The Oddsworth Smell Test
Claim
“Top-three batting in Tests is much harder; a mid-40s opener equals a middle-order bat averaging 50+”
Smells right
Data The 24 men with 20 or more Test innings in both roles since December 2001 averaged 40.7 in the top three and 45.3 at Nos. 4-6.
The first hour of a Test innings belongs to the new ball, and the averages at the top of the order show it. In men's Tests from December 2001 to September 2026, No. 1 averages 35, against 41.1 at No. 4.
No. 2 sits barely above the openers' mark, No. 3 a little higher, and No. 5 almost level with No. 4. The men who arrive after the shine has gone make more runs before they are out.
No. 6 muddies the water, though. It averages 34.5, below both opening slots, so the batting order on its own is a rough way to settle this.
The same men in both jobs
The cleaner test is the batters who have done both jobs often. Over that stretch, the men with plenty of innings up top and plenty in the middle order averaged clearly more once they dropped down.
Part of that may be the new ball, part a tiring attack by the time No. 5 walks out. Whatever the mix, the same batters kicked on lower down.
Where 45 meets 50
The best of the regulars point the same way. Among men with at least 40 innings in the top three, only 8% average 50 or more, against 15% of men with at least 40 innings at Nos. 4 to 6.
The top tenth of regular top-three batters starts at an average of 48.8. In the middle order, it takes 53.2 to reach the same company.
So an opener's average deserves a kinder reading when selectors weigh him against a middle-order rival. On these figures, the harder job at the top is real, and the claim holds.