Oddsworth

Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Renegades: Strikers 69% to win

Strikers 69%. Renegades 31%.

KFC BBL|16, match 26

Wednesday 6 January 2027, 6:45pm ACDT (7:15pm AEDT)Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Prediction locks 6th January, 07:45 UTCWhen we've said 60–70%, the favourite won 289 of 481

The sides

MeasureStrikersRenegades
XI caps1,181T20s between the XI880T20s between the XI
Top-seven average25.6T20 batting23.9T20 batting

When Strikers bat

+0.02 an over
PowerplayOvers 1–6+0.11MiddleOvers 7–15+0.06DeathOvers 16–20−0.17

When Renegades bat

−0.28 an over
PowerplayOvers 1–6+0.12MiddleOvers 7–15−0.53DeathOvers 16–20−0.28

Strikers bat first

First innings180
Renegades short by38 runs
66%Strikers win
34%Renegades win

Renegades bat first

First innings171
Strikers chase in17.5 overs
71%Strikers win
29%Renegades win

Adelaide Strikers favoured by about 9 runs, led by their bowling

Adelaide Strikers are favoured, with a win chance of 69% and a paper strength about 9 runs clear of Melbourne Renegades. The edge is mostly in the bowling: Adelaide's attack is rated 6 runs better than the Renegades', and their batting is 3.4 runs ahead too. Adelaide's XI totals 11.9 runs above average, the Renegades 2.5.

Melbourne Renegades' bowling is the weak link, rated 2 runs worse than an average attack. Will Sutherland is the main concern: 7 wickets at an economy of 9.15 in his last 10 T20 matches, and his bowling is rated 2 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.

What total is safe?

First inningsDefended
Under 15018%4 of 22
150–16956%15 of 27
170–18975%21 of 28
190–20971%5 of 7
210+88%7 of 8

The case for Strikers

  • Batting rated 7.9 runs above average, with Matt Short 3.6 runs better than an average opener and Mark Chapman 2.9 runs better than an average middle-order batter.
  • Bowling rated 4 runs above average, with Hassan Ali 3.3 runs better than an average bowler and Cameron Boyce 2 runs better.

Batting standout

Matt Short

Matt Short

496 runs, SR 153, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.6 runs a game with the bat.

496 runs at a strike rate of 153 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener with the bat.

Bowling standouts

Hassan Ali

Hassan Ali

24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the ball.

24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.3 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.

CB

Cameron Boyce

8 wkts, econ 8.85 in the last 10. Rated +2.0 runs a game with the ball.

Rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 8 wickets at an economy of 8.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.

The case for Renegades

  • Josh Brown is rated 3.1 runs better than an average opener and made 311 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches.
  • Jake Fraser-McGurk is rated 2.4 runs better than an average opener, and Jason Behrendorff is rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.

Batting standout

Josh Brown

Josh Brown

311 runs, SR 150, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.1 runs a game with the bat.

311 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.1 runs better than an average opener.

Bowling weaknesses

Will Sutherland

Will Sutherland

7 wkts, econ 9.15 in the last 10. Rated −2.0 runs a game with the ball.

7 wickets at an economy of 9.15 in his last 10 T20 matches, and his bowling is rated 2 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.

Tom Rogers

Tom Rogers

9 wkts, econ 10.32 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.

9 wickets at an economy of 10.32 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.

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