David Warner
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.0 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4 runs better than an average batter. He has 515 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 15 sixes.
Thunder
ParBatting+5.2Bowling−1.2Overall+4.0
Sixers
ParBatting+11.8Bowling+2.2Overall+14.0
Thunder bat first
First innings173
Sixers chase in17.5 overs
67%Sixers win
33%Thunder win
Sixers bat first
First innings175
Thunder short by31 runs
61%Sixers win
39%Thunder win
First innings
173Thunder bat first
175Sixers bat first
173Par
171Recent average here
Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 9 innings since Sept 2023.
Chasing here
43%
3 of 7 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 50% (16 of 32). BBL only.
Rain risk
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
37%of games in wet weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened or washed out (37 of 101).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
LowMediumHigh
4%of games in dry weather at Australian BBL grounds were shortened (26 of 636).
The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.
Strengths and weaknesses
Steve SmithBatting standout, Sixers: 285 runs, SR 161 (last 10)
Chris GreenBowling standout, Thunder: 6 wkts, econ 7.72 (last 10)
ThunderBowling weakness: −1.2 runs a game. McAndrew econ 10.63 in the last 10.
Sydney Sixers favoured by about 10 runs in the derby
Sydney Sixers are favoured, with a win chance of 64% and a team strength about 10 runs better than Sydney Thunder. The edge is mostly from batting: the Sixers are 6.7 runs ahead with the bat and 3.3 runs ahead with the ball. Their projected first-innings score is 175, two runs above the par score of 173.
Thunder project 173, and the par score of 173 means the first-innings total is defended about half the time. Games here have been high-scoring recently: the recent average here is 171 from nine innings since 2023, and the all-time median is 161 from 36 innings. The sharpest angle is the toss: teams batting first have won four of the last seven here, while all-time it is 16-16.
The case for the Thunder
- David Warner is rated 4 runs better than an average batter and has 515 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Chris Green is rated 2.2 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs and has 6 wickets at an economy of 7.72 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Daniel Sams is rated 1.1 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs and has 15 wickets at an economy of 7.38 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Chris Green
6 wkts, econ 7.72 in the last 10. Rated +2.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.2 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs. He has 6 wickets at an economy of 7.72 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Nathan McAndrew
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler over his expected overs. He has 15 wickets but an economy of 10.63 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for the Sixers
- Steve Smith is rated 4.5 runs better than an average batter and has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Ben Dwarshuis is rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs and has 17 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
- The Sixers are 6.7 runs ahead with the bat and 3.3 runs ahead with the ball, giving them a team strength about 10 runs better than Thunder.
Batting standout
Steve Smith
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.5 runs better than an average batter. He has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 17 sixes.
Bowling standout
Ben Dwarshuis
17 wkts, econ 8.85 in the last 10. Rated +1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs. He has 17 wickets at an economy of 8.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Fergus O'Neill
7 wkts, econ 7.84 in the last 10. Rated −2.1 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.1 runs worse than an average bowler over his expected overs, on limited data. He has 7 wickets at an economy of 7.84 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Sydney Showground Stadium
Sydney, Australia · 41 BBL matches here
Built for the 1998 Royal Easter Show and used for baseball at the 2000 Olympics, the stadium has been the Thunder's home since 2015.
- Opened
- 1998
- Capacity
- 22,102 seats
- Home to
- Sydney Thunder (BBL)
Every first innings here
7 of 36reached par (173). Median 161.
Under par Par or more
Recent BBL first innings average 170; games here have scored in line with their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 159, 2018–2022 162, 2023 onward 161.
100150173200
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15020%2 of 10
150–16950%6 of 12
170–18983%5 of 6
190–20975%3 of 4
210+No games
Weather: dry, like 17 Dec 2023
17 December 2023 at Sydney Showground Stadium: 22 °C, humidity 74%, wind 12 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 32 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 19 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Sydney Showground Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are dry, like 17 December 2023, with no rain expected during the match. At Australian BBL grounds, only 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds. The humidity rises from 65% to 86% during the evening, but chasing success has not varied with humidity at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 21.9 °C on average, humidity 74%, wind 12 km/h gusting to 41. Humidity climbs from 65% to 86%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Weather: wet, like 15 Dec 2016
15 December 2016 at Sydney Showground Stadium: 18 °C, humidity 84%, wind 10 km/h and 2.3 mm of rain during the hours of play. 32 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 19 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Sydney Showground Stadium during these hours.
