Babar Azam
406 runs in the last 10 ODIs. Career average 52.9, strike rate 86.
The sides
| Measure | Pakistan | Sri Lanka |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 16876th of 20 | 16248th of 20 |
| Home advantage | +130Rating points | –Touring |
| XI caps | 521ODIs between the XI | 471ODIs between the XI |
| Top-seven average | 37.7ODI batting in Pakistan | 28.8ODI batting in Pakistan |
| Bowling average | 31.6Five main bowlers, ODIs | 36.6Five main bowlers, ODIs |
When Pakistan bat
+0.42 an overPowerplayOvers 1–10+0.23MiddleOvers 11–45+0.54DeathOvers 46–50−0.04
When Sri Lanka bat
−0.06 an overPowerplayOvers 1–10+0.29MiddleOvers 11–45−0.10DeathOvers 46–50−0.44
First innings
307Pakistan bat first
270Sri Lanka bat first
295Par
287Average here since 2019, 14 innings
375Highest here, Pakistan 2015
Pakistan favoured: stronger XI and home advantage
Pakistan are favoured at home, with a 73 per cent win chance, and their XI rates 30.8 runs a match above an average Full Member side to Sri Lanka's 5.1. Pakistan's batting is 26.6 runs above average and their bowling 4.2 runs above; Sri Lanka's batting is 15.4 above but their bowling 10.3 below. The projection has Pakistan making 307 batting first to Sri Lanka's 270, against a par of 295.
Sri Lanka's top seven average 54.6 against wrist spin since 2023, 32 per cent above their 41.5 against all bowling, where Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth; Shadab Khan, in our predicted XI, gives Pakistan a wrist-spin bowler of that type.
What total is safe?
ODIs in Pakistan since 2019
First inningsDefended
Under 2509%1 of 11
250–27950%3 of 6
280–30950%6 of 12
310–33988%7 of 8
340+40%2 of 5
The case for Pakistan
- Pakistan's XI rates 30.8 runs a match above an average Full Member side, against Sri Lanka's 5.1, with batting 26.6 and bowling 4.2 runs above average.
- They are at home with a 73 per cent win chance, and the projection has them making 307 batting first to Sri Lanka's 270, against a par of 295.
- Babar Azam has 406 runs in his last 10 matches, and Shaheen Shah Afridi has 19 wickets in his last 10.
Batting standout
Bowling standout
Haris Rauf
20 wickets in the last 10 ODIs. Career economy 5.79.
The case for Sri Lanka
- Sri Lanka's top seven average 54.6 against wrist spin since 2023, 32 per cent above their 41.5 against all bowling, while Full Member top sevens drop by a tenth.
- Pavan Rathnayake has 506 runs in his last 10 matches at an average of 50.6 and a strike rate of 100.2, and Kusal Mendis has 461 runs in his last 10.
- Sri Lanka's top seven average 41.5 against all bowling since 2023, close to Pakistan's 41.7, at a higher strike rate of 91.2 to 89.6.
Batting standout
Pavan Rathnayake
506 runs in the last 10 ODIs. Career average 50.6, strike rate 100.
Bowling standout
Dilshan Madushanka
15 wickets in the last 10 ODIs. Career economy 6.22.