Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. Took 13 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches but conceded at 9.85 an over.
The sides
| Measure | Heat | Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,119T20s between the XI | 2,222T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 24.1T20 batting | 23.6T20 batting |
When Heat bat
−0.12 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.19MiddleOvers 7–15−0.05DeathOvers 16–20−0.16
When Hurricanes bat
+0.47 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.59MiddleOvers 7–15+0.66DeathOvers 16–20+0.01
Heat bat first
First innings172
Hurricanes short by30 runs
51%Heat win
49%Hurricanes win
Hurricanes bat first
First innings181
Heat chase in18.1 overs
56%Heat win
44%Hurricanes win
Brisbane Heat favoured at home despite Hurricanes' stronger paper side
Brisbane Heat are favoured at 54%, though Hobart Hurricanes are the stronger side on paper by about 17 runs. The Hurricanes' edge is mostly bowling: they are 11.9 runs ahead with the ball and 5.3 with the bat, for a team strength of 28.4 against Heat's 11.1. The Heat's batting holds up at 11.4, but their bowling sits at -0.3, and that is where the gap opens. The win chances still lean Brisbane's way at the Gabba, where the par score is 179 and the Heat project 172 batting first against Hobart's 181.
Hobart's attack is the telling point. Nathan Ellis is rated 4.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, Adam Zampa 4.2 and Riley Meredith 2.4, giving the Hurricanes three bowlers well above average in the same XI. Brisbane's bowlers are close to level: Xavier Bartlett and Matt Kuhnemann at 1.0, Michael Neser at -0.8. That is the difference between the sides, and it is why the Hurricanes are the stronger team even if the venue tilts the call.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 1506%1 of 17
150–16960%9 of 15
170–18950%11 of 22
190–20979%11 of 14
210+67%2 of 3
The case for Heat
- Batting strength of 11.4 runs above average, led by Matthew Renshaw at 3.4 and Max Bryant at 2.3.
- Par score of 179 here, with the Heat projecting 172 batting first, and chasers have won 9 of the last 13 games at the Gabba.
- Home venue, where the Heat's win chance sits at 54% despite the paper gap.
Bowling weaknesses
Jack Wildermuth
10 wkts, econ 9.92 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler, on limited data, across his expected three overs. His last 10 T20 matches went at 9.92 an over.
The case for Hurricanes
- Bowling strength of 11.6 runs above average, with Ellis at 4.9, Zampa at 4.2 and Meredith at 2.4.
- Batting strength of 16.7 runs above average, with David at 5.5, Owen at 5.2 and Webster at 2.8.
- Team strength of 28.4 against the Heat's 11.1, a gap of about 17 runs.
Batting standouts
Tim David
235 runs, SR 145, 16 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5.5 runs better than an average batter, with 235 runs at a strike rate of 145 in his last 10 T20 matches. The top pick in the Hurricanes' middle order.
Mitch Owen
132 runs, SR 147, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5.2 runs better than an average opener. Scored 132 runs at a strike rate of 146.7 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 10 sixes.
Bowling standouts
Nathan Ellis
13 wkts, econ 7.56 in the last 10. Rated +4.9 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. Took 13 wickets at an economy of 7.56 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Adam Zampa
10 wkts, econ 8.77 in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. Took 10 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches, though at an economy of 8.77.