Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the bat.
Renshaw has 270 runs at a strike rate of 126.2 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter.
The sides
| Measure | Heat | Sixers |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,119T20s between the XI | 1,473T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 24.1T20 batting | 26.4T20 batting |
When Heat bat
−0.02 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.28MiddleOvers 7–15+0.04DeathOvers 16–20+0.17
When Sixers bat
+0.17 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.66MiddleOvers 7–15−0.07DeathOvers 16–20+0.02
Heat bat first
First innings178
Sixers chase in18.1 overs
58%Sixers win
42%Heat win
Sixers bat first
First innings179
Heat short by29 runs
53%Sixers win
47%Heat win
Sydney Sixers favoured by about 6 runs, led by their bowling
Sydney Sixers are favoured, with a 55% win chance, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 6 runs. The edge is mostly in the bowling: their attack rates 4.2 runs better than Brisbane Heat's, while the batting gap is 1.9 runs. The Sixers' XI totals 17.3 runs above average, the Heat's 11.1. The projected first-innings scores are close, 179 if the Sixers bat first and 178 if the Heat do, so the call rests on the Sixers' bowling being the more reliable unit.
Brisbane Heat's top order averages 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. The Sixers have a left-arm finger spinner in their XI: Joel Davies, who took 12 wickets at an economy of 6.77 in his last 10 T20 matches.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 1506%1 of 17
150–16960%9 of 15
170–18950%11 of 22
190–20979%11 of 14
210+67%2 of 3
The case for Heat
- Matthew Renshaw has 270 runs at a strike rate of 126.2 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter.
- Xavier Bartlett is rated 1.0 run better than an average bowler over four overs, with 11 wickets at an economy of 7.82 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Tom Curran is rated 0.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 13 wickets at an economy of 7.8 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Bowling weakness
Michael Neser
13 wkts, econ 9.85 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.
Neser is rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, with 13 wickets at an economy of 9.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for Sixers
- Their bowling rates 4.2 runs better than Brisbane Heat's, and their batting 1.9 runs better.
- Steve Smith has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 4.2 runs better than an average batter.
- Ben Dwarshuis took 17 wickets at an economy of 8.47 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 2.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
Batting standouts
Steve Smith
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the bat.
Smith has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 4.2 runs better than an average batter.
Tim Seifert
447 runs, SR 164, 21 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
Seifert has 447 runs at a strike rate of 163.7 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 3.8 runs better than an average opener.
Bowling standout
Ben Dwarshuis
17 wkts, econ 8.47 in the last 10. Rated +2.4 runs a game with the ball.
Dwarshuis took 17 wickets at an economy of 8.47 in his last 10 T20 matches and is rated 2.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.
Bowling weakness
Fergus O'Neill
7 wkts, econ 7.84 in the last 10. Rated −1.7 runs a game with the ball.
O'Neill is rated 1.7 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, with 7 wickets at an economy of 7.84 in his last 10 T20 matches, on limited data.