Matthew Renshaw
270 runs, SR 126, 9 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.4 runs a game with the bat.
270 runs in his last 10 T20 matches and rated 3.4 runs better than an average batter. A steady contributor in the middle order.
The sides
| Measure | Heat | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| XI caps | 1,119T20s between the XI | 1,773T20s between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 24.1T20 batting | 23.7T20 batting |
When Heat bat
+0.08 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.15MiddleOvers 7–15+0.16DeathOvers 16–20+0.22
When Thunder bat
−0.16 an overPowerplayOvers 1–6−0.15MiddleOvers 7–15−0.31DeathOvers 16–20+0.09
Heat bat first
First innings178
Thunder short by29 runs
57%Heat win
43%Thunder win
Thunder bat first
First innings175
Heat chase in18.1 overs
62%Heat win
38%Thunder win
Brisbane Heat favoured by batting depth at the Gabba
Brisbane Heat are favoured, with a 60% win chance against Sydney Thunder's 40%. The edge is narrow: about 4 runs on paper, and it comes entirely from batting, where Heat's XI rates 11.4 runs better than an average side against Thunder's 6.9. Thunder are marginally the better bowling unit, 0.4 runs, but not enough to close the gap. The projected totals sit close to par: Heat 178, Thunder 175, against a par score of 179.
Thunder's top order has a clear problem against left-arm finger spin. Their top seven average well below their overall mark against that type, and Heat have Matt Kuhnemann, a left-arm finger spinner rated 1 run better than an average bowler, in our XI. That matchup is the single most telling point in the game.
What total is safe?
First inningsDefended
Under 1506%1 of 17
150–16960%9 of 15
170–18950%11 of 22
190–20979%11 of 14
210+67%2 of 3
The case for Heat
- Batting strength of 11.4 runs better than an average side, led by Renshaw and Bryant.
- Kuhnemann and Bartlett both rated 1 run better than an average bowler, giving the attack two reliable four-over options.
- A projected 178 batting first, close to the 179 par score at the Gabba.
Batting standout
The case for Thunder
- Bowling edge of 0.4 runs, with Green and Sangha both rated above average.
- Warner's 515 runs in his last 10 T20 matches gives them a proven top-order scorer.
- Sams and Green offer all-round depth, each rated positively with bat and ball.
Batting standout
David Warner
515 runs, SR 149, 15 sixes in the last 10. Rated +3.8 runs a game with the bat.
515 runs at a strike rate of 149 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 3.8 runs better than an average top-order batter. Thunder's main source of runs.
Bowling standouts
Chris Green
6 wkts, econ 7.72 in the last 10. Rated +2.5 runs a game with the ball.
6 wickets at an economy of 7.72 in his last 10 T20 matches, and rated 2.5 runs better than an average bowler. The pick of Thunder's attack.
Daniel Sams
15 wkts, econ 7.38 in the last 10. Rated +1.3 runs a game with the ball.
15 wickets at 7.38 in his last 10 T20 matches, rated 1.3 runs better than an average bowler. Gives Thunder a strong middle-overs option.
Bowling weaknesses
Nathan McAndrew
15 wkts, econ 10.63 in the last 10. Rated −1.6 runs a game with the ball.
15 wickets in his last 10 T20 matches but at an economy of 10.63, and rated 1.6 runs worse than an average bowler. A pressure point in Thunder's attack.
Ryan Hadley
2 wkts, econ 12.79 in the last 4. Rated −3.5 runs a game with the ball.
2 wickets at 12.79 in 4 BBL matches, rated 3.5 runs worse than an average bowler on limited data. A vulnerable option if he plays.