Nicolas Pooran
475 runs, SR 200, 44 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.1 runs a game with the bat.
475 runs at a strike rate of 199.6 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 44 sixes. He is rated 4.1 runs better than an average batter.
MI Cape Town
ParBatting+12.8Bowling+14.8Overall+27.6
Royals
ParBatting+6.1Bowling+9.1Overall+15.2
MI Cape Town bat first
First innings168
Royals short by32 runs
65%MI Cape Town win
35%Royals win
Royals bat first
First innings163
MI Cape Town chase in17.3 overs
65%MI Cape Town win
35%Royals win
First innings
168MI Cape Town bat first
163Royals bat first
169Par
167Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 18 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
56%
10 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 55% (42 of 77). SA20, CSA T20 Challenge, T20Is, Mzansi Super League and IPL.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at SA20 grounds were shortened or washed out (34 of 91).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Nicolas PooranBatting standout, MI Cape Town: 475 runs, SR 200 (last 10)
Rashid KhanBowling standout, MI Cape Town: 13 wkts, econ 9.78 (last 10)
RoyalsBatting weakness: +6.1 runs a game. Fortuin SR 122, Potgieter SR 96 in the last 10.
MI Cape Town favoured by about 12 runs on paper
MI Cape Town are favoured, with a 65% win chance. They are also the stronger side on paper by about 12 runs, built on a batting edge of 6.7 runs and a bowling edge of 5.7 runs. Their team strength of 27.6 runs above average compares with Paarl Royals' 15.2.
MI Cape Town project 168 batting first, Paarl Royals 163, against a par score of 169 that is defended about half the time. Chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games here, and the recent first-innings average here is 167 from 18 innings. The sharpest angle is MI Cape Town's twin batting and bowling edge, which is why they are favoured despite the chasing record.
The case for the MI Cape Town
- Batting strength of 12.8 runs above average, led by Pooran at 4.1 and Rickelton at 4 runs better than average.
- Bowling strength of 14.8 runs above average, with Rashid Khan 6.1 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
- Projected 168 batting first, one run below the par score of 169.
Batting standouts
Ryan Rickelton
357 runs, SR 193, 28 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.0 runs a game with the bat.
357 runs at a strike rate of 193 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 28 sixes. He is rated 4 runs better than an average opener.
Bowling standout
Rashid Khan
13 wkts, econ 9.78 in the last 10. Rated +6.1 runs a game with the ball.
13 wickets at an economy of 9.78 in his last 10 T20 matches. He is rated 6.1 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
The case for the Royals
- Batting strength of 6.1 runs above average, with Pretorius at 3 and Miller at 2.8 runs better than average.
- Bowling strength of 9.1 runs above average, with Mujeeb Ur Rahman and Baartman each 3.5 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
- Chasers have won 10 of the last 18 games here.
Batting standout
LG Pretorius
378 runs, SR 176, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.0 runs a game with the bat.
378 runs at a strike rate of 175.8 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 20 sixes. He is rated 3 runs better than an average batter.
Batting weakness
Delano Potgieter
43 runs, SR 96, 1 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.2 runs a game with the bat.
43 runs at a strike rate of 95.6 in his last 10 T20 matches. He is rated 1.2 runs worse than an average batter.
Bowling weakness
N Mokoena
11 wkts, econ 9.36 in the last 10. Rated −2.1 runs a game with the ball.
11 wickets at an economy of 9.36 in his last 10 T20 matches. He is rated 2.1 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, on limited batting data.
Newlands
Cape Town, South Africa · 23 SA20 matches here
- First men's T20
- 2007
- Men's T20s
- 84
Every first innings here
27 of 80reached par (169). Median 156.
Under par Par or more
Recent SA20 first innings average 165; games here have scored in line with their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 148, 2018–2022 173, 2023 onward 158.
100150169200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%6 of 32
150–16958%11 of 19
170–18959%10 of 17
190–20986%6 of 7
210+100%2 of 2
Weather: dry, like 5 Jan 2021
5 January 2021 at Newlands: 21 °C, humidity 70%, wind 21 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 7 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during play. At SA20 grounds, 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds. The projected totals of 168 and 163 sit close to the par score of 169.
During play: 20.5 °C on average, humidity 70%, wind 21 km/h gusting to 83. Humidity climbs from 56% to 89%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 9 Jan 2022
9 January 2022 at Newlands: 20 °C, humidity 87%, wind 7 km/h and 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play. 7 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are wet, with 2.5 mm of rain during the hours of play and the wettest spell from 18:00 to 19:00, overlapping the first innings. At SA20 grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring at SA20 grounds. Lost overs and a rain-rule finish are a real possibility.
During play: 19.6 °C on average, humidity 87%, wind 7 km/h gusting to 46. Humidity climbs from 79% to 92%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 18:00–19:00, mostly over the first innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
181.9mm
190.0mm
200.6mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: warm, like 20 Jan 2018
20 January 2018 at Newlands: 24 °C, humidity 72%, wind 31 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 7 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 22 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Newlands during these hours.
These conditions are dry, with no rain expected during the match. Only 4% of games in similar weather at SA20 grounds were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor at any stage, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds.
During play: 23.6 °C on average, humidity 72%, wind 31 km/h gusting to 106. Humidity climbs from 57% to 84%; at SA20 grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 17:30–21:05
130.0mm
140.0mm
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
MI Cape Town XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rassie van der Dussen251 runs, SR 130 | +1.3 | – |
| 2 | Ryan Rickelton357 runs, SR 193 | +4.0 | – |
| 3 | Reeza Hendricks1 over302 runs, SR 136 | +1.2 | −0.4 |
| 4 | Nicolas Pooran475 runs, SR 200 | +4.1 | – |
| 5 | Tom Mooreskeeper215 runs, SR 135 | +0.7 | – |
| 6 | George Linde3 overs202 runs, SR 146; 12 wkts, econ 7.91 | +1.2 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Jason Smith102 runs, SR 126 | −0.2 | – |
| 8 | Corbin Bosch4 overs17 wkts, econ 7.35 | – | +3.1 |
| 9 | Rashid Khan4 overs13 wkts, econ 9.78 | – | +6.1 |
| 10 | Kagiso Rabada4 overs19 wkts, econ 9.48 | – | +2.6 |
| 11 | Trent Boult4 overs15 wkts, econ 7.97 | – | +2.2 |
Paarl Royals XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LG Pretoriuskeeper378 runs, SR 176 | +3.0 | – |
| 2 | Asa Tribe187 runs, SR 126 | +0.5 | – |
| 3 | Rubin Hermann178 runs, SR 138 | −0.5 | – |
| 4 | Daniel Lawrence231 runs, SR 151 | +2.4 | – |
| 5 | David Miller175 runs, SR 148 | +2.8 | – |
| 6 | Sikandar Raza4 overs141 runs, SR 103; 4 wkts, econ 8.38 | +2.0 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Delano Potgieter43 runs, SR 96 | −1.2 | – |
| 8 | Bjorn Fortuin4 overs16 wkts, econ 6.58 | – | +2.0 |
| 9 | N Mokoena4 overs11 wkts, econ 9.36 | – | −2.1 |
| 10 | Mujeeb Ur Rahman4 overs15 wkts, econ 8.68 | – | +3.5 |
| 11 | Ottniel Baartman4 overs20 wkts, econ 7.57 | – | +3.5 |