting and bowling: roughly 7 runs with the bat and 6 with the ball. Their projected first-innings total of 168 sits just under the par score of 169, while Paarl Royals project 163.
Chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games here, and the par score of 169 is defended about half the time. The sharpest angle is the bowling gap: MI Cape Town's attack is rated about 6 runs better than Paarl Royals', and Paarl's batting is the weaker unit at about 6 runs above average. Recent league first innings here average 165 from 60 innings.
The case for the MI Cape Town
- Team strength of 27.6 runs above average, split 12.8 with the bat and 14.8 with the ball.
- Batting edge of 6.7 runs and bowling edge of 5.7 runs over Paarl Royals.
- Nicolas Pooran has 475 runs at a strike rate of 199.6 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standouts
Ryan Rickelton
357 runs, SR 193, 28 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.0 runs a game with the bat.
357 runs at a strike rate of 193 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 28 sixes. Rated 4 runs better than an average opener.
Bowling standout
Rashid Khan
13 wkts, econ 9.78 in the last 10. Rated +6.1 runs a game with the ball.
13 wickets at an economy of 9.78 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 6.1 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs.
The case for the Royals
- Sikandar Raza is rated 2 runs better than an average batter and 2.2 runs better than an average bowler.
- Mujeeb Ur Rahman is rated 3.5 runs better than an average bowler, with 15 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games here, and the par score of 169 is defended about half the time.
Bowling standouts
Sikandar Raza
4 wkts, econ 8.38 in the last 10. Rated +2.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2 runs better than an average batter and 2.2 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs. His last 10 T20 matches brought 141 runs and 4 wickets.
Mujeeb Ur Rahman
15 wkts, econ 8.68 in the last 10. Rated +3.5 runs a game with the ball.
15 wickets at an economy of 8.68 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 3.5 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs.
Batting weakness
Delano Potgieter
43 runs, SR 96, 1 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.2 runs a game with the bat.
43 runs at a strike rate of 95.6 in his last 10 T20 matches. Rated 1.2 runs worse than an average batter in his slot.
Newlands
Cape Town, South Africa · 23 SA20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2007
- Men's T20s
- 84
Every first innings here
27 of 80reached par (169). Median 156.
Under par Par or more
Recent SA20 first innings average 165; games here have scored in line with their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 148, 2018–2022 173, 2023 onward 158.
100150169200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%6 of 32
150–16958%11 of 19
170–18959%10 of 17
190–20986%6 of 7
210+100%2 of 2
Weather: dry, like 5 Jan 2021
5 January 2021 at Newlands: 21 °C, humidity 70%, wind 21 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 7 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during play. At SA20 grounds, 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds. The projected totals of 168 and 163 sit close to the par score of 169.
During play: 20.5 °C on average, humidity 70%, wind 21 km/h gusting to 83. Humidity climbs from 56% to 89%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 9 Jan 2022
9 January 2022 at Newlands: 20 °C, humidity 87%, wind 7 km/h and 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play. 7 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are wet, with 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play and the wettest spell from 18:00 to 19:00, overlapping the first innings. At SA20 grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring at SA20 grounds. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility.
During play: 19.6 °C on average, humidity 87%, wind 7 km/h gusting to 46. Humidity climbs from 79% to 92%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 18:00–19:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
181.9mm
190.0mm
200.6mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: warm, like 20 Jan 2018
20 January 2018 at Newlands: 24 °C, humidity 72%, wind 31 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 7 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. Only 4% of games in similar weather at SA20 grounds were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor at any stage, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds.
During play: 23.6 °C on average, humidity 72%, wind 31 km/h gusting to 106. Humidity climbs from 57% to 84%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
MI Cape Town XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rassie van der Dussen251 runs, SR 130 | +1.3 | – |
| 2 | Ryan Rickelton357 runs, SR 193 | +4.0 | – |
| 3 | Reeza Hendricks1 over302 runs, SR 136 | +1.2 | −0.4 |
| 4 | Nicolas Pooran475 runs, SR 200 | +4.1 | – |
| 5 | Tom Mooreskeeper215 runs, SR 135 | +0.7 | – |
| 6 | George Linde3 overs202 runs, SR 146; 12 wkts, econ 7.91 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Jason Smith102 runs, SR 126 | −0.2 | – |
| 8 | Corbin Bosch4 overs17 wkts, econ 7.35 | – | +3.1 |
| 9 | Rashid Khan4 overs13 wkts, econ 9.78 | – | +6.1 |
| 10 | Kagiso Rabada4 overs19 wkts, econ 9.48 | – | +2.6 |
| 11 | Trent Boult4 overs15 wkts, econ 7.97 | – | +2.2 |
Paarl Royals XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LG Pretoriuskeeper378 runs, SR 176 | +3.0 | – |
| 2 | Asa Tribe187 runs, SR 126 | +0.5 | – |
| 3 | Rubin Hermann178 runs, SR 138 | −0.5 | – |
| 4 | Daniel Lawrence231 runs, SR 151 | +2.4 | – |
| 5 | David Miller175 runs, SR 148 | +2.8 | – |
| 6 | Sikandar Raza4 overs141 runs, SR 103; 4 wkts, econ 8.38 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Delano Potgieter43 runs, SR 96 | −1.2 | – |
| 8 | Bjorn Fortuin4 overs16 wkts, econ 6.58 | – | +2.0 |
| 9 | N Mokoena4 overs11 wkts, econ 9.36 | – | −2.1 |
| 10 | Mujeeb Ur Rahman4 overs15 wkts, econ 8.68 | – | +3.5 |
| 11 | Ottniel Baartman4 overs20 wkts, econ 7.57 | – | +3.5 |