Matt Short
496 runs, SR 153, 19 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.6 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener. He has 496 runs at a strike rate of 153 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 19 sixes.
The sides
| Measure | Strikers | Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,181T20s between the XI | 2,222T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.6T20 batting | 23.6T20 batting |
When Strikers bat
−0.22 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.19MiddleOvers 7–15−0.21DeathOvers 16–20−0.74
When Hurricanes bat
+0.42 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.55MiddleOvers 7–15+0.54DeathOvers 16–20+0.07
Strikers bat first
First innings172
Hurricanes short by33 runs
53%Strikers win
47%Hurricanes win
Hurricanes bat first
First innings184
Strikers chase in18.1 overs
58%Strikers win
42%Hurricanes win
Adelaide Strikers favoured at home despite Hurricanes' paper edge
Adelaide Strikers are favoured, with a 55% win chance against Hobart Hurricanes' 45%, even though the Hurricanes are stronger on paper by about 17 runs. The Hurricanes' edge comes from both batting and bowling: they are 8.8 runs better with the bat and 7.7 runs better with the ball. But the model weighs more than team strength, and the Strikers' home advantage at Adelaide Oval, where these conditions are dry and rain is unlikely, tips the balance. The projected first-innings scores are 172 for the Strikers and 184 for the Hurricanes, against a par score of 182.
The most telling point is the Hurricanes' batting against left-arm finger spin. Their top seven average 28 against that type since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. The Strikers have Lloyd Pope, a leg-spinner, and Cameron Boyce, a leg-spinner, but no left-arm finger spinner in our XI, so this weakness may not be exploited.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15018%4 of 22
150–16956%15 of 27
170–18975%21 of 28
190–20971%5 of 7
210+88%7 of 8
The case for Strikers
- Matt Short is rated 3.6 runs better than an average opener and has 496 runs at a strike rate of 153 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Hassan Ali is rated 3.3 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and has 24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Cameron Boyce is rated 2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and has 8 wickets at an economy of 8.85 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Hassan Ali
24 wkts, econ 8.03 in the last 10. Rated +3.3 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 3.3 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 24 wickets at an economy of 8.03 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting weakness
Lloyd Pope
7 runs, SR 30 in the last 10. Rated −0.9 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. He has 14 wickets at an economy of 7.89 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Ben Stokes
4 wkts, econ 8.92 in the last 10. Rated −0.9 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 0.9 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, on limited data. His last 10 T20 matches are 25 months old, and he took 4 wickets at an economy of 8.92.
The case for Hurricanes
- Tim David is rated 5.5 runs better than an average middle-order batter and has 235 runs at a strike rate of 145 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Nathan Ellis is rated 4.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and has 13 wickets at an economy of 7.56 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Adam Zampa is rated 4.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and has 10 wickets at an economy of 8.77 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Tim David
235 runs, SR 145, 16 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5.5 runs better than an average middle-order batter. He has 235 runs at a strike rate of 145 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 16 sixes.
Bowling standout
Nathan Ellis
13 wkts, econ 7.56 in the last 10. Rated +4.9 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 7.56 in his last 10 T20 matches.