Matt Short
496 runs, SR 153, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.6 runs a game with the bat.
496 runs at a strike rate of 153 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener, with 40 innings and 1378 runs at this ground.
The sides
| Measure | Strikers | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,181T20s between the XI | 1,773T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.6T20 batting | 23.7T20 batting |
When Strikers bat
−0.02 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.22MiddleOvers 7–150.00DeathOvers 16–20−0.36
When Thunder bat
−0.21 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.19MiddleOvers 7–15−0.43DeathOvers 16–20+0.15
Strikers bat first
First innings178
Thunder short by31 runs
60%Strikers win
40%Thunder win
Thunder bat first
First innings178
Strikers chase in18.2 overs
66%Strikers win
34%Thunder win
Adelaide Strikers favoured by about 5 runs, mostly through bowling
Adelaide Strikers are favoured, with a win chance of 63% against Sydney Thunder's 37%. They are also the stronger side on paper, about 5 runs clear, and the edge is mostly with the ball: their bowling rates 3.9 runs better than Thunder's, while the batting gap is a single run. Both sides project 178 batting first, a touch under the 182 par score, so the call rests on Adelaide's attack rather than any batting separation.
Thunder's top order has a clear problem against left-arm finger spin. Their top seven average 28 against that bowling since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, while Full Member top sevens drop by only a tenth. Adelaide have Lloyd Pope in our XI, and his left-arm wrist spin is a different proposition, but the pattern against slow left-arm is the most telling number in the match.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15018%4 of 22
150–16956%15 of 27
170–18975%21 of 28
190–20971%5 of 7
210+88%7 of 8
The case for Strikers
- Bowling rates 3.9 runs better than Thunder's, led by Hassan Ali at 3.3 runs better than average and Cameron Boyce at 2.
- Matt Short has 1378 runs in 40 innings at this ground and is rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener.
- A team strength of 11.9 runs above average, the stronger of the two on paper.
Batting standout
Bowling standouts
Hassan Ali
24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the ball.
24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 3.3 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. Adelaide's attack leader.
Cameron Boyce
8 wkts, econ 8.85 in the last 10. Rated +2.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 111 BBL wickets at an economy of 7.54 and 23 innings at this ground.
The case for Thunder
- David Warner is rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter and made 515 runs at a strike rate of 149 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Chris Green and Daniel Sams both rate positively with bat and ball, giving Thunder two all-round routes into the match.
- Thunder's batting rates 6.9 runs above average, only a run behind Adelaide's.
Batting standout
David Warner
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
515 runs at a strike rate of 149 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter in his slot. Thunder's main source of runs.
Bowling weakness
Nathan McAndrew
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the ball.
15 wickets but an economy of 10.63 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 1.6 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. Thunder's weakest bowling link.