How far outside the ordinary is four wickets for 706 runs?

ESPNcricinfo asks whether West Indies can do anything about India's batting when New Chandigarh hosts its first ODI on Saturday, and the scale of the problem is four wickets taken while 706 runs went past in the first two matches of the series. India replied to 295 for 7 with 300 for 2 in 41.4 overs at the Greenfield International Stadium, then to 405 for 7 with 406 for 2 in 43.3 overs at the Barsapara Cricket Stadium, winning both by eight wickets. In men's ODIs over the last two years a wicket has cost 31.15 runs, so an attack that has bowled through two full Indian innings for four of them is far outside anything the format normally produces.

Measured against the going rate

A top-seven batter in men's ODIs over the last two years averages 32.81 at a strike rate of 84.8. India's batters were out twice a match and scored quickly enough to knock off a target above 400 with more than six overs to spare, so West Indies were neither taking wickets nor slowing anyone down, and an attack that does neither cannot defend any total.

The harsher reading is that West Indies' own batting has done its job. Totals of 295 for 7 and 405 for 7 batting first should have made two contests, and West Indies lost the second by eight wickets.

The gap was there before a ball was bowled

None of this has moved our forecast much, because the gap was already enormous. Our ratings have India as the best of the ten men's ODI sides, with a 72% chance of beating an average side, and West Indies eighth at 41%. That is the distance between a side that expects to beat anyone and one that loses to ordinary opposition more often than it wins. Two matches of bowling this poor have done little beyond confirming it. What those matches do show is an attack with no answer to India's top order once it was set, and that is the problem West Indies carry to New Chandigarh.

A side that was beatable in July

The curious part is that India arrived with five defeats in their last ten ODIs, having lost to England at home in July and to New Zealand in January. West Indies, meanwhile, beat New Zealand twice in July, once chasing comfortably and once scrambling home with two wickets left. Those results say this series need not have been a procession, yet our forecast gave India 86% before each of the first two games and gives them 87% on Saturday. If 405 was not enough, the only question left is whether this attack can make India bat for 50 overs.