Steve Smith
285 runs, SR 161, 17 sixes in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 4.2 runs better than an average opener, he has 285 runs at a strike rate of 161 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 17 sixes.
The sides
| Measure | Sixers | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,473T20s between the XI | 1,119T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 26.4T20 batting | 24.1T20 batting |
When Sixers bat
+0.17 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.66MiddleOvers 7–15−0.07DeathOvers 16–20+0.02
When Heat bat
−0.02 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.28MiddleOvers 7–15+0.04DeathOvers 16–20+0.17
Sixers bat first
First innings181
Heat short by29 runs
57%Sixers win
43%Heat win
Heat bat first
First innings179
Sixers chase in18.1 overs
63%Sixers win
38%Heat win
Sydney Sixers favoured by about 6 runs on bowling strength
Sydney Sixers are favoured, with a 60% win chance, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 6 runs. Most of that gap comes from the bowling: their attack rates 4.2 runs better than Brisbane Heat's, while the batting edge is a narrower 1.9 runs. The projected totals sit close together — 181 if the Sixers bat first, 179 if the Heat do — against a par score of 180, so the difference is in what each side gives back with the ball rather than in the runs they score.
Brisbane Heat's top order averages 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. Sydney Sixers have no left-arm finger spinner in our XI, so that figure is a warning about a type of bowling they do not field here.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15014%3 of 21
150–16943%10 of 23
170–18964%9 of 14
190–20973%8 of 11
210+100%3 of 3
The case for Sixers
- Their bowling rates 4.2 runs better than Brisbane Heat's, with Dwarshuis, Abbott and Joel Davies all rated above average.
- Steve Smith and Tim Seifert give them two openers rated well above average, worth 4.2 and 3.8 runs respectively.
Batting standouts
Tim Seifert
447 runs, SR 164, 21 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average opener, he has 447 runs at a strike rate of 163.7 in his last 10 T20 matches, with 21 sixes.
Bowling standout
Ben Dwarshuis
17 wkts, econ 8.47 in the last 10. Rated +2.4 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 2.4 runs better than an average bowler over four overs, he has 17 wickets at an economy of 8.47 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Fergus O'Neill
7 wkts, econ 7.84 in the last 10. Rated −1.7 runs a game with the ball.
Rated about 2 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs, on limited data, he has seven wickets at an economy of 7.84 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for Heat
- Matthew Renshaw and Max Bryant are both rated above average with the bat, at 3.4 and 2.3 runs.
- Xavier Bartlett and Matt Kuhnemann are rated a run better than an average bowler over their expected overs.
Batting standout
Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter in his slot, he has 270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches, with nine sixes.
Bowling weakness
Jack Wildermuth
10 wkts, econ 9.92 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler on limited data, he has 10 wickets at an economy of 9.92 in his last 10 T20 matches.