Finn Allen
226 runs, SR 150, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +6.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 6.5 runs better than an average batter, Allen has 226 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches, including 10 sixes.
The sides
| Measure | Stars | Renegades |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,935T20s between the XI | 880T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 25.5T20 batting | 23.9T20 batting |
When Stars bat
+0.48 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.06MiddleOvers 7–15+0.75DeathOvers 16–20+0.63
When Renegades bat
−0.44 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.35MiddleOvers 7–15−0.52DeathOvers 16–20−0.40
Stars bat first
First innings180
Renegades short by44 runs
62%Stars win
38%Renegades win
Renegades bat first
First innings161
Stars chase in17 overs
67%Stars win
33%Renegades win
Stars favoured by 22 runs on paper, with batting the edge
Melbourne Stars are favoured for this derby, with a win chance of 65% and a team strength about 22 runs clear of Melbourne Renegades. The batting is the main driver: Stars' batters are rated 14.2 runs better than Renegades' and their bowlers 8.2 runs better, giving them a total of 25 runs above average against Renegades' 2.5. The projected first-innings scores reflect that gap: Stars 180, Renegades 161, against a par score of 173.
Renegades' top order averages 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. Stars have no left-arm finger spinner in their predicted XI, but Jason Behrendorff, a left-arm pace bowler, is in Renegades' XI and could exploit that weakness.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%8 of 42
150–16925%5 of 20
170–18967%14 of 21
190–209100%3 of 3
210+100%3 of 3
The case for Stars
- Batting strength: rated 18.7 runs above average, 14.2 runs better than Renegades' batting.
- Bowling strength: rated 6.2 runs above average, 8.2 runs better than Renegades' bowling.
- Finn Allen and Peter Siddle are in strong form: Allen has 226 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches, Siddle 16 wickets at an economy of 8.59.
Batting standouts
Marcus Stoinis
259 runs, SR 143, 10 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.2 runs a game with the bat.
Stoinis is rated 3.2 runs better with the bat and 1.3 with the ball. He has 259 runs and 16 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling standout
Peter Siddle
16 wkts, econ 8.59 in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the ball.
Siddle is rated 3.8 runs better than an average bowler. He has 16 wickets at an economy of 8.59 in his last 10 T20 matches.
The case for Renegades
- Josh Brown is in form: 311 runs at a strike rate of 150 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 3.1 runs better than an average opener.
- Jason Behrendorff is rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler and offers a left-arm pace option.
Bowling standout
Jason Behrendorff
6 wkts, econ 9.28 in the last 10. Rated +1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Behrendorff is rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler. He has 6 wickets at an economy of 9.28 in his last 10 T20 matches.
Bowling weakness
Will Sutherland
7 wkts, econ 9.15 in the last 10. Rated −2.0 runs a game with the ball.
Sutherland is rated 2 runs worse than an average bowler. He has 7 wickets at an economy of 9.15 in his last 10 T20 matches.