Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the bat.
270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches and rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
The sides
| Measure | Heat | Strikers |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,119T20s between the XI | 1,181T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 24.1T20 batting | 25.6T20 batting |
When Heat bat
+0.05 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.07MiddleOvers 7–15+0.04DeathOvers 16–20+0.22
When Strikers bat
0.00 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.34MiddleOvers 7–150.00DeathOvers 16–20−0.43
Heat bat first
First innings176
Strikers chase in18.1 overs
53%Strikers win
47%Heat win
Strikers bat first
First innings173
Heat chase in18 overs
53%Heat win
47%Strikers win
Too close to call as Adelaide's bowling meets Brisbane's batting
This is too close to call, with the win chances split 50-50. Adelaide Strikers are the stronger side on paper, but only by about a run, and the edge is entirely in the bowling: their attack rates 4.3 runs better than Brisbane Heat's, while Brisbane's batting is 3.5 runs the better of the two. The projected first innings reflect that balance, with Brisbane making 176 and Adelaide 173 against a par score of 179.
Brisbane's top order has a clear problem against left-arm finger spin. Their batters average 24 against it since 2023, a third below their 36 against all bowling, while Full Member top sevens drop by only a tenth over the same years. Adelaide have Cameron Boyce, a leg-spinner, and Lloyd Pope in our XI, and Matt Kuhnemann offers Brisbane left-arm finger spin of their own, so the matchup cuts both ways.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 1506%1 of 17
150–16960%9 of 15
170–18950%11 of 22
190–20979%11 of 14
210+67%2 of 3
The case for Heat
- Batting rates 11.4 runs above average across the XI, the stronger of the two batting units by 3.5 runs.
- Matthew Renshaw and Max Bryant both rate positively, and Renshaw has 672 runs in 27 innings at this ground.
Batting standout
Bowling weakness
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated about a run worse than an average bowler over four overs, with 13 wickets at an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for Strikers
- Bowling rates 4 runs above average across the XI, the stronger attack by 4.3 runs.
- Hassan Ali and Cameron Boyce both rate positively, and Matt Short has 496 runs at a strike rate of 153 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Matt Short
496 runs, SR 153, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.6 runs a game with the bat.
496 runs at a strike rate of 153 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener with the bat.
Bowling standouts
Hassan Ali
24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the ball.
24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.3 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
Cameron Boyce
8 wkts, econ 8.85 in the last 10. Rated +2.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 8 wickets at 8.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting weakness
Lloyd Pope
7 runs, SR 30 in the last 10. Rated −0.9 runs a game with the bat.
Rated about a run worse than an average bowler over four overs, despite 14 wickets at 7.89 in his last 10 T20 matches.