Thunder 59%. Renegades 41%.
KFC BBL|16, match 14
Sunday 27 December 2026, 7:15pm AEDTSydney Showground Stadium, Sydney
| Measure | Thunder | Renegades |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,773T20s between the XI | 880T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 23.7T20 batting | 23.9T20 batting |
Sydney Thunder are favoured at 59%, and the case is built on a paper edge of about 5 runs. Their XI rates 7 runs better than an average side with the bat and 0.1 with the ball, against Melbourne Renegades' 4.5 batting and -2 bowling. The batting gap is 2.4 runs and the bowling gap 2.1, so the edge comes from both departments rather than one. Projected totals point the same way: Thunder 175 batting first, Renegades 167, around a par of 174.
Renegades' bowling is the weak unit, rated 2 runs worse than average, and Will Sutherland carries much of that: 7 wickets at an economy of 9.15 in his last 10 T20 matches, and a bowling rating 2 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. Against a Thunder top order with David Warner at 3.8 runs better than an average batter, that is where the game tilts.
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
515 runs at a strike rate of 149.3 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter. He has 323 runs in nine innings at this ground.
6 wkts, econ 7.72 in the last 10. Rated +2.5 runs a game with the ball.
6 wickets at an economy of 7.72 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler. He also made 142 runs at 149.5 in that window.
15 wkts, econ 7.38 in the last 10. Rated +1.3 runs a game with the ball.
15 wickets at an economy of 7.38 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 1.3 runs better than an average bowler, with a batting rating of 1.2 runs better than average.
311 runs, SR 150, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.1 runs a game with the bat.
311 runs at a strike rate of 150.2 with 20 sixes in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.1 runs better than an average opener.
7 wkts, econ 9.15 in the last 10. Rated −2.0 runs a game with the ball.
7 wickets at an economy of 9.15 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 2 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs. His batting rating is 1.5 runs better than average.
9 wkts, econ 10.32 in the last 10. Rated −0.8 runs a game with the ball.
9 wickets at an economy of 10.32 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 0.8 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.