The Oddsworth Smell Test
The Smell Test
Tag @oddsworthsport on X or @oddsworth.net on Bluesky under a cricket claim, yours or anyone's, and it goes up against the ball-by-ball record: every figure from the matches, and a verdict to reply with.
Latest verdicts
Smells off
“Joe Root is the most overrated Test batter and was lucky to make 10,000 runs.”
Joe Root has 14,278 Test runs at 50.5 since his debut; of the men with 5,000 runs in that time only Steve Smith (57) and Kane Williamson (58.8) average more
Smells off
“England's batting line-up struggles against spin, and Jacob Bethell plays spin really well.”
Jacob Bethell averages 28.6 against spin in men's ODIs between Full Members since 2024, against 84.3 for Joe Root, best of England's seven batters with 150 balls of it
Half right
“Gautam Gambhir is a great India coach.”
India's men have won 8 of 18 decided Tests under Gambhir, 44%, against 67% under Dravid, yet his sides are seven from seven in knockout matches
Smells right
“Sanju Samson is more inconsistent than other players in T20Is.”
Samson's scores swing more around his average than any of 98 men's T20I batters with 40+ innings since 2015; 40% of his innings end under 10 against a 33% median.
Smells right
“Top-three batting in Tests is much harder; a mid-40s opener equals a middle-order bat averaging 50+”
The 24 men with 20 or more Test innings in both roles since December 2001 averaged 40.7 in the top three and 45.3 at Nos. 4-6.
Smells right
“Very few players with nine or fewer IPL appearances by the age of 33 go on to justify big price tags in the tournament.”
Two of 30 men with nine or fewer IPL games before turning 33 played 20 or more after it, 7%, against 30% of those with 10 to 39 games and 65% of those with 40 or more.
Half right
“Rishabh Pant is as important to India in Tests as Virat Kohli and Jasprit Bumrah.”
Since August 2018 Pant's batting average beats India's other Test keepers by 28%, against Bumrah's 46% over India's other quicks and Kohli's 2% over the top six.
Smells off
“Pat Cummins is a very poor decision maker at the toss.”
Cummins's Australia have won 14 of 19 decided Tests when he won the toss, 73.7%, against 50.7% for other toss winners since December 2021
Smells right
“Australia's batting problem in the ODI series against South Africa was spin.”
Australia averaged 27.8 against spin in the three ODIs, against 35 in their ODIs since 2023 and South Africa's 66.3 in the same games.
Half right
“Virat Kohli has become a home track bully in ODIs since the 2019 World Cup, with poor returns outside India.”
In men’s ODIs since the 2019 World Cup, excluding matches against Afghanistan, Kohli averages 47.6 outside India, above Shreyas Iyer’s 42 and KL Rahul’s 40.8.
Smells right
“Shubman Gill's ODI average of 65.12 at a strike rate of 103.45, after nearly 70 innings and more than 3,700 runs, is higher than anyone has ever managed at that stage.”
Leaving out games against Afghanistan for everyone, Gill averages 62.04 at a strike rate of 101.8 after 66 innings, ahead of Hashim Amla on 59.25 at 90.5.
Can't tell yet
“Guwahati is a much better batting ground than the average Indian venue in ODIs, and 350 is about the least a side needs there”
Barsapara's average full-length first-innings total in men's ODIs is 348, against 291 at other Indian grounds, across just two matches at the venue.
Smells right
“Given Sachin Tendulkar's 200 Tests and 463 ODIs, Virat Kohli would have 110 or more international hundreds”
At his career rates, Kohli would have 130 Test and ODI hundreds from Tendulkar’s 200 Tests and 463 ODIs, 20 clear of 110 and 30 more than Tendulkar made.
Smells right
“Kuldeep Yadav is indispensable to India's 2027 World Cup chances”
Kuldeep Yadav's 74 ODI wickets since 2023 lead India, who have won 75% of decided ODIs with him and 55% without.
Smells right
“Virat Kohli is the epitome of an all-format batter”
Kohli’s weakest-format batting average is 46.9, against 39.2 for nearest challenger Babar Azam among the qualifying men’s all-format batters.