Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the bat.
270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches and rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter, the highest batting rating in the Heat XI.
The sides
| Measure | Heat | Scorchers |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,119T20s between the XI | 1,126T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 24.1T20 batting | 25.0T20 batting |
When Heat bat
+0.04 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.06MiddleOvers 7–15−0.04DeathOvers 16–20+0.16
When Scorchers bat
+0.08 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.41MiddleOvers 7–15−0.01DeathOvers 16–20−0.17
Heat bat first
First innings176
Scorchers short by30 runs
56%Heat win
44%Scorchers win
Scorchers bat first
First innings179
Heat chase in18.1 overs
62%Heat win
38%Scorchers win
Brisbane Heat favoured at home, though Perth Scorchers are stronger on paper
Brisbane Heat are favoured, with a 59% win chance, despite Perth Scorchers being the stronger side on paper by about a run. The split is narrow: Heat's batting rates 1.7 runs better, Scorchers' bowling 2.6 runs better, and the win chances lean to the home side. The projected first innings is 176 for Heat batting first and 179 for Scorchers, against a par score of 179.
Mitch Marsh is the standout: 476 runs at a strike rate of 174 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener. Against a Heat attack where Michael Neser is rated 0.8 runs worse than average and Jack Wildermuth 1.8 worse on limited bowling data, Marsh's recent output is the single biggest threat to the home side's edge.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 1506%1 of 17
150–16960%9 of 15
170–18950%11 of 22
190–20979%11 of 14
210+67%2 of 3
The case for Heat
- Batting rates 1.7 runs better than Perth Scorchers, led by Matthew Renshaw at 3.4 runs better than an average batter.
- Projected to score 176 batting first, and chasers have won 9 of the last 13 games here.
- Xavier Bartlett and Matt Kuhnemann are both rated 1 run better than an average bowler.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Xavier Bartlett
11 wkts, econ 7.82 in the last 10. Rated +1.0 runs a game with the ball.
11 wickets at an economy of 7.82 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 1 run better than an average bowler over four overs.
Bowling weaknesses
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, with an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches across BBL and T20 Blast.
Jack Wildermuth
10 wkts, econ 9.92 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler on limited data, with an economy of 9.92 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for Scorchers
- Bowling rates 2.6 runs better than Brisbane Heat, the bigger edge on paper.
- Mitch Marsh is rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener after 476 runs at a strike rate of 174 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Calvin Harrison is rated 2.6 runs better than an average bowler, with 11 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Mitch Marsh
476 runs, SR 174, 33 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.9 runs a game with the bat.
476 runs at a strike rate of 174 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener. The most damaging batter in either XI.
Bowling standout
Calvin Harrison
11 wkts, econ 8.92 in the last 10. Rated +2.6 runs a game with the ball.
11 wickets at an economy of 8.92 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 2.6 runs better than an average bowler over his expected three overs.