Sixers 64%. Thunder 36%.
KFC BBL|16, match 36
Friday 15 January 2027, 7:15pm AEDTSydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
| Measure | Sixers | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,473T20s between the XI | 1,773T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 26.4T20 batting | 23.7T20 batting |
Sydney Sixers are favoured, with a 64% win chance, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 10 runs. That gap comes mostly from batting: their projected XI is 13.3 runs better than an average batting unit, against Sydney Thunder's 6.9. The bowling edge is smaller, 3.9 runs, with Sixers' attack 4.0 runs better than average and Thunder's 0.1. The projected first-innings scores reflect that: 183 for Sixers, 179 for Thunder, against a par score of 180.
Sydney Thunder's top order has a clear problem against left-arm finger spin. Their top seven have scored 28 runs per dismissal against that type since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, while Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth over the same years. Sydney Sixers have a left-arm finger spinner in their XI in Ben Dwarshuis, and his 2.4 bowling rating makes him a strong exponent of that style.
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the bat.
Smith has 285 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 161, and his batting rating of 4.2 runs better than an average opener makes him the standout at the top.
17 wkts, econ 8.47 in the last 10. Rated +2.4 runs a game with the ball.
Dwarshuis has 17 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 8.47, and his bowling rating of 2.4 runs better than an average bowler underlines his threat with left-arm finger spin.
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
Warner has 515 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 149.3, and his batting rating of 3.8 runs better than an average top-order batter gives Thunder a strong anchor.
6 wkts, econ 7.72 in the last 10. Rated +2.5 runs a game with the ball.
Green has 6 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.72, and his bowling rating of 2.5 runs better than an average bowler makes him Thunder's key weapon.
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the ball.
McAndrew has 15 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches but at an economy of 10.63, and his bowling rating of 1.6 runs worse than an average bowler makes him a weak link.