An Oddsworth Opinion
Is running between the wickets really what holds Bangladesh back?
Bangladesh beat Australia by 86 runs in June and by five wickets two days later, then lost the first two one-day internationals in Zimbabwe a month on. The jibe that their running between the wickets is still worse than a club side's has outlasted both the wins and the defeats, and the figure that takes in everything is bleaker than the jibe. Our ratings give Bangladesh a 38% chance of beating an average Full Member side on a neutral ground, the lowest of the ten sides in our men's ODI ratings and one place below the ninth the ICC rankings allow them.
What the last ten ODIs say
Taking the last two ODIs in New Zealand in April and then the two wins over Australia that followed is the form of a side that belongs in the top half of any list, and losing the first two in Zimbabwe a month later, before a seven-wicket win in the third, is the form of one that does not. That swing inside three months is the record of a side with no floor, and a side with no floor finishes at the bottom of a ten-team list whatever happens between the wickets.
- WPakistanWon by 11 runs v Pakistan, 2026-03-15
- LNew ZealandLost by 26 runs v New Zealand, 2026-04-17
- WNew ZealandWon by 6 wickets v New Zealand, 2026-04-20
- WNew ZealandWon by 55 runs v New Zealand, 2026-04-23
- WAustraliaWon by 86 runs v Australia, 2026-06-09
- WAustraliaWon by 5 wickets v Australia, 2026-06-11
- LAustraliaLost by 1 wickets v Australia, 2026-06-14
- LZimbabweLost by 25 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-06
- LZimbabweLost by 13 runs v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-09
- WZimbabweWon by 7 wickets v Zimbabwe, 2026-07-11
Can they beat Afghanistan in Sharjah?
Wednesday's third match of the tri-series brings Afghanistan, whom Bangladesh have played 22 times in ODIs since March 2014 and beaten exactly as often as they have lost, 11 wins apiece. Twelve years of parity count for little in our forecast, which gives Afghanistan a 78% chance and Bangladesh 22%, a gap far wider than any complaint about calling and turning would open between two sides with a level history. The history is level; the rating says Bangladesh no longer are.
Wednesday 21 October 2026, 4:00pm GMT+4
The charge the figures do support
A run-out is the one dismissal a fan can referee from the sofa, which is why the running carries the blame, but the record offers a heavier charge. Bangladesh are the weakest of the ten Full Member sides in our men's ODI ratings and heavy outsiders against a team they have matched win for win for twelve years, and a side that beats Australia twice in a week and loses to Zimbabwe twice the following month needs fixing from the top of the order to the tail. Bangladesh's problem is the whole side, and the whole side is rated last.