Is a dead rubber the right place to blood Anshul Kamboj?

The talk since Anshul Kamboj's call-up has been whether India should hand him a debut in Saturday's third ODI at the Maharaja Yadavindra Singh International Cricket Stadium, or stick with the attack that has just won twice. Our forecast settles the risk side of that question. India have an 87% chance of winning, a shade above the 86% they carried into each of the first two ODIs, and they lead the series 2-0 with one match to play. A new bowler could hardly be offered a softer landing.

The attack has a vacancy

Two wins by eight wickets flatter the bowling. West Indies made 295 at the Greenfield International Stadium and then 405 at the Barsapara Cricket Stadium, and India chased both down with overs in hand and only two wickets lost each time. The batting has carried both games.

Across men's ODIs over the last two years an average attack concedes 5.26 an over and takes its wickets at 31.15 apiece. An attack that lets a side post 405 is a long way off both marks, however comfortably the chase ends. That is the hole Kamboj would be filling.

India can afford the experiment

Our ratings have India as the best men's ODI side in the world, with a 72% chance of beating an average Full Member side on a neutral ground. Against this opponent the record is more lopsided still: 40 wins in 62 ODIs against West Indies since July 2005. A side in that position gains nothing from watching an established bowler take two more cheap wickets, and learns a good deal from seeing a new one handle a line-up that has just made 405.

The one argument against

The case for caution is India's recent habit of following a win with defeats. In January they beat New Zealand in the opening ODI and lost the next two, and in July they did exactly the same against England. The selectors will not want that pattern repeated.

The difference this time is that India already lead 2-0, so a defeat on Saturday costs nothing beyond the scoreline. The question the match should answer is whether Kamboj can hold an economy near 5.26 against batters who have just scored at will, and there is no cheaper place to find out. Pick him.