Josh Brown
311 runs, SR 150, 20 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.1 runs a game with the bat.
Brown has 311 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 150.2, with 20 sixes, and is rated 3.1 runs better than an average opener.
The sides
| Measure | Renegades | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 880T20s between the XI | 1,119T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 23.9T20 batting | 24.1T20 batting |
When Renegades bat
−0.23 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6+0.16MiddleOvers 7–15−0.41DeathOvers 16–20−0.35
When Heat bat
+0.12 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.27MiddleOvers 7–15+0.22DeathOvers 16–20+0.41
Renegades bat first
First innings169
Heat chase in17.5 overs
65%Heat win
35%Renegades win
Heat bat first
First innings181
Renegades short by38 runs
60%Heat win
40%Renegades win
Brisbane Heat favoured by about 9 runs, mostly through batting
Brisbane Heat are favoured, with a win chance of 62% against Melbourne Renegades' 38%, and they are also the stronger side on paper by about 9 runs. Most of that gap comes from batting: Heat's XI is rated 11.4 runs better than average with the bat against Renegades' 4.5, a difference of 6.9 runs, while their bowling is only 1.8 runs better. The projected first-innings totals reflect that: Heat 181, Renegades 169, against a par score of 179.
Renegades' top order averages 28 against left-arm finger spin since 2023, a third below their 42 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth. Heat have Matt Kuhnemann, a left-arm finger spinner, in our XI, and his rating of 1 run better than an average bowler over four overs makes that matchup the most telling point of the match.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 150No games
150–169No games
170–189100%1 of 1
190–209No games
210+100%1 of 1
The case for Renegades
- Josh Brown is rated 3.1 runs better than an average opener and has 311 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 150.2.
- Jason Behrendorff is rated 1.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs and took 6 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Jason Behrendorff
6 wkts, econ 9.28 in the last 10. Rated +1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Behrendorff took 6 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 9.28, and his bowling rating of 1.8 runs better than an average bowler over four overs makes him Renegades' main threat.
Bowling weakness
Will Sutherland
7 wkts, econ 9.15 in the last 10. Rated −2.0 runs a game with the ball.
Sutherland took 7 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches but conceded at 9.15 an over, and his bowling rating is 2 runs worse than an average bowler over four overs.
The case for Heat
- Batting strength: Heat's XI is rated 11.4 runs better than average with the bat, 6.9 runs more than Renegades' 4.5.
- Matthew Renshaw is rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter and has 270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches.
- Matt Kuhnemann is rated 1 run better than an average bowler over four overs and took 9 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.29.
Batting standouts
Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the bat.
Renshaw has 270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches at a strike rate of 126.2, and his batting rating of 3.4 runs better than an average player makes him Heat's standout batter.
Tom Curran
49 runs, SR 149, 1 sixes in the last 10. Rated +1.7 runs a game with the bat.
Curran took 13 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 7.8, and his bowling rating of 0.2 runs better than an average bowler over three overs adds depth.
Bowling weakness
Jack Wildermuth
10 wkts, econ 9.92 in the last 10. Rated −1.8 runs a game with the ball.
Wildermuth has a bowling rating 1.8 runs worse than an average bowler over three overs, despite 10 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches at an economy of 9.92.