Mitch Marsh
476 runs, SR 174, 33 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.9 runs a game with the bat.
476 runs at a strike rate of 174 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener. He has 574 runs in 26 innings at this ground.
The sides
| Measure | Scorchers | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,126T20s between the XI | 1,119T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.0T20 batting | 24.1T20 batting |
When Scorchers bat
+0.08 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.41MiddleOvers 7–15−0.01DeathOvers 16–20−0.17
When Heat bat
+0.04 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.06MiddleOvers 7–15−0.04DeathOvers 16–20+0.16
Scorchers bat first
First innings171
Heat chase in17.5 overs
58%Heat win
42%Scorchers win
Heat bat first
First innings169
Scorchers short by30 runs
53%Heat win
47%Scorchers win
Brisbane Heat favoured, but Perth Scorchers are stronger on paper
Brisbane Heat are favoured at 55%, though Perth Scorchers are the stronger side on paper by about 1 run. The split is narrow: Perth's bowling edge is 2.6 runs, Brisbane's batting edge 1.7. Perth's team strength is 12.1 runs against Brisbane's 11.1, but the win chances weigh more than that gap, so the call goes to the Heat.
Mitch Marsh is the standout: 476 runs at a strike rate of 174 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener. Against a Brisbane attack where Michael Neser is rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler and Jack Wildermuth 1.8 worse, Marsh's recent numbers give Perth the top of the order.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15011%2 of 19
150–16964%9 of 14
170–18950%7 of 14
190–20967%2 of 3
210+100%5 of 5
The case for Scorchers
- Bowling edge of 2.6 runs, led by Calvin Harrison at 2.6 runs better than an average bowler and Jhye Richardson at 0.6 better.
- Batting strength of 9.7 runs, with Mitch Marsh rated 5.9 better than an average opener and Ashton Turner 3.3 better in his slot.
- Team strength of 12.1 runs against an average side, the higher of the two totals.
Batting standouts
Ashton Turner
277 runs, SR 180, 11 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the bat.
277 runs at a strike rate of 180 in his last 10 T20 matches, all in the T20 Blast, and rated 3.3 runs better than an average batter in his slot.
Bowling standout
Calvin Harrison
11 wkts, econ 8.92 in the last 10. Rated +2.6 runs a game with the ball.
11 wickets at an economy of 8.92 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 2.6 runs better than an average bowler over his expected overs.
The case for Heat
- Batting edge of 1.7 runs, with Matthew Renshaw rated 3.4 better than an average batter and Max Bryant 2.3 better.
- Tom Curran is rated 0.2 runs better than an average bowler and 1.7 better with the bat, a dual contribution.
- Xavier Bartlett is rated 1.0 run better than an average bowler and Matt Kuhnemann 1.0 better, giving the attack two positive ratings.
Batting standout
Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the bat.
270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches and rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter. He also offers 3 wickets at an economy of 7 in that window.
Bowling weaknesses
Jack Wildermuth
10 wkts, econ 9.92 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler over his expected overs, with an economy of 9.92 in his last 10 T20 matches. His batting rating is positive, but his bowling is the concern.
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, with an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches, though that window is eight months old.