Mitch Marsh
476 runs, SR 174, 33 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.9 runs a game with the bat.
Marsh has 476 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 174.4, including 33 sixes. He is rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener.
The sides
| Measure | Scorchers | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,126T20s between the XI | 1,935T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.0T20 batting | 25.5T20 batting |
When Scorchers bat
−0.13 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.09MiddleOvers 7–15−0.12DeathOvers 16–20−0.22
When Stars bat
+0.40 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.27MiddleOvers 7–15+0.49DeathOvers 16–20+0.38
Scorchers bat first
First innings170
Stars chase in17.3 overs
57%Stars win
43%Scorchers win
Stars bat first
First innings175
Scorchers short by36 runs
52%Stars win
48%Scorchers win
Melbourne Stars favoured by about 13 runs, led by batting
Melbourne Stars are favoured, with a 54% win chance, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 13 runs. That edge is mostly batting: their projected XI is 9 runs better with the bat and 3.9 runs better with the ball than Perth Scorchers. The Stars' batting strength totals 18.7 runs above average against Perth's 9.7, and their bowling 6.2 against 2.3. Perth's attack is not weak, but the Stars have more room to score through the middle and at the death.
Perth's top order averages 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. The Stars have no left-arm finger spinner in their predicted XI, so the point is less about a direct matchup and more about Perth's relative comfort against other types. Their overall batting is solid, but the Stars' batting depth gives them the clearer path to a par score or better.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15011%2 of 19
150–16964%9 of 14
170–18950%7 of 14
190–20967%2 of 3
210+100%5 of 5
The case for Scorchers
- Mitch Marsh is rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener and has 476 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 174.4.
- Ashton Turner has 277 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 179.9, and is rated 3.3 runs better than an average middle-order batter.
- Jhye Richardson is rated 0.6 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Batting weakness
Sam Fanning
133 runs, SR 142, 6 sixes in the last 5. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the bat.
Fanning has limited data and is rated 1 run worse than an average opener. His last T20 matches were in January 2026, eight months ago.
Bowling weakness
Lance Morris
15 wkts, econ 8.49 in the last 10. Rated −0.7 runs a game with the ball.
Morris is rated 0.7 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, on limited data. His last T20 matches were in January 2025, 20 months ago.
The case for Stars
- Finn Allen is rated 6.5 runs better than an average top-order batter and has 226 runs in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Marcus Stoinis is rated 3.2 runs better with the bat and 1.3 runs better with the ball than average, with 259 runs and 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Peter Siddle is rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standouts
Finn Allen
226 runs, SR 150, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.5 runs a game with the bat.
Allen has 226 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 149.7, with 10 sixes. He is rated 6.5 runs better than an average top-order batter.
Marcus Stoinis
259 runs, SR 143, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the bat.
Stoinis has 259 runs and 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches. He is rated 3.2 runs better with the bat and 1.3 runs better with the ball than average.
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
Siddle took 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 8.59. He is rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs.