Oddsworth

Pace bowling

What fast bowlers lose when they lose their pace

· Blog

Every time a fast bowler lets one go, the crowd looks up at the big screen for the speed reading. Across men’s pace bowlers in Tests, ODIs and T20 cricket from 2011 to 2026, that number falls by about 4 kph on average between the ages of 26 and 36, and it starts falling years before anyone in the stands notices.

The usual logic says a fast bowler who loses pace loses his edge, and the batters start lining him up. In T20 cricket at least, he gets better while the number on the big screen goes down. Outside the first six overs the pace turns out to have been worth very little, and the gain he makes in its place shows up neither on the speed gun nor on the pitch map.

Do fast bowlers get slower with age?

A fast bowler is at his quickest in his first seasons, and from there the speed reading only goes one way. Unlike a spinner, whose speed holds flat at every age, he gives up about half a kph a season from his early twenties to his mid-30s, and by 34 and 35 he is 2.9 kph slower than he was at 26 and 27.

That is too little to spot on the big screen from one summer to the next, and too steady for any bowler to escape across a career.

How much pace fast bowlers lose with ageChange in a men's pace bowler's typical match speed against his own at 26–27, kph. Tests, ODIs and T20s, 2011–26

Pace bowlers -4.0

When do fast bowlers reach their peak pace?

Fast bowlers reach their peak pace far earlier than most people would guess. The familiar picture has a young bowler filling out and growing into his strength before he hits top speed in his mid-20s, yet the speed gun shows no rise to a peak at that age at all.

His fastest seasons are his first. Between 17 and 21 he bowls 1.3 kph quicker than he will at 26 and 27, and by 22 and 23 that gap is already down to 1.0 kph. The speed gun never takes him back there.

Whatever a bowler adds in control and craft between 22 and 26, he adds it while he is already slowing down. The bowler who arrives at 26 as the finished article is a little slower than the young man who first came into the side.

Do older fast bowlers just bowl more slower balls?

An older fast bowler’s quickest balls slow by the same amount as his typical ball, which rules out the idea that he is simply bowling more slower balls.

That means the whole spread of his speeds moves down together. A 34-year-old has no young man’s bouncer kept in reserve behind a diet of cutters and off-pace balls. The top end of his range has gone the same way as the middle.

This matters for everything that follows. If older bowlers were simply mixing in more slower balls, any gain could be put down to a change of tactics. They are slower across the board, so whatever they gain comes despite the pace they have lost.

How much does losing pace cost a fast bowler?

The pace a fast bowler loses costs him next to nothing in runs. Look at the seasons when the same bowler is quicker or slower than usual, and each kph he loses costs him about 0.01 runs an over against par, the measure of how well he bowls.

At that rate, the 3 kph he loses between 26 and 35 costs him about 0.03 runs an over. Spread across a full four-over T20 spell, that is a fraction of a single run.

The powerplay is the one place where the speed reading still earns its keep. There, with the ball new and the field up, each kph a bowler loses costs him about 0.08 runs an over against par, and older bowlers are no better in the powerplay than they were at 26.

Do fast bowlers get better with age in T20 cricket?

A fast bowler gets better in T20 cricket in his 30s, by a margin that dwarfs anything the lost pace takes away. By 34 and 35 he saves 0.55 runs an over against his own record at 26 and 27, at the very age when the big screen says he is near his slowest.

The gain comes from the middle and death overs. From 34 an older bowler sends down a little less of his work at the death, about 5 fewer of every 100 balls, yet that gentler role does not account for the gain, because he is better than his younger self in those overs too. The improvement shows most clearly in the T20 leagues of the 2020s, where the older bowlers have done most of their work.

Older bowlers save more runs in T20 cricketRuns an over saved against par by a men's pace bowler, against his own at 26–27. Above the line saves runs, below costs them. 2011–26

T20s 0.6ODIs -0.3

Are older fast bowlers better in Tests and ODIs too?

In ODIs an older fast bowler is no better than he was at 26, and at 34 and 35 he costs about 0.26 runs an over more, a small drift the wrong way.

In Tests, a bowler’s value against par shows no clear change with age at all. The pace he has lost by his mid-30s leaves no mark on what he is worth with the red ball.

So the improvement belongs to the 20-over game. In the longer formats a fast bowler in his 30s holds his value about as well as his small loss of pace suggests he would, and only in T20 does he become better than his younger self.

Do fast bowlers bowl shorter as they get older?

They do, by a little. At 34 a fast bowler pitches the ball about half a metre shorter than he did at 26, with 2 to 3 more short balls in every hundred, and that shift holds in Tests, ODIs and T20 cricket alike.

It would be easy to read that as a plan, with a bowler who can no longer hurry batters for pace turning to the short ball to unsettle them instead. The short ball pays an older bowler no better than it did when he was younger, though, so the shift to shorter lengths is no weapon he has learned to use.

Because it turns up with the red ball as much as the white, the shorter length looks like something that simply comes with age, whatever format a fast bowler is playing.

Are older fast bowlers more accurate?

Older fast bowlers are no more accurate, and in T20 cricket their aim gets a little looser with every season. Their line barely moves, drifting only a few centimetres wider of off stump, yet it spreads slightly wider around that, and their lengths spread wider too.

That wider spread of length is a T20 habit, because in Tests and ODIs an older bowler’s variety stays where it was. Allow for the looser line and the more varied length, and his T20 gain stays the same size, so neither his aim nor his variety is what makes him better.

Jason Holder and Trent Boult: slower, better in T20 leagues

Jason Holder and Trent Boult show the pattern inside single careers. Holder’s typical T20 speed was 132 kph up to the age of 28, and 128 kph after 32. Up to 28 he cost 1.1 runs an over more than par, and after 32 he has saved 0.3 runs an over.

Boult bowled at a typical T20 speed of 137 kph up to 28, and at 134 kph after 32. In those earlier T20s he cost 0.25 runs an over more than par, and after 32 he has bowled at par. Both men lost pace, and both have got better against par as they have got older.

Their pitch maps can look like the answer. Boult’s is more tightly grouped on a good length than it was: since he turned 32, 52% of his balls have landed 6 to 9 metres from the stumps, against 38% up to 28. Holder’s has hardly moved, with 39% and 40% landing there either side of 30 and a few more short balls since he turned 32. Older T20 fast bowlers as a group land no more balls on a good length than they did at 26, so a tighter aim is not what makes them better, whatever Boult’s map suggests.

Where Jason Holder and Trent Boult land it, up to 28 and from 32Share of each bowler's balls by where they pitched, men's T20s with tracked lengths

Holder up to 28

FullOff side2m4m6m8m10m12m0.3% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps2.5% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps2.2% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps2.9% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps2.9% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps2.2% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps2.5% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps2.2% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps4.8% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps3.2% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps4.5% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps6.4% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps2.5% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps5.4% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps5.1% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps3.5% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps3.5% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps1.3% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps3.5% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 12–13m from the stumpsLeg sideShort

Holder from 32

FullOff side2m4m6m8m10m12m0.0% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.8% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.8% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.0% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps2.1% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.4% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.0% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.4% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps2.6% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps2.7% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps3.2% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps3.0% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps3.3% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps5.1% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps3.7% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps0.0% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps2.4% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps3.0% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps2.6% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps2.1% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.7% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps3.4% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps3.2% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.8% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps2.4% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps2.6% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps2.6% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps1.7% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps2.3% of balls, 12–13m from the stumpsLeg sideShort

Boult up to 28

FullOff side2m4m6m8m10m12m0.2% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps2.1% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.4% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps2.5% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.4% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps2.5% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps2.8% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps2.1% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps3.4% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.4% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps4.3% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps4.3% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps3.2% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps4.8% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps2.5% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps2.7% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps3.0% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps2.8% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps2.8% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 12–13m from the stumpsLeg sideShort

Boult from 32

FullOff side2m4m6m8m10m12m0.0% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.8% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 0–1m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.8% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.8% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 1–2m from the stumps0.0% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 2–3m from the stumps0.0% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.7% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.7% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 3–4m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps1.5% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 4–5m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps2.2% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.9% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps1.1% of balls, 5–6m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps2.1% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps3.3% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps3.2% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps3.6% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 6–7m from the stumps0.0% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps3.3% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps7.9% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps4.5% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps8.7% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps3.9% of balls, 7–8m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.5% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.5% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps1.8% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 8–9m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.2% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.6% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.0% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.7% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps1.7% of balls, 9–10m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.7% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.9% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 10–11m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.6% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 11–12m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.8% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.2% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.3% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.1% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.4% of balls, 12–13m from the stumps0.5% of balls, 12–13m from the stumpsLeg sideShort

So what makes up for a fast bowler’s lost pace?

Outside the powerplay, a fast bowler’s lost pace needs little making up, because it was worth so little to begin with. Bowling shorter does not explain his gain either, since he pitches shorter in Tests and ODIs as well and gets no better there. Yet in the T20 leagues he is worth more to his side at 34 than he was at 26, with several kph fewer on the big screen, and the gain comes as much from wickets taken as from runs kept down.

The speed gun and the pitch map both show an older fast bowler changing, and neither accounts for the extra runs he saves. Slower balls, shorter lengths, his line and his accuracy have all been ruled out. What is left is the part cricket people call experience: knowing which ball to bowl and when to bowl it, in the format where a bad ball is punished fastest.

A T20 side that marks a fast bowler down because the number on the big screen is falling is reading the wrong number. Whatever he has gained, it sits somewhere the instruments can’t reach.

Share