Oddsworth

Durban's Super Giants v Pretoria Capitals: Super Giants 72% to win

Super Giants 72%. Capitals 28%.

SA20|5, match 7Saturday 23 January 2027, 1:00pm SASTKingsmead, Durban

Super Giants

ParBatting+14.0Bowling+14.2Overall+28.2

Capitals

ParBatting+5.0Bowling+6.2Overall+11.3

Super Giants bat first

First innings176
Capitals short by38 runs
73%Super Giants win
27%Capitals win

Capitals bat first

First innings159
Super Giants chase in17.3 overs
72%Super Giants win
28%Capitals win

First innings

176Super Giants bat first
159Capitals bat first
171Par
172Recent average here

Par is the total defended about half the time. The recent average covers 20 innings since Sept 2023.

Chasing here

28%

5 of 18 won chasing over the last three years. All-time 43% (39 of 91). CSA T20 Challenge, SA20, IPL, T20Is and Mzansi Super League.

Rain risk

4%

of games in dry weather at SA20 grounds were shortened (19 of 447).

The match is beyond the forecast range, so pick a past evening at the ground. The win chance and players stay the same.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dewald BrevisBatting standout, Capitals: 315 runs, SR 150 (last 10)
Sunil NarineBowling standout, Super Giants: 14 wkts, econ 4.87 (last 10)
CapitalsBatting weakness: +5.0 runs a game. Parsons SR 124, Maharaj SR 93 in the last 10.

Durban's Super Giants favoured by about 17 runs at Kingsmead

Durban's Super Giants are favoured, with a win chance of 72% against Pretoria Capitals' 28%. They are also the stronger side on paper by about 17 runs, built on an 8.9-run batting edge and an 8-run bowling edge. Their team strength is 28.2 runs above average, against Pretoria's 11.3.

Durban's Super Giants are projected to make 176 batting first, Pretoria 159, with a par score of 171. Teams batting first have won 13 of the last 18 here, and chasers have won 39 of 91 all-time. The sharpest angle is the toss: the side batting first at Kingsmead has a clear recent advantage, and Durban's Super Giants already hold the stronger hand.

The case for the Super Giants

  • Stronger on paper by about 17 runs, with a batting edge of 8.9 runs and a bowling edge of 8 runs.
  • Projected to make 176 batting first, above the par score of 171.
  • Sunil Narine and Noor Ahmad are both rated well above average with the ball.

Batting standout

Heinrich Klaasen

274 runs, SR 152, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.7 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 4.7 runs better than an average middle-order batter. Made 274 runs at a strike rate of 152.2 in his last 10 T20 matches.

Bowling standouts

Sunil Narine

14 wkts, econ 4.87 in the last 10. Rated +8.9 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 8.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. Has 14 wickets at an economy of 4.87 in his last 10 T20 matches, and 175 runs at a strike rate of 160.6.

Noor Ahmad

12 wkts, econ 7.39 in the last 10. Rated +5.7 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 5.7 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. Took 12 wickets at an economy of 7.39 in his last 10 T20 matches.

The case for the Capitals

  • Dewald Brevis is rated 4.9 runs better than an average middle-order batter and made 315 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches.
  • Roston Chase is rated 2.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and took 15 wickets at an economy of 6.69 in his last 10 T20 matches.
  • Lungi Ngidi is rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.

Batting standout

Dewald Brevis

315 runs, SR 150, 22 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.9 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 4.9 runs better than an average middle-order batter. Made 315 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches.

Batting weakness

Bryce Parsons

236 runs, SR 124, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.5 runs a game with the bat.

Rated 1.5 runs worse than an average top-order batter. Made 236 runs at a strike rate of 124.2 in his last 10 T20 matches.

Bowling weakness

Lizaad Williams

17 wkts, econ 9.47 in the last 10. Rated −1.1 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 1.1 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. Took 17 wickets at an economy of 9.47 in his last 10 T20 matches.

Kingsmead

Durban, South Africa · 20 SA20 matches here

First men's T20
2007
Men's T20s
110

The ground's full record

Every first innings here

22 of 100

reached par (171). Median 159.

Under par Par or more

Recent SA20 first innings average 165; games here have scored about 2% above their leagues' averages. Medians by era: 2008–2017 158, 2018–2022 151, 2023 onward 170.

What total is safe?

First inningsDefended
Under 15032%10 of 31
150–16954%15 of 28
170–18976%13 of 17
190–20990%9 of 10
210+100%5 of 5

Weather: hot, like 13 Feb 2022

13 February 2022 at Kingsmead: 31 °C, humidity 64%, wind 18 km/h and 0 mm of rain during the hours of play. 51 of 430 evenings within three weeks of 23 January in the last 10 years had at least 1 mm of rain at Kingsmead during these hours.

These conditions are hot and dry, with no rain expected during the match. Across SA20 grounds, 4% of games in similar weather were shortened or washed out. Rain should not be a factor, and heat and wind have made no measurable difference to first-innings scoring at SA20 grounds. The start is 1:00pm SAST.

During play: 30.7 °C on average, humidity 64%, wind 18 km/h gusting to 46.

Durban's Super Giants XI

Batting positionPlayer and last 10BatBowl
1Kane Williamson258 runs, SR 130+0.9–
2Sunil Narine4 overs175 runs, SR 161; 14 wkts, econ 4.87+0.3+8.9
3Jos Buttlerkeeper356 runs, SR 172+4.1–
4Aiden Markram220 runs, SR 138+3.2–
5Heinrich Klaasen274 runs, SR 152+4.7–
6Evan Jones131 runs, SR 151+0.9–
7Eathan Bosch3 overs102 runs, SR 120; 8 wkts, econ 9.35−0.4−1.4
8David Wiese3 overs14 wkts, econ 7.35–+0.2
9Simon Harmer3 overs11 wkts, econ 6.91–+1.3
10Kwena Maphaka3 overs6 wkts, econ 7.69–−0.6
11Noor Ahmad4 overs12 wkts, econ 7.39–+5.7

Team record and squad

Pretoria Capitals XI

Batting positionPlayer and last 10BatBowl
1Shai Hopekeeper240 runs, SR 113+2.0–
2Connor Esterhuizen305 runs, SR 167−0.5–
3Bryce Parsons236 runs, SR 124−1.5–
4Wihan Lubbe140 runs, SR 112+0.3–
5Dewald Brevis315 runs, SR 150+4.9–
6Sherfane Rutherford258 runs, SR 135+2.0–
7Roston Chase4 overs120 runs, SR 117; 15 wkts, econ 6.69+0.3+2.9
8Keshav Maharaj4 overs10 wkts, econ 8.94–+1.0
9Lizaad Williams4 overs17 wkts, econ 9.47–−1.1
10Lungi Ngidi4 overs13 wkts, econ 7.66–+3.8
11Gideon Peters4 overs13 wkts, econ 8.56–−0.3

Team record and squad

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