Oddsworth

England v Sri Lanka, 3rd ODI: England 68%

England 68%. Sri Lanka 32%.

England v Sri Lanka ODI series 2026, 3rd ODISunday 27 September 2026, 10:30am BSTThe Oval, London

The sides

MeasureEnglandSri Lanka
Rating16436th of 1916457th of 19
XI caps564ODIs between the XI436ODIs between the XI
Top-seven average36.8ODI batting34.8ODI batting
Last 105–5ODIs since Sept 20255–5ODIs since Jul 2025

England, last 10

WWLWWLLLLW

  • 19 Jul 2026 England won by 27 runs v India
  • 16 Jul 2026 England won by 4 wickets v India
  • 14 Jul 2026 India won by 6 wickets v India
  • 27 Jan 2026 England won by 53 runs v Sri Lanka
  • 24 Jan 2026 England won by 5 wickets v Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka, last 10

WLLWLLLWWW

  • 3 Jun 2026 Sri Lanka won by 41 runs v West Indies
  • 27 Jan 2026 England won by 53 runs v England
  • 24 Jan 2026 England won by 5 wickets v England
  • 22 Jan 2026 Sri Lanka won by 19 runs v England
  • 16 Nov 2025 Pakistan won by 6 wickets v Pakistan

First innings

292England bat first
266Sri Lanka bat first
287Par
286Average here since 2019, 8 innings
368Highest here, England 2023

Batting first here

38%

15 of 39 won batting first. Since 2019, 63% (5 of 8).

Rain risk

24%Highest chance in any hour
0.0mm forecast in play
21°Average temperature
21km/h, strongest wind

Head to head

24England wins since 2002
28Sri Lanka wins since 2002
  • 24 Sept 2026 Sri Lanka won by 16 runs at Headingley
  • 22 Sept 2026 England won by 89 runs at Riverside Ground
  • 27 Jan 2026 England won by 53 runs at R Premadasa Stadium
  • 24 Jan 2026 England won by 5 wickets at R Premadasa Stadium

Can England settle it at the Oval without Buttler?

England were 254 for 4 at Headingley, needing 68 off 75 balls, when Jos Buttler pulled up with a hamstring injury on 65 off 43. By the time he limped back out in the 48th over, Rehan Ahmed, Gus Atkinson and Jamie Overton had gone, and Sri Lanka won by 16 runs to level the series at 1–1. Kusal Mendis's 121 off 100 balls had carried them to 321 for 6, the highest total of the series. We make England 68% to win the decider with the XI from Headingley. That has Buttler in it; with Jordan Cox keeping in his place, we make them 64%.

The Oval has been kinder to England in this fixture. They have won the last three ODIs against Sri Lanka here, most recently by eight wickets in 2021, although across the 27 ODIs between the sides in England since 2006 it is 12 wins each. Par is 287, and first innings here since 2019 have averaged 286. The forecast is overcast, about 20°C.

The Oval

London

ODIs here
48, since 2003
England here
Won 20, lost 11
Lowest completed
110, England 2022
Median first innings
249 all-time

Last 5 here

  • Jun 2025 West Indies 251/9 (40) v England 246/3 (29.4). England won by 7 wickets (DLS)
  • Sept 2023 England 368 (48.1) v New Zealand 187 (39). England won by 181 runs
  • Jul 2022 England 110 (25.2) v India 114/0 (18.4). India won by 10 wickets
  • Jul 2021 Sri Lanka 241/9 (50) v England 244/2 (43). England won by 8 wickets
  • Jun 2019 Australia 334/7 (50) v Sri Lanka 247 (45.5). Australia won by 87 runs

The case for England

  • Joe Root has 596 ODI runs at the Oval at an average of 54.2, and 1,425 against Sri Lanka at 67.9, against his career 50.9.
  • Jofra Archer has four wickets in his two ODIs here at 8.3 each, against his career average of 25.6.
  • Buttler has 263 ODI runs at the Oval at a strike rate of 127.7, above his career 115.9. Cox has 22 runs from his three ODIs.

The case for Sri Lanka

  • Kusal Mendis has 207 ODI runs at the Oval at an average of 51.8, against his career 35.4.
  • Dunith Wellalage took 3 for 49 at Headingley, including Duckett, Banton and Brook, and went into the series conceding 4.61 an over across his last ten ODIs, against his career 5.07.
  • Pavan Rathnayake has 162 runs in his three ODIs against England at an average of 54.0, above his career 43.6.

Weather, hour by hour

Play1018°1120°1221°1321°1422°1522°1622°1722°1821°1920°

10% chance of rain

England predicted XI

OrderPlayerODIsAvgSRWktsEcon
1Ben DuckettLast 10: 334 runs3642.6100––
2Tom BantonLast 7: 172 runs728.793––
3Joe RootLast 10: 625 runs, 2 wkts18650.987295.91
4Harry Brook (c)Last 10: 393 runs3937.0105––
5Jos Buttler †Last 10: 228 runs19739.5116––
6Will JacksLast 10: 172 runs, 5 wkts2632.3102106.24
7Rehan AhmedLast 9: 99 runs, 12 wkts914.181125.32
8Gus AtkinsonLast 10: 125 runs, 15 wkts1321.2138166.42
9Jamie OvertonLast 10: 208 runs, 12 wkts1226.7111135.65
10Jofra ArcherLast 10: 103 runs, 19 wkts3718.6111645.03
11Josh TongueLast 2: 0 runs, 1 wkts20.0016.20

Sri Lanka predicted XI

OrderPlayerODIsAvgSRWktsEcon
1Pathum NissankaLast 10: 486 runs6736.185––
2Kamindu MendisLast 10: 190 runs, 4 wkts2825.78066.52
3Kusal Mendis (c) †Last 10: 432 runs14135.487––
4Pavan RathnayakeLast 5: 218 runs543.692––
5Charith AsalankaLast 10: 299 runs, 3 wkts7339.790194.98
6Janith LiyanageLast 10: 311 runs, 1 wkts3244.78635.18
7Dunith WellalageLast 10: 122 runs, 11 wkts3118.581375.07
8Sachindu ColombageNo ODIs yet0––––
9Eshan MalingaLast 7: 14 runs, 4 wkts74.72646.03
10Asitha FernandoLast 10: 3 runs, 16 wkts281.822346.03
11Dilshan MadushankaLast 10: 3 runs, 17 wkts2412.048466.12

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