David Warner
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
515 runs at a strike rate of 149 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.8 runs better than an average top-order batter.
The sides
| Measure | Thunder | Scorchers |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,773T20s between the XI | 1,126T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 23.7T20 batting | 25.0T20 batting |
When Thunder bat
−0.22 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.06MiddleOvers 7–15−0.51DeathOvers 16–20+0.10
When Scorchers bat
+0.05 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.29MiddleOvers 7–15−0.01DeathOvers 16–20−0.11
Thunder bat first
First innings170
Scorchers chase in17.4 overs
53%Scorchers win
47%Thunder win
Scorchers bat first
First innings176
Thunder chase in18.1 overs
53%Thunder win
47%Scorchers win
Too close to call, with Perth Scorchers marginally stronger on paper
This one is too close to call, with the win chances split evenly. Perth Scorchers are the stronger side on paper, about 5 runs clear across the XI, built on both batting and bowling: their batters rate 2.8 runs better and their bowlers 2.2 runs better. Sydney Thunder's batting carries a positive rating but their bowling unit sits barely above average, so the paper edge is Perth's.
Sydney Thunder's top order averages 20 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 23 against all bowling, where Full Member top orders drop by a tenth. Perth Scorchers have Ashton Agar, a left-arm finger spinner, in our XI, and that matchup is the most telling point of the game.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15020%2 of 10
150–16950%6 of 12
170–18983%5 of 6
190–20975%3 of 4
210+No games
The case for Thunder
- David Warner is rated 3.8 runs better than an average top-order batter after 515 runs at a strike rate of 149 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Chris Green is rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler over three overs, with 6 wickets at 7.72 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- The batting unit rates 6.9 runs better than average, giving them a positive base to defend or chase.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Chris Green
6 wkts, econ 7.72 in the last 10. Rated +2.5 runs a game with the ball.
142 runs at a strike rate of 150 and 6 wickets at 7.72 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler over three overs.
Bowling weaknesses
Nathan McAndrew
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the ball.
15 wickets but an economy of 10.63 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 1.6 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.
Ryan Hadley
2 wkts, econ 12.79 in the last 4. Rated −3.5 runs a game with the ball.
2 wickets at an economy of 12.79 in his last four T20 matches, and rated 3.5 runs worse than an average bowler over three overs on limited data.
The case for Scorchers
- Mitch Marsh is rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener after 476 runs at a strike rate of 174 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Calvin Harrison is rated 2.6 runs better than an average bowler over three overs, with 11 wickets at 8.92 in his last 10 T20 matches.
- The XI rates about 5 runs stronger than Sydney Thunder's on paper, with both the batting and bowling units ahead.
Batting standout
Mitch Marsh
476 runs, SR 174, 33 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.9 runs a game with the bat.
476 runs at a strike rate of 174 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 5.9 runs better than an average opener.
Bowling standout
Calvin Harrison
11 wkts, econ 8.92 in the last 10. Rated +2.6 runs a game with the ball.
11 wickets at an economy of 8.92 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 2.6 runs better than an average bowler over three overs.