This weather is wet, like 15 December 2016, with 2.3 mm of rain during the hours of play and the wettest spell from 20:00 to 23:00 overlapping both innings. At Australian BBL grounds, 37% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Rain risk is medium. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to scoring at Australian BBL grounds.
During play: 18.0 °C on average, humidity 84%, wind 10 km/h gusting to 28. Humidity climbs from 78% to 88%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Heaviest rain 20:00–23:00, mostly over both innings. Runs figures assume 20 overs. If overs are lost, totals and par come down: check how your bookmaker settles runs markets in reduced matches.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.2mm
160.2mm
170.2mm
180.1mm
190.4mm
200.5mm
210.9mm
220.5mm
230.3mm
Weather: hot, like 24 Dec 2025
24 December 2025 at Sydney Showground Stadium: 26 °C, humidity 62%, wind 11 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 32 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 19 December in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Sydney Showground Stadium during these hours.
These conditions are hot and dry, with no rain expected during the match. Similar weather at Australian BBL grounds has seen only 4% of games shortened or washed out, so rain should not be a factor. Heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at Australian BBL grounds. The par score is 173, and the recent average here is 171.
During play: 26.0 °C on average, humidity 62%, wind 11 km/h gusting to 46. Humidity climbs from 49% to 84%; at Australian BBL grounds, chasing success hasn't varied with humidity.
Play 19:15–22:50
150.0mm
160.0mm
170.0mm
180.0mm
190.0mm
200.0mm
210.0mm
220.0mm
230.0mm
Sydney Thunder XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Gilkes232 runs, SR 156 | −0.3 | – |
| 2 | Sam Konstas160 runs, SR 106 | −2.4 | – |
| 3 | David Warner515 runs, SR 149 | +4.0 | – |
| 4 | Cameron Bancroft180 runs, SR 111 | −1.3 | – |
| 5 | Sam Billingskeeper273 runs, SR 155 | +1.9 | – |
| 6 | Daniel Sams4 overs50 runs, SR 106; 15 wkts, econ 7.38 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Chris Green3 overs142 runs, SR 150; 6 wkts, econ 7.72 | +1.7 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Nathan McAndrewunsigned, 4 overs15 wkts, econ 10.63 | – | −1.8 |
| 9 | Tanveer Sangha4 overs5 wkts, econ 8.61 | – | +2.0 |
| 10 | Ryan Hadley3 overs2 wkts, econ 12.79 | – | −3.6 |
| 11 | Aidan O'Connor2 overs1 wkts, econ 8.50 | – | −1.1 |
Sydney Sixers XI
| Batting position | Player and last 10 | Bat | Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Seifert301 runs, SR 135 | +3.1 | – |
| 2 | Steve Smith285 runs, SR 161 | +4.5 | – |
| 3 | Josh Philippekeeper267 runs, SR 153 | +1.4 | – |
| 4 | Ollie Davies1 over174 runs, SR 112; 0 wkts, econ 12.00 | +0.4 | −0.5 |
| 5 | Jordan Silk193 runs, SR 118 | +0.7 | – |
| 6 | Jack Edwards4 overs41 runs, SR 95; 10 wkts, econ 9.49 | −0.3 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Lachlan Shaw188 runs, SR 146 | +0.6 | – |
| 8 | Joel Davies3 overs12 wkts, econ 6.77 | – | +1.2 |
| 9 | Ben Dwarshuis4 overs17 wkts, econ 8.85 | – | +1.8 |
| 10 | Fergus O'Neill4 overs7 wkts, econ 7.84 | – | −2.1 |
| 11 | Sean Abbott4 overs6 wkts, econ 8.95 | – | +1.1 |