Tim David
235 runs, SR 145, 16 sixes in the last 10. Rated +5.5 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 5.5 runs better than an average batter. His last 10 T20 matches brought 235 runs at a strike rate of 145.1, with 16 sixes.
The sides
| Measure | Hurricanes | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 2,222T20s between the XI | 1,773T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 23.6T20 batting | 23.7T20 batting |
When Hurricanes bat
+0.45 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.47MiddleOvers 7–15+0.66DeathOvers 16–20+0.07
When Thunder bat
−0.38 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.31MiddleOvers 7–15−0.52DeathOvers 16–20−0.23
Hurricanes bat first
First innings182
Thunder short by40 runs
58%Hurricanes win
42%Thunder win
Thunder bat first
First innings168
Hurricanes chase in17.3 overs
63%Hurricanes win
37%Thunder win
Hobart Hurricanes favoured by about 21 runs on paper
Hobart Hurricanes are favoured, with a win chance of 61%, and they are stronger on paper by 21.3 runs. That edge comes from both batting and bowling: their projected XI totals 28.4 runs above average, against Sydney Thunder's 7.0. The batting edge is 9.8 runs and the bowling edge 11.6. The projected first-innings scores are 182 for Hobart and 168 for Thunder, against a par score of 176.
Thunder's top seven average 19 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, well below their 24 against all bowling, while Hobart have no left-arm finger spinner in their XI. The benchmark's top sevens drop by about a fifth over the same period, so this is a clear area where Thunder have struggled.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 15019%3 of 16
150–16948%13 of 27
170–18964%18 of 28
190–20967%4 of 6
210+100%4 of 4
The case for Hurricanes
- Projected XI totals 28.4 runs above average, with a batting edge of 9.8 runs and a bowling edge of 11.6 runs over Thunder.
- Tim David and Nathan Ellis are in strong form: David has 235 runs in his last 10 T20 matches, Ellis 13 wickets at an economy of 7.56.
Batting standout
Bowling standouts
Nathan Ellis
13 wkts, econ 7.56 in the last 10. Rated +4.9 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.9 runs better than an average bowler. His last 10 T20 matches produced 13 wickets at an economy of 7.56.
Adam Zampa
10 wkts, econ 8.77 in the last 10. Rated +4.2 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 4.2 runs better than an average bowler. His last 10 T20 matches yielded 10 wickets at an economy of 8.77.
The case for Thunder
- David Warner is in form, with 515 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 149.3.
- Daniel Sams and Chris Green provide dual threats: Sams is rated 1.3 runs better than an average bowler, Green 2.5.
Batting standout
David Warner
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
Rated 3.8 runs better than an average batter. His last 10 T20 matches brought 515 runs at a strike rate of 149.3, with 15 sixes.
Bowling weakness
Nathan McAndrew
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the ball.
Rated 1.6 runs worse than an average bowler. His last 10 T20 matches produced 15 wickets but at an economy of 10.63.