Nathan Ellis
13 wkts, econ 7.56 in the last 10. Rated +4.9 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.9 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 13 wickets at an economy of 7.56 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The sides
| Measure | Hurricanes | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 2,222T20s between the XI | 1,935T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 23.6T20 batting | 25.5T20 batting |
When Hurricanes bat
+0.26 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.09MiddleOvers 7–15+0.55DeathOvers 16–20−0.04
When Stars bat
+0.24 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.02MiddleOvers 7–15+0.48DeathOvers 16–20+0.06
Hurricanes bat first
First innings177
Stars chase in17.5 overs
50%Stars win
50%Hurricanes win
Stars bat first
First innings175
Hurricanes chase in17.3 overs
56%Hurricanes win
44%Stars win
Too close to call, with Hobart marginally stronger on paper
This one is too close to call: Hobart Hurricanes win 53% of simulations, Melbourne Stars 47%. Hobart are the stronger side on paper, but only by about 3 runs, and that edge comes entirely from bowling, which outweighs their weaker batting. Melbourne have the better batting unit by about 2 runs, while Hobart's bowlers are rated about 5 runs better than Melbourne's.
Melbourne's top order averages 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. Hobart have Rishad Hossain, a left-arm finger spinner, in our XI, and his 10 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 9.64 give them a bowler of exactly that type.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%3 of 16
150–16948%13 of 27
170–18964%18 of 28
190–20967%4 of 6
210+100%4 of 4
The case for Hurricanes
- Bowling is the stronger unit, rated about 5 runs better than Melbourne's, with Ellis, Zampa and Meredith all rated above average.
- Nathan Ellis has 13 wickets at an economy of 7.56 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standouts
Adam Zampa
10 wkts, econ 8.77 in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.2 runs better than an average bowler over four overs. He has 10 wickets at an economy of 8.77 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Billy Stanlake
10 wkts, econ 8.30 in the last 10. Rated −1.0 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1 run worse than an average bowler over three overs. His last 10 T20 matches came between December 2024 and January 2026, and he took 10 wickets at an economy of 8.3.
The case for Stars
- Batting is the stronger unit, rated about 2 runs better than Hobart's, with Allen, Stoinis and Maxwell all rated above average.
- Finn Allen has 226 runs at a strike rate of 149.7 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standouts
Finn Allen
226 runs, SR 150, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.5 runs better than an average batter, the highest in either XI. He has 226 runs at a strike rate of 149.7 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Marcus Stoinis
259 runs, SR 143, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.2 runs better than an average batter and 1.3 runs better than an average bowler. He has 259 runs at a strike rate of 143.1 and 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting weakness
Tom Rogers
186 runs, SR 122, 5 sixes in the last 10. Rated −1.2 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 1.2 runs worse than an average opener. He has 186 runs at a strike rate of 122.4 in his last 10 T20 matches.