Matt Short
496 runs, SR 153, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.6 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener with the bat. He made 496 runs at a strike rate of 153.1 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The sides
| Measure | Strikers | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,181T20s between the XI | 1,935T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.6T20 batting | 25.5T20 batting |
When Strikers bat
−0.21 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.16MiddleOvers 7–15−0.10DeathOvers 16–20−0.48
When Stars bat
+0.41 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.14MiddleOvers 7–15+0.57DeathOvers 16–20+0.43
Strikers bat first
First innings174
Stars short by29 runs
51%Strikers win
49%Stars win
Stars bat first
First innings185
Strikers chase in18.2 overs
57%Strikers win
43%Stars win
Adelaide favoured at home despite Stars' stronger paper side
Adelaide Strikers are favoured, with a 54% win chance against Melbourne Stars' 46%, even though the Stars are the stronger side on paper by about 13 runs. That edge is almost all batting: the Stars' XI rates 10.8 runs better with the bat and 2.2 better with the ball, for a team strength of 25 against Adelaide's 11.9. The call leans on the venue and the matchups rather than the raw totals, and the projected scores reflect the batting gap: Adelaide 174 batting first, the Stars 185, around a par of 182.
Adelaide's top order average 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. The Stars have no left-arm finger spinner in our XI, so the point that matters is the pace: Hassan Ali and Peter Siddle are the two most telling bowlers on show, rated 3.3 and 3.8 runs better than average respectively.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15018%4 of 22
150–16956%15 of 27
170–18975%21 of 28
190–20971%5 of 7
210+88%7 of 8
The case for Strikers
- Matt Short is rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener and made 496 runs at a strike rate of 153.1 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Hassan Ali is rated 3.3 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 24 wickets at 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Cameron Boyce is rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and has 111 BBL wickets at 7.54.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Hassan Ali
24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.3 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He took 24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches, all in the T20 Blast.
Batting weakness
Lloyd Pope
7 runs, SR 30 in the last 10. Rated −0.9 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. He took 14 wickets at an economy of 7.89 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for Stars
- Finn Allen is rated 6.5 runs better than an average top-order batter, the largest batting impact in either XI.
- Peter Siddle is rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, with 16 wickets at 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Marcus Stoinis and Glenn Maxwell are both rated above average with the bat, at 3.2 and 3.7 runs respectively.
Batting standout
Finn Allen
226 runs, SR 150, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.5 runs better than an average top-order batter, the biggest batting impact in either XI. He made 226 runs at a strike rate of 149.7 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He took 16 wickets at an economy of 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting weakness
Tom Rogers
186 runs, SR 122, 5 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.2 runs worse than an average opener. He made 186 runs at a strike rate of 122.4 in his last 10 T20 matches